WPAC: TALAS - Remnants (1112/15W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 97W)
am i getting this correctly? talas which means SHARPNESS in tagalog is forecast to hit east japan while nanmadol hits western japan?!?
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 97W)
euro6208 wrote:iwo to in fire...
talas is so large, it nearly covers the entire open waters of the wpac!
How would talas compared to Typhoon tip (1979) in terms of size? Thanks.
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-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Why isn't the title renamed to TS Talas?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
18Z comparisons:
JMA:
ZCZC 319
WTPQ51 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 20.5N 139.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 22.3N 139.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 271800UTC 23.3N 139.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 281800UTC 24.5N 139.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 291800UTC 26.0N 139.7E 350NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 301800UTC 28.1N 139.6E 450NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =
NNNN
WTPN32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 139.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 139.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.3N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.1N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.8N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.4N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.5N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.3N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 28.3N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 139.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 251215Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE OUTER SOUTHERN,
EASTERN TO NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH LOWER 10 TO 15 KNOT CENTRAL
WINDS, INDICATIVE OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE ASCAT PASS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, BUT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK POLEWARD BETWEEN TWO
COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU
96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. TS
15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS
INITIALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR GFDN, WHICH IS AN OUTLIER PULLING THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST WEST OF NORTHWARD AT
10 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LONG
EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERIES, CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND IS THE CENTROID OF
SEVERAL VORTICES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF THE LLCC AND AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 42 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
POINT SOURCE AND SOUTHWEST OF A TROUGH IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING EASTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, RESPECTIVELY, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED OVER THE DATELINE JUST NORTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASOING BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM
AND SETS THE FORECAST REASONING.
B. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK
AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG CYCLONE (DCI) TO THE WEST,
CAUSING A DEFLECTION TO THE LEFT OF TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS TALAS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD,
ALTHOUGH LESS PROUNOUNCED DUE TO LINGERING DCI EFFECT, AS IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED AND WIDELY SPREAD WITH WBAR ON THE EXTREME
LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNLIKELY WESTWARD TRACK PROJECTED BY
WBAR.//
NNNN
TPPN12 PGTW 251826
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 25/1732Z
C. 20.4N
D. 139.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .40 YIELDS A 2.5
DT. MET AND PT YEILD A 2.0. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BELMONDO
Earlier ASCAT:
JMA:
ZCZC 319
WTPQ51 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 20.5N 139.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 22.3N 139.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 271800UTC 23.3N 139.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 281800UTC 24.5N 139.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 291800UTC 26.0N 139.7E 350NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 301800UTC 28.1N 139.6E 450NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =
NNNN
WTPN32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 139.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 139.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.3N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.1N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.8N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.4N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.5N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.3N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 28.3N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 139.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 251215Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE OUTER SOUTHERN,
EASTERN TO NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH LOWER 10 TO 15 KNOT CENTRAL
WINDS, INDICATIVE OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE ASCAT PASS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, BUT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK POLEWARD BETWEEN TWO
COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU
96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. TS
15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS
INITIALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR GFDN, WHICH IS AN OUTLIER PULLING THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST WEST OF NORTHWARD AT
10 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LONG
EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERIES, CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND IS THE CENTROID OF
SEVERAL VORTICES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF THE LLCC AND AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 42 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
POINT SOURCE AND SOUTHWEST OF A TROUGH IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING EASTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, RESPECTIVELY, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED OVER THE DATELINE JUST NORTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASOING BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM
AND SETS THE FORECAST REASONING.
B. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK
AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG CYCLONE (DCI) TO THE WEST,
CAUSING A DEFLECTION TO THE LEFT OF TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS TALAS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD,
ALTHOUGH LESS PROUNOUNCED DUE TO LINGERING DCI EFFECT, AS IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED AND WIDELY SPREAD WITH WBAR ON THE EXTREME
LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNLIKELY WESTWARD TRACK PROJECTED BY
WBAR.//
NNNN
TPPN12 PGTW 251826
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 25/1732Z
C. 20.4N
D. 139.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .40 YIELDS A 2.5
DT. MET AND PT YEILD A 2.0. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BELMONDO
Earlier ASCAT:
0 likes
Very interesting presentation, its got a huge surface coverage even if the winds don't expand that far...very impressive size!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: WPAC: TALAS - Tropical Storm
just seen the forecast from euro... a large typhoon hitting in the vicinity of southern japan, the world's most populous metropolitan area with upwards of 35 MILLION people!
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1000.6mb/ 39.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 3.0 3.7
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1000.6mb/ 39.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 3.0 3.7
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
00Z JMA advisory, upgraded to STS:
ZCZC 628
WTPQ51 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 20.8N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 22.3N 139.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 280000UTC 23.7N 139.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 290000UTC 25.3N 139.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 300000UTC 26.3N 139.4E 350NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 310000UTC 28.0N 139.6E 450NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =
NNNN
TPPN12 PGTW 260036
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 25/2332Z
C. 20.5N
D. 139.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .50 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDS A 2.5 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BELMONDO
ZCZC 628
WTPQ51 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 20.8N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 22.3N 139.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 280000UTC 23.7N 139.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 290000UTC 25.3N 139.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 300000UTC 26.3N 139.4E 350NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 310000UTC 28.0N 139.6E 450NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =
NNNN
TPPN12 PGTW 260036
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 25/2332Z
C. 20.5N
D. 139.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .50 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDS A 2.5 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BELMONDO
0 likes
03Z JTWC advisory:
WTPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 139.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.5N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.2N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.5N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.7N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 27.0N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 29.2N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 139.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
251215Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 35- TO 40-KNOT WINDS ALONG THE OUTER
SOUTHERN, EASTERN TO NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH LOWER 10- TO 15-KNOT
CENTRAL WINDS, INDICATIVE OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND A
252308Z SSMIS 37GHZ WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) IS PREVENTING OUTFLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY, BUT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO PROVIDE A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION IS NO LONGER LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE
LARGE SEPARATION BETWEEN STY 14W AND TS 15W.
B. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY AND SOMEWHAT
ERRATICALLY (ALTHOUGH STILL POLEWARD).
C. AFTER TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. TS 15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS
INITIALLY WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFDN, WHICH IS AN
OUTLIER PULLING THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK.//
NNNN
WTPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 139.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.5N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.2N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.5N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.7N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 27.0N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 29.2N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 139.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
251215Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 35- TO 40-KNOT WINDS ALONG THE OUTER
SOUTHERN, EASTERN TO NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH LOWER 10- TO 15-KNOT
CENTRAL WINDS, INDICATIVE OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND A
252308Z SSMIS 37GHZ WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) IS PREVENTING OUTFLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY, BUT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO PROVIDE A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION IS NO LONGER LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE
LARGE SEPARATION BETWEEN STY 14W AND TS 15W.
B. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY AND SOMEWHAT
ERRATICALLY (ALTHOUGH STILL POLEWARD).
C. AFTER TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. TS 15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS
INITIALLY WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFDN, WHICH IS AN
OUTLIER PULLING THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK.//
NNNN
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ECM has what looks like quite a brutal strike on Japan, very impressive looking run...
Intensity on the rise on the forecasts as well...
Intensity on the rise on the forecasts as well...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
JTWC keeps this weak for now at 40 kt even as the JMA has it at 55.
WTPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 21.4N 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 139.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.2N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.8N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.6N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.8N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 27.6N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 29.9N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 139.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETY PASS DEPICTS 35- TO 40-KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN TO EASTERN AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES, WITH LOWER
10- TO 15-KNOT CENTRAL WINDS. THIS IS CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE
MSI WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY, BUT A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST HAS OPENED AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THESE ARE
EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO
COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY AND SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY POLEWARD.
AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. TS 15W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM
SST'S. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
WTPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 21.4N 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 139.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.2N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.8N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.6N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.8N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 27.6N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 29.9N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 139.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETY PASS DEPICTS 35- TO 40-KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN TO EASTERN AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES, WITH LOWER
10- TO 15-KNOT CENTRAL WINDS. THIS IS CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE
MSI WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY, BUT A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST HAS OPENED AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THESE ARE
EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO
COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY AND SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY POLEWARD.
AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. TS 15W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM
SST'S. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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ECM still showing a very impressive solution for Talas as it rakes Japan as it exits to the north as a large and powerful Typhoon, probably somewhat similar to Irene at the moment in many ways.
Track doesn't look too straight forward, could be some changes down the line...
Track doesn't look too straight forward, could be some changes down the line...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: WPAC: TALAS - Severe Tropical Storm
WTPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 22.1N 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.9N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.4N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.4N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 27.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 28.5N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 30.9N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 139.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND
EXPANDED INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. A 261200Z ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS WIDE SWATHS OF 35- TO 40-KNOT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES,
WITH WEAKER WINDS TOWARDS THE CENTER, CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND ENCLOSED IN A NOTCH FEATURE ON A 261023Z 37HZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
A WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY, HOWEVER, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS AN EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, GENERATED BY THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER UP TO TAU 36, AFTERWHICH, A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL STEER THE SYSTEM
ON A NORTHWEST PROGRESSION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS TALAS WILL ROUND THE STR AND BEGIN TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL
ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND OFFSET INCREASING VWS, PROMOTING
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THE TWO STEERING FORCES BUT
SPREADS OUT TO ABOUT 30 DEGREES WITH NOGAPS AS THE LEFTMOST AND GFS
THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS OVER BUT FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST TO OFFSET WBAR'S
ERRONEOUSLY SLOW STORM MOTION, THEN SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT TO ADJUST
FOR NOGAPS' EXCESSIVE PULL TO THE LEFT.//
getting better organized as deep convection has expanded over the northern quadrant
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 22.1N 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.9N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.4N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.4N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 27.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 28.5N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 30.9N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 139.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND
EXPANDED INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. A 261200Z ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS WIDE SWATHS OF 35- TO 40-KNOT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES,
WITH WEAKER WINDS TOWARDS THE CENTER, CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND ENCLOSED IN A NOTCH FEATURE ON A 261023Z 37HZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
A WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY, HOWEVER, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS AN EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, GENERATED BY THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER UP TO TAU 36, AFTERWHICH, A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL STEER THE SYSTEM
ON A NORTHWEST PROGRESSION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS TALAS WILL ROUND THE STR AND BEGIN TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL
ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND OFFSET INCREASING VWS, PROMOTING
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THE TWO STEERING FORCES BUT
SPREADS OUT TO ABOUT 30 DEGREES WITH NOGAPS AS THE LEFTMOST AND GFS
THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS OVER BUT FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST TO OFFSET WBAR'S
ERRONEOUSLY SLOW STORM MOTION, THEN SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT TO ADJUST
FOR NOGAPS' EXCESSIVE PULL TO THE LEFT.//
getting better organized as deep convection has expanded over the northern quadrant
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: TALAS - Severe Tropical Storm
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2011 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 22:18:04 N Lon : 139:48:01 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 987.6mb/ 41.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.1 3.1
Center Temp : -27.1C Cloud Region Temp : -51.8C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 148km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.7 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2011 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 22:18:04 N Lon : 139:48:01 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 987.6mb/ 41.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.1 3.1
Center Temp : -27.1C Cloud Region Temp : -51.8C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 148km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.7 degrees
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
ZCZC 662
WTPQ51 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 22.7N 139.4E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 24.1N 139.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 281800UTC 25.3N 139.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 291800UTC 26.8N 139.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 301800UTC 28.5N 139.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
120HF 311800UTC 31.4N 141.3E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT =
NNNN
TPPN12 PGTW 261816
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 26/1732Z
C. 22.5N
D. 139.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .55 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 3.0. DBO PT AND
MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1613Z 22.5N 139.4E MMHS
UEHARA
WTPQ51 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 22.7N 139.4E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 24.1N 139.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 281800UTC 25.3N 139.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 291800UTC 26.8N 139.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 301800UTC 28.5N 139.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
120HF 311800UTC 31.4N 141.3E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT =
NNNN
TPPN12 PGTW 261816
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 26/1732Z
C. 22.5N
D. 139.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .55 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 3.0. DBO PT AND
MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1613Z 22.5N 139.4E MMHS
UEHARA
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-
RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TALAS - Severe Tropical Storm
A lot of DAA going in to this system right now. Great news as it is keeping it weak, also good news is I noticed on the 31st a trough should run across Japan kicking this out and away from the country. Hope that stays the scenario.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
-
RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TALAS - Severe Tropical Storm
Another view of the DAA
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
WTPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 22.6N 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 139.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.1N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.6N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.2N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.8N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.2N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 27.4N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 30.0N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 139.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A RELATIVELY OPEN
CENTER AND A SLOW TREND TOWARD CONSOLIDATION AROUND THE CORE. A
261907Z SSMI SERIES (37H AND 85H) INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH ALL CONVECTION
DISPLACED OUTWARDS FROM THE CENTER. A 261200Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE DISPLACED TOWARDS THE OUTER PERIPHERY
OF THE STORM, AND THAT OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND 180NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO
THE NORTH IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
OVERALL, THE SYSTEM HAS DECENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS CURRENTLY 13 KNOTS AND DECREASING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS 15W IS BEING
STEERED POLEWARD BY AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS
IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF-
SHORE OF TOKYO AND BLOCKING MOVEMENT TOWARDS HONSHU. TS 15W WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT POLEWARD IN A WEAK AND COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS ERRATIC,
BUT CONSENSUS IS BALANCING THE OUTLIERS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND THE JGSM SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z,
270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14W
(NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
TXPQ26 KNES 262113
TCSWNP
A. 15W (TALAS)
B. 26/2032Z
C. 22.5N
D. 139.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...DT=3.0 BASED ON .7 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=3.0.
MET=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
26/1613Z 22.4N 139.6E AMSU
...SCHWARTZ
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WTPQ21 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 22.8N 139.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 23.8N 139.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 290000UTC 25.0N 139.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 300000UTC 26.4N 139.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
TPPN12 PGTW 270018
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 26/2332Z
C. 22.7N
D. 139.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .55 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 3.0. DBO PT AND
MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1907Z 22.7N 139.4E SSMI
26/2053Z 22.7N 139.4E SSMS
UEHARA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 22.8N 139.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 23.8N 139.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 290000UTC 25.0N 139.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 300000UTC 26.4N 139.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
TPPN12 PGTW 270018
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 26/2332Z
C. 22.7N
D. 139.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .55 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 3.0. DBO PT AND
MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1907Z 22.7N 139.4E SSMI
26/2053Z 22.7N 139.4E SSMS
UEHARA
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WTPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 22.8N 139.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 139.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.3N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.9N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.5N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.5N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 27.2N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 28.3N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 30.6N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 139.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT IS
CONSOLIDATING AND ORGANIZING AROUND A RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 262053Z SSMIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING IS NOW WRAPPING NEARLY COMPLETELY AROUND THE LLCC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORMING, WHILE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW EXISTS
OVER THE OTHER QUADRANTS. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY COMBINED WITH THE
BROAD, RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE LLCC STILL BEAR THE SIGNATURE OF A
MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT A 262000Z AMSUB TEMPERATURE PROFILE REVEALS
A STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM CORE ANOMALY. OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE,
GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 180NM FROM THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. TS 15W IS BEING NUDGED POLEWARD BY AN ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS. THE ANTICYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 15W WILL SUSTAIN SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IN A WEAK AND
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, AS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXTENDS ALONG THE
TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS ERRATIC DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAR
STEERING MECHANISM, BUT CONSENSUS IS BALANCING THE OUTLIERS AND
REPRESENTING A GOOD AVERAGE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS AND THE JGSM SOLUTION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS TALAS WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL BEND TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A LARGE
OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ALONG THE 155TH MERIDIAN. THE BLOCK WILL PREVENT
THE SYSTEM FROM TURNING SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST, LEAVING ONLY A
NARROW ALLEY FOR POLEWARD MOVEMENT, BETWEEN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE AND MAINLAND JAPAN. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAKE FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 22.8N 139.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 139.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.3N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.9N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.5N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.5N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 27.2N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 28.3N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 30.6N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 139.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT IS
CONSOLIDATING AND ORGANIZING AROUND A RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 262053Z SSMIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING IS NOW WRAPPING NEARLY COMPLETELY AROUND THE LLCC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORMING, WHILE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW EXISTS
OVER THE OTHER QUADRANTS. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY COMBINED WITH THE
BROAD, RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE LLCC STILL BEAR THE SIGNATURE OF A
MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT A 262000Z AMSUB TEMPERATURE PROFILE REVEALS
A STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM CORE ANOMALY. OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE,
GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 180NM FROM THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. TS 15W IS BEING NUDGED POLEWARD BY AN ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS. THE ANTICYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 15W WILL SUSTAIN SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IN A WEAK AND
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, AS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXTENDS ALONG THE
TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS ERRATIC DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAR
STEERING MECHANISM, BUT CONSENSUS IS BALANCING THE OUTLIERS AND
REPRESENTING A GOOD AVERAGE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS AND THE JGSM SOLUTION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS TALAS WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL BEND TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A LARGE
OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ALONG THE 155TH MERIDIAN. THE BLOCK WILL PREVENT
THE SYSTEM FROM TURNING SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST, LEAVING ONLY A
NARROW ALLEY FOR POLEWARD MOVEMENT, BETWEEN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE AND MAINLAND JAPAN. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAKE FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120.//
NNNN
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