ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Vortex]

Our local met (Miami) has mentioned this (before it was an invest) for 2 evenings now. This is unusual, as they usually don't mention stuff that doesn't seem to be coming our way or that is far away.

Channel 7?

[Meso]

One thing that has always bugged me about the model runs of this storm was the way that land interaction didn't seem to hinder it much in areas where storms are often shredded. But looking at that huge well established circulation, it should be able to handle land interaction a lot better than say Emily which had a very fickle, weak LLC which was at no point very well established. This may be one 'tough' storm. Once it gets going it's sure going to get interesting.

As expected, dry air is still a hinderance and in fact the exposure of the dry air to the system got worse over the past 6 hours as it broke through most of the moisture on the north east side. Though this is expect and forecast. Still looks as though it has a good chance once it reaches near PR.

This one is sure to provide some interesting tracking and 'exciting' times.

[maxx9512]

97L is huge. Using Google Earth, satellite, and a best quesstimate (spelling?) from what I can tell it's circulation is
roughly 700 miles north to south and 750 miles east to west. I might be conservative. That's BIG!

[KWT]

Meso, i totally agree, i'm not sure the GFS is at all realisitic with regards to its strength both off Hispaniola and Cuba.

ECM seems to have a better grip on that side of things.

It has got a big circulation, but alot of that is also dragging the SAL towards it so its going to be a constant battle for a while to come again that.

[Aric Dunn]

What i will say is the large circulation isn't a good thing at all, both the system and the US.

Will mean it will take a while to pull itself together, esp given the huge area of weak/moderate SAL to the north/west of the system...

Don't expect anything berfore 55-60W....but no doubt this one has got to be really closely watched.

A weaker storm draws southward. That would more likely send it towards, or even south of, the islands.

whats interesting is that although that is normally the case. the models this time... either weak or strong still mostly pull it north of hispanola. the can be seen in the well established steering flow in both the low and mid levels. a wnw track should happen even as a wave. although the extent of the wnw motion would be more pronounced if it were stronger do to rotational effects of the circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

Last I saw the ULL to the north was supposed to weaken and move to the N...what kind of effect would that have if it pans out?

Yes all the models move the ull nw and weakens it slightly. timing is of course key 97L is moving a little faster than the ull and could run into a little shear before it moves out. which could actually help get the convection going.

[BatzVI]

What i will say is the large circulation isn't a good thing at all, both the system and the US.

Will mean it will take a while to pull itself together, esp given the huge area of weak/moderate SAL to the north/west of the system...

Don't expect anything berfore 55-60W....but no doubt this one has got to be really closely watched.

A weaker storm draws southward. That would more likely send it towards, or even south of, the islands.

whats interesting is that although that is normally the case. the models this time... either weak or strong still mostly pull it north of hispanola. the can be seen in the well established steering flow in both the low and mid levels. a wnw track should happen even as a wave. although the extent of the wnw motion would be more pronounced if it were stronger do to rotational effects of the circulation.

Which would mean more in our direction (the northern islands), correct?

[Aric Dunn]

well its a big system... most of the islands will feel something at some point. the southern islands seem at least right now in the clear except for some squalls

[setxwxgurl]

Geez that is huge!

[KWT]

whats interesting is that although that is normally the case. the models this time... either weak or strong still mostly pull it north of hispanola. the can be seen in the well established steering flow in both the low and mid levels. a wnw track should happen even as a wave. although the extent of the wnw motion would be more pronounced if it were stronger do to rotational effects of the circulation.

nopt sure thats really the case, model models take it right through hispaniola or just east, its really only the ECM that goes north of the islands and even then its a VERY close call with Hispaniola.

Much depends on where the exact center tries to develop.

PS...fwiw I do think it will end up going a little north of hispaniola though!)

[gatorcane]

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Looks like it is heading 280-285 or so...definitely a bit of a north of west movement, even though it is a shallow system.

It certainly looks like it may not be a Caribbean runner and a track through the Antilles...or just north of the Antilles is possible, like the GFS has been consistently calling for.

[painkillerr]

What is the feeling for the northern islands? Seems everyone is worried about SFla already....I know it's early, so monitoring for now..

From my chair in San Juan, I'm worried sick!

[Aric Dunn]

whats interesting is that although that is normally the case. the models this time... either weak or strong still mostly pull it north of hispanola. the can be seen in the well established steering flow in both the low and mid levels. a wnw track should happen even as a wave. although the extent of the wnw motion would be more pronounced if it were stronger do to rotational effects of the circulation.

nopt sure thats really the case, model models take it right through hispaniola or just east, its really only the ECM that goes north of the islands and even then its a VERY close call with Hispaniola.

Much depends on where the exact center tries to develop.

it was more a reference to the wnw motion regardless of strength. The models have been through it just north of it.. but rarely just south of it. point being the synoptic pattern points to a wnw track as it approaches the islands.

[SFLcane]

97L floater up on ssd but iam not sure what image they put on there.Epac

edit..There trying to fix it.

[Aric Dunn]

Good and floater

its like having glasses... I can see now

[KWT]

SFLcane, good to see they've put a floater on it.

Convection is a little patchy but its a good sign that convection has been slowly increasing in coverage over the last 36hrs.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

What i will say is the large circulation isn't a good thing at all, both the system and the US.

Will mean it will take a while to pull itself together, esp given the huge area of weak/moderate SAL to the north/west of the system...

Don't expect anything berfore 55-60W....but no doubt this one has got to be really closely watched.

A weaker storm draws southward. That would more likely send it towards, or even south of, the islands.

whats interesting is that although that is normally the case. the models this time... either weak or strong still mostly pull it north of hispanola. the can be seen in the well established steering flow in both the low and mid levels. a wnw track should happen even as a wave. although the extent of the wnw motion would be more pronounced if it were stronger do to rotational effects of the circulation.

Aric,

I thought most of the models had it going over Hispanola? If it does goes north would that not make the track a bit north of what the models were showing when they had it going through the lower keys later in the run.

[ConvergenceZone]

I wouldn't be suprised if this develops more than people might think. I say that because many times systems have developed stronger that was originally anticipated, even though the conditions weren't ideal. This has happened numerous times.

I just get this feeling because because the US is so incredibly overdo for a major. Our luck has to run out soon. This could be the one.

[FireRat]

Looks like Irene in the making. Should be an interesting 7 to 10 days ahead of us.
I know Florida has dealt with Irene in the past, but this time it may be alot different.

Oh boy, Irene coming back to haunt us
gives me the shivers! Lived through that one in 1999.

I think August 27th and right around it could be the most important dates that this storm could use to make a nasty landfall if it did indeed become what the models have been showing. Just my honest opinion based on my "8-ball". The dates I'm worried about are August 22-28, with the 27th being the peak. That size is something that can't be ignored, let's see if the SAL keeps it in check or can't do much and allows it to grow.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Yeah its not moving due west..its moving a bit north of west...it may even pass just north of the islands or at least north of Hispaniola which would influence the intensity and wont weaken as much or at all.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html