ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[WXGusserRet]

Is there a site to look at the latest 500-200MB charts? It would be nice to see what is going on above the system. - Ric

[GCANE]

Guidance has 48 hrs over water. So far, all agree a TS at land fall.

Rotation on VIS improving nicely.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/custom/index.htm?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=10&width=1000&height=800&info=vis&zoom=1&palette=ir.pal&quality=100&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=25&lon=-84

Seen it before, when a strong hot-tower fires near an ULL, the ULL pretty much gets blown out of the way.

Wait and see.

[GCANE]

Is there a site to look at the latest 500-200MB charts? It would be nice to see what is going on above the system. - Ric

Use SPC Mesoanalysis. Check the various drop downs. What you are looking for is under "Basic UA"


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

[ronjon]

WHXX01 KWBC 071224

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1224 UTC THU JUL 7 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962011) 20110707 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110707 1200 110708 0000 110708 1200 110709 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.9N 83.7W 26.0N 84.6W 27.1N 85.7W 28.2N 86.0W

BAMD 24.9N 83.7W 26.5N 84.3W 28.2N 84.8W 30.1N 85.0W

BAMM 24.9N 83.7W 26.2N 84.6W 27.3N 85.5W 28.7N 85.8W

LBAR 24.9N 83.7W 25.9N 84.2W 27.3N 84.8W 28.9N 84.8W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110709 1200 110710 1200 110711 1200 110712 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 29.3N 86.4W 31.1N 86.9W 32.4N 87.4W 32.4N 87.7W

BAMD 31.8N 84.5W 33.6N 84.1W 34.0N 84.3W 33.2N 85.0W

BAMM 29.8N 85.9W 31.9N 86.6W 33.2N 87.5W 33.3N 88.0W

LBAR 30.5N 84.1W 33.9N 81.5W 37.0N 79.9W 37.8N 74.8W

SHIP 44KTS 49KTS 51KTS 49KTS

DSHP 44KTS 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.9N LONCUR = 83.7W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 24.2N LONM12 = 83.3W DIRM12 = 324DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 23.7N LONM24 = 82.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

[tailgater]

If it stays weak the track will probably be more westward which could be worst news for BA fans.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

What do you big brained types think the chances of significant rain fall are for Palm Beach County or East coast of FL are?

Look outside? It's been solid drizzle with heavier periods since early this morning. Expect much of the same for the rest of the day and into tomorrow. Strong storms not likely as the overcast skies prevent significant heating.

[artist]

couldn't that upper low in the Gulf actually be enhancing it at this point?

[ronjon]

LLC clearly visible on SAT near 25N-85W - mostly exposed now with little movement. Dry air and shear will keep it in check but it should slowly organize as convection is nearby, warm SSTs, and it has a good 48 hrs or so over water. The ULL now appears to be moving west.

SAT

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

Partial closed low WNW of Key West at NRL ASCAT.

[KWT]

Obviously a circulation there, even if it is weak looking at that loop.

Does sorta look like one of those STS systems you get every now and then.

[tolakram]

Another loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

Any LLC is darn hard to find and weak, but perhaps it's getting better defined, really hard to tell.

[StormTracker]

Googled plot!

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2011&storm=96&latestinvest=1

[wxman57]

What do you think about the Pensacola bay area wxman? We have that huge blue angel air show on Pensacola beach saturday. So far the pops are only about 30 percent, so most of the weather should be east of us?

I'd say there's a good chance the Blue Angels will be dodging thunderstorms this weekend. Rain chances will be raised to 50-60% as the local NWS office catches on to the disturbance moving into the panhandle. Send it over here if you don't want it, we could use the rain.

[TheBurn]

[Ivanhater]

What do you think about the Pensacola bay area wxman? We have that huge blue angel air show on Pensacola beach saturday. So far the pops are only about 30 percent, so most of the weather should be east of us?

I'd say there's a good chance the Blue Angels will be dodging thunderstorms this weekend. Rain chances will be raised to 50-60% as the local NWS office catches on to the disturbance moving into the panhandle. Send it over here if you don't want it, we could use the rain.

Bad news...but we do need the rain...timing is bad though. Thanks for the update.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

96L has now the SSD floater.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF has a 45kt tropical or subtropical storm making landfall in NE Fla Panhandle.

[fci]

Sure would be nice if it would give us more than a drizzle. Local NWS office pegged this a couple of days ago that this area would yield a weak low in the eastern GOM and South Florida would be on the wet side of the system with anywhere from 2-4 inches of rain.
Perfect for drought busting!
So where is our heavy rain then???