WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[Infdidoll]

Latest ECMW track a little disconcerting for us...If that track pans out. Wonder what it is they are predicting will cause such a reversal in track? I'm going to have to go data-diving...I'm curious.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 10.3N 141.6E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 11.3N 137.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[StormingB81]

Latest ECMW track a little disconcerting for us...If that track pans out. Wonder what it is they are predicting will cause such a reversal in track? I'm going to have to go data-diving...I'm curious.

I see that...and look it the day if comes over us according to the model..FRIDAY...lol...I am just saying what everyone says about a weekend sotrm vs a weekday storm...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Latest ECMW track a little disconcerting for us...If that track pans out. Wonder what it is they are predicting will cause such a reversal in track? I'm going to have to go data-diving...I'm curious.

A track back to the west would be due to strengthening and extending of the sub tropical ridge. Defo one for Japan to keep an eye on down the road.

Amazing the cold wake left by Ma-on too, will take a good few days before that mixes and "sucks" up some heat!

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1002.3mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.9 2.9

[euro6208]

scary forecast from euro showing muifa strengthening to a powerful typhoon in the philippine sea and strengthening right up to landfall on okinawa! track has muifa passing very close to shanghai- a city of 23,019,148 people and making landfall in the province of shandong- a province of 95,793,065 people

[StormingB81]

scary forecast from euro showing muifa strengthening to a powerful typhoon in the philippine sea and strengthening right up to landfall on okinawa! track has muifa passing very close to shanghai- a city of 23,019,148 people and making landfall in the province of shandong- a province of 95,793,065 people

you have a link to this?

[euro6208]

[dexterlabio]

Another disastrous scenario from Euro once again. I personally think that the track and intensity forecast can be possible. I suppose this one would like to make a sweep from Japan to China.




Double post. lol.

[StormingB81]

Oh yea I saw that...who feels stupid now...lol.....sorry!

[StormingB81]

0z out for Euro..Shows pretty much the same thing..

[euro6208]

landfall now south of shanghai

looks like 11w will become large enough to leave behind an area of convection and that should develop as well according to euro.

[Infdidoll]

Latest ECMW track a little disconcerting for us...If that track pans out. Wonder what it is they are predicting will cause such a reversal in track? I'm going to have to go data-diving...I'm curious.

A track back to the west would be due to strengthening and extending of the sub tropical ridge. Defo one for Japan to keep an eye on down the road.

Amazing the cold wake left by Ma-on too, will take a good few days before that mixes and "sucks" up some heat!

Looks somewhat similar to some of the initial runs for Ma-On, but eventually they went with Ma-On recurving - kind of why I was curious. I didn't really give a look at the weather charts last go round. I think I see the ridge you're talking about and an area of high pressure that will be moving over southern Japan...which seems like they are predicting the storm recurving right into that high and then being pushed off to the West. Might spare Kyushu, but practically put a target on the Ryukyus over into China.

I've always been a reactive storm tracker...trying to learn more about the science of track prediction, now. When I finally get back to the States (and I really don't want to go back), I see more student loans in my future.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks somewhat similar to some of the initial runs for Ma-On, but eventually they went with Ma-On recurving - kind of why I was curious. I didn't really give a look at the weather charts last go round. I think I see the ridge you're talking about and an area of high pressure that will be moving over southern Japan...which seems like they are predicting the storm recurving right into that high and then being pushed off to the West. Might spare Kyushu, but practically put a target on the Ryukyus over into China.

I've always been a reactive storm tracker...trying to learn more about the science of track prediction, now. When I finally get back to the States (and I really don't want to go back), I see more student loans in my future.

I think this one is going to be tricky to forecast. Recurves are notoriously tricky to nail spot on and given this one could be going in a reverse S shape it may well prove a headache down the road for forecasters. It does seem though in the ECMWF 00z run it will attempt a convectional recurve and then the strengthening ridge of high pressure will push it back west.

[metenthusiast]

I'm completely ignorant to the dynamics of these weather systems, but I was just wondering whether Invest 95W would have an effect on 11W?

[Chacor]

The two systems are certainly close enough, but it's impossible to tell, unless you want to look at the models (which may not be right).

[KWT]

The models have only a slowly developing system at first, followed by a much more agressive rate of strengthening past 96hrs.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 11.3N 140.3E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 12.7N 137.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 11.1N 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.3N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.5N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.5N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.6N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.8N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.6N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.4N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 139.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
335 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
335 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271153Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN
UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM
25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 11W IS LOCATED
BENEATH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW TD
11W TO TURN POLEWARD. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THEN
INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE WHEN POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWARD, SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AROUND TAU 72, TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING STR. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS
BEGINNING AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-BUILDS. BOTH NOGAPS AND GFS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE TURN NORTHWESTWARD.//
NNNN
TPPN11 PGTW 271241
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NE OF PALAU)
B. 27/1132Z
C. 11.0N
D. 139.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LLCC HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST 6HRS. A CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .20 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AGREES, WHILE PT IS A 0.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

[KWT]

Slower rate of strengthening from the JWTC this time round, also just the start of the suggested bend back NNW/NW from the track there...

[HURAKAN]

Guam radar