ATL: IRENE - Models

[HurrMark]

looks like it nailed the outer banks and into virginia beach to me...

I am looking at the center of the "L", and it doesn't look like it's on land...might be wrong.

I wonder what the NHC will do at 5...I haven't seen a single run that has taken it in as far west as in the 11 AM advisory, but there was a slight trend westward in the 12Z runs...

[BUD]

Does anyone think the trend east has stopped and a west trend may bring the storm back to Myrtle Beach?

I hope not we do not need it.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles stay east of SE US and midatlantic including the Carolinas:

[Meteorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles stay east of SE US and midatlantic including the Carolinas:

What was the last hurricane to track like that... Bob?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Go to shows you. Models are useless more then 2 days out. So many were so sure it was going to hit S. Fl. when it was still an invest. You can only laugh.

[sicktght311]

12Z GFS ensembles stay east of SE US and midatlantic including the Carolinas:

What was the last hurricane to track like that... Bob?

Does not bode well for long island :/

[gatorcane]

Long island is still a long ways out (no pun intended). Models can easily shift more.

[xironman]

12z Euro +120

Hello Mid Atlantic



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This still looks offshore to me...

Looks like it just destroyed VA Beach to me (927mb)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cheezyWXguy]

How is it even possible to maintain that kind of pressure that far north??? If that verifies, thatd have to be one of the worst hits in history

[Aric Dunn]

How is it even possible to maintain that kind of pressure that far north??? If that verifies, thatd have to be one of the worst hits in history

Thats the Euro too.... hmmm

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

How is it even possible to maintain that kind of pressure that far north??? If that verifies, thatd have to be one of the worst hits in history

According to a recent study (2007/8) Hurricane Edna in 1954 had a pressure of 948 mb at Nantucket landfall & 950 mb at Cap Cod landfall, while last year Hurricane Igor had a pressure of 950 mb when it was just East of Newfoundland. So it, very low pressures, can happen that far north.

[seussianagenda]

Just got inside word from a family member that shelter workers are on alert for friday through monday for the city of virginia beach.

[xironman]

12Z GFS ensembles stay east of SE US and midatlantic including the Carolinas:

Very impressive set of ensemble members, real nail biter between the GFS and the Euro. From what I hear the Euro members are in line with the OP

[L1GSXR750]

Just got inside word from a family member that shelter workers are on alert for friday through monday for the city of virginia beach.

I also just got word Navy ships are moving out. They are pretty positive it will be a direct hit.

[petit_bois]

Just got inside word from a family member that shelter workers are on alert for friday through monday for the city of virginia beach.

I also just got word Navy ships are moving out. They are pretty positive it will be a direct hit.

Very common for navy ships to move offshore if storm may be in the area.
It's a great training opportunity.
the Navy is not "pretty possitive" it will be a direct hit... I can assure you.
The current forcast suggests a direct hit. I'm "pretty possitive" the forcast can change.

[EDR1222]

Hopefully the models keep trending further eastward and with a little luck, maybe Irene leaves everybody alone.

[bzukajo]

NYC Mayer Just gave a press conference about the earthquake. He basically said we are fine, but we need to keep a very close eye on this hurricane coming up the coast.

[Jevo]

Should be getting the 18z GFS models firing up here soon.. ususally 530pm EST if i remember correctly

[PTrackerLA]

Hardly a model left that's even clipping the Outer Banks now. Amazing. Still could feel some serious effects and of course will have to watch for an actual Northeastern landfall.

[CronkPSU]

what did the NAM show...synoptics wise of course!