ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Convection is beginning to build on the south and east of the circulation. Also, the Low has actually drifted more to the southeast for the duration of the afternoon. Observing Melbourne long range radar, the Low now appears positioned approximately 100-125 miles east of Saint Augustine. The Low is still drifting S-SE slowly at this time.

well its a bit farther south. straight east of New Symyrna Beach ... about 50 miles south of St augustine. but none the less yeah its still slowly dropping SSE

Oopss... I extrapolated incorectly. You are right Aric. Is it possible the Low level circulation has redeveloped in that farther south location?

Earlier today, the initial Low center was analyzed to be due east of Jacksonville. That is why I am wondering if the center has relocated as it drifted S-SE during the day?

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is beginning to build on the south and east of the circulation. Also, the Low has actually drifted more to the southeast for the duration of the afternoon. Observing Melbourne long range radar, the Low now appears positioned approximately 100-125 miles east of Saint Augustine. The Low is still drifting S-SE slowly at this time.

well its a bit farther south. straight east of New Symyrna Beach ... about 50 miles south of St augustine. but none the less yeah its still slowly dropping SSE

[img]http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/6758/dfxghdfghdgh.png[/im]

Oopss... I extrapolated incorectly. You are right Aric. Is it possible the Low level circulation has redeveloped in that farther south location?

Earlier today, the initial Low center was analyzed to be due east of Jacksonville. That is why I am wondering if the center has relocated as it drifted S-SE during the day?

well the 6 Z was north off JAX the 12z however was analyzed where you see it in that image. that is of course the surface low... the MLC has moved over the general area of Lower pressure at the surface.... not necessarily a surface circ....

[TheBurn]

[Blown Away]

I think 20% is generous, how many systems have developed in this area and moved S or SE over the Florida peninsula. Just some squally weather at best for Central Florida, IMO.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks Aric. I think tonight looks to be interesting to see if 98L is beginning the process of detaching itself from the frontal boundary. If this process is taking shape, the probabilities for 98L to organize will be enhanced significantly with time. The convective build-up on the south and east side of the circulation is the best I have seen with the system all day to this point. This is definitely an interesting feature to monitor this weekend to say the least.

[Aric Dunn]

I think 20% is generous, how many systems have developed in this area and moved S or SE over the Florida peninsula. Just some squally weather at best for Central Florida, IMO.

well the GFS basically keeps the system right where it is for 72hrs and then slowly moves it NNE afterwards. question really is, will it drop far enough south to be in a more favorable upper environment to allow it time to transition and work to the surface ?

[cycloneye]

No change on the % as it stays at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS EASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE ...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Aric Dunn]

Just looked at the buoys 41009 and 41010 and 41010 which is the 120nm buoy has switch to the sse and the 41009 which is the 20nm buoy has a nnw wind which places a weak surface circ east of cape Canaveral.

[Blown Away]

I think 20% is generous, how many systems have developed in this area and moved S or SE over the Florida peninsula. Just some squally weather at best for Central Florida, IMO.

well the GFS basically keeps the system right where it is for 72hrs and then slowly moves it NNE afterwards. question really is, will it drop far enough south to be in a more favorable upper environment to allow it time to transition and work to the surface ?

Well if it moves NE that's a different story, I was just saying very few low's develop into significant systems in this area and move SE over Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

No change on the % as it stays at 20%.



$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Just basically a cut and paste from the 2pm

[gatorcane]

In this VIS loop it is pretty clear there is cyclonic turning with possible LLC about 75 miles ENE of Cape Canaveral area. Looks to me like it is moving SSE. New thunderstorms are developing on the SE side of the LLC but you can still see the NW shear blowing them to the SE. The shear is not too strong though as the clouds tops are only slightly getting blown to the SE. The LLC is over the Gulf stream current and heading towards warmer water also.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-fl-vis-loop.html

[cheezyWXguy]

I think 20% is generous, how many systems have developed in this area and moved S or SE over the Florida peninsula. Just some squally weather at best for Central Florida, IMO.

well the GFS basically keeps the system right where it is for 72hrs and then slowly moves it NNE afterwards. question really is, will it drop far enough south to be in a more favorable upper environment to allow it time to transition and work to the surface ?

Well if it moves NE that's a different story, I was just saying very few low's develop into significant systems in this area and move SE over Florida.

I think you mean SW, because its already east of florida...

[gatorcane]

Possible LLC as shown by average RH and Winds graphic out of Melbourne.

You can see the wind barbs looping ENE of Cape Canaveral

[Aric Dunn]

yeah thats a little too far north .. but radar and surface obs are pointing towards one developing quite quickly..

[northjaxpro]

An excerpt from the 8 p.m. TWD from NHC pertaining to 98L. NHC has initialized the 1014mb LOW to be centered near 29.0 N 79.0 W.


MIDDLE TO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED
FROM 32N58W W-SW ALONG 29N65W TO A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
29N79W. A FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA FROM
CAPE CANAVERAL INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NEAR 28N83W.

[cycloneye]

Moving SSE.

[Flyinman]

I have never rooted for a tropical system to head our way but I am now. With the High finally moving Northward for a week or so, maybe we will have a shot at som decent rain if this moves Westward. Perhaps its proximity to land would hinder major development and just bring much needed downpours.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like Recon is still on. Anyone think this will change?

[hurricanefloyd5]

WILL THIS BECOME A WEAK TS AND IF SO WILL WILL TS WATCHES AND WARNINGS GO OUT FOR THE ECFL. COAST?

[cycloneye]

WILL THIS BECOME A WEAK TS AND IF SO WILL WILL TS WATCHES AND WARNINGS GO OUT FOR THE ECFL. COAST?

Please,dont post in caps. Is early to reach that conclusion,but in the tropics,never say never.