EPAC: DORA - Remnants

[Florida1118]

Depending on how big she gets, might brush the coast with rainbands though

[HURAKAN]

Depending on how big she gets, might brush the coast with rainbands though

True, but hopefully the core stays away from land

[Ivanhater]

First forecast up to 120 mph

[CrazyC83]

How strong will this get I wonder? Could this go all the way to Category 5?

[HURAKAN]

First forecast up to 120 mph

I had the same impression, but it shows how conducive the environment is for intensification

[cycloneye]

How strong will this get I wonder? Could this go all the way to Category 5?

It has all the ingredients to be a very strong cyclone.But it looks like it wont be trouble for Mexico,except for the very high swells it will provoke.

[CrazyC83]

If we start seeing EPAC monsters at a steady rate, that is a good sign of an El Nino as well...

[Ivanhater]

If we start seeing EPAC monsters at a steady rate, that is a good sign of an El Nino as well...

It is pretty clear El Nino will not happen anytime soon.....The EPAC had a Cat 5 last year in a very strong La Nina.

[HURAKAN]

If we start seeing EPAC monsters at a steady rate, that is a good sign of an El Nino as well...

It is pretty clear El Nino will not happen anytime soon.....The EPAC had a Cat 5 last year in a very strong La Nina.

I agree with Ivanhater here, for example, 1995 had 2 major hurricanes (cat 4) to start the season and at the end only produced 10 named systems

[CrazyC83]

If we start seeing EPAC monsters at a steady rate, that is a good sign of an El Nino as well...

It is pretty clear El Nino will not happen anytime soon.....The EPAC had a Cat 5 last year in a very strong La Nina.

That was a fading El Nino that turned to an abrupt La Nina though.

[Chacor]

Can someone with better (i.e., not on mobile as I am) access to the archives find out the last EPac seasons to start with 4 and 5 hurricanes?

[Ivanhater]

Yes. Take a look at the ENSO thread, all indications point to a neutral year. If anything, models are showing a dip back into La Nina by the end of the season. I don't want to get far off topic here though.

[Yellow Evan]

The rainfal accumulated yesterday was not very high, but most of it fell in just one hour that's why it felt so heavy. The station of UCA (a univeristy) just west of San Salvador measured for a few minutes a rain rate of 108 mm/h (4.32 inch/h). This map shows the rain that fell last night in the country (in mm). The highest accumulation was 61.5 mm (2.42 inches).

Can you post a link please? Thank you.

[Yellow Evan]

If we start seeing EPAC monsters at a steady rate, that is a good sign of an El Nino as well...

It is pretty clear El Nino will not happen anytime soon.....The EPAC had a Cat 5 last year in a very strong La Nina.

That was a fading El Nino that turned to an abrupt La Nina though.

The area of the cost of Mexico is warmer than average for this time of year, so in some respect it it a mini-El Nino for the area of the coast of Mexico and is thus a breeding ground for storms. However, if it was a true El Nino, the storms would be developing farther away from the Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

Wow,what a rapid organization trend this system is going thru,although some shear is to the northern part,that is forecast to abate. Dora later this afternoon or evening.

[Hurricanehink]

Can someone with better (i.e., not on mobile as I am) access to the archives find out the last EPac seasons to start with 4 and 5 hurricanes?

The last season in which the first four named storms became hurricanes was in 1971. The first two (Agatha and Bridget) struck Mexico, Carlotta was a fish hurricane, and Denise was a Category 4 before dissipating south of Hawaii.

The feat also happened in 1966, although that was before the start of reliable records in the EPAC, IIRC. In that season, the first six named storms became hurricanes, although in that time period, storms and hurricane had generic wind estimates of 45 and 75 kt, respectively.

[Yellow Evan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

1966 was the start of the satellite era though. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, it's only a TD. I do think that 5-E has a shot at Cat 5, but it is not likely at this time IMO. My forecast peak is 110 knts. After three days, I expect Dora to collapse like Calvin, Adrian, and Beatriz over the cold water south of Baja. I am forecasting a more southwesterly track than the NHC, but not as westerly as the GFDL/HWRF. Sorta like Hilary 05, which was a cat 2 and prompted TS warings to the coast.

[cycloneye]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

1966 was the start of the satellite era though. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, it's only a TD. I do think that 5-E has a shot at Cat 5, but it is not likely at this time IMO. My forecast peak is 110 knts. After three days, I expect Dora to collapse like Calvin, Adrian, and Beatriz over the cold water south of Baja. I am forecasting a more southwesterly track than the NHC, but not as westerly as the GFDL/HWRF. Sorta like Hilary 05, which was a cat 2 and prompted TS warings to the coast.

Here is Hilary,2005.

[Macrocane]

This map shows the rainfall accumlated yesterday, most of the rain fell again in the afternoon and overnight hours. The highest amount was 75.3 mm (2.96 inches) in the city of Santa Ana:



Here's the link: http://www.snet.gob.sv/ver/meteorologia/monitoreo/lluvia+registrada/

[plasticup]

How strong will this get I wonder? Could this go all the way to Category 5?

NHC says 2%, which is about as bullish as they ever are this far out. It's going to be an impressive one!