EPAC: ADRIAN - Tropical Depression

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

00z

EP, 91, 2011060700, , BEST, 0, 114N, 991W, 25, 1007, DB

no change

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 070025
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0025 UTC TUE JUN 7 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912011) 20110607 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110607  0000   110607  1200   110608  0000   110608  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.4N  99.1W   12.0N  99.9W   12.4N 100.8W   12.8N 101.9W
BAMD    11.4N  99.1W   12.1N 100.0W   12.9N 101.0W   13.3N 102.0W
BAMM    11.4N  99.1W   11.9N 100.0W   12.5N 101.0W   12.9N 102.2W
LBAR    11.4N  99.1W   12.1N  99.6W   13.4N 100.2W   15.0N 100.6W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          44KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110609  0000   110610  0000   110611  0000   110612  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N 102.9W   13.5N 104.7W   14.1N 106.3W   14.7N 107.8W
BAMD    13.7N 103.3W   13.8N 105.9W   13.2N 108.0W   12.6N 109.1W
BAMM    13.2N 103.4W   13.7N 105.6W   13.6N 107.6W   13.3N 108.9W
LBAR    17.2N 100.7W   20.8N  99.4W   21.3N  97.4W   22.3N  96.1W
SHIP        54KTS          63KTS          68KTS          67KTS
DSHP        54KTS          63KTS          68KTS          67KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.4N LONCUR =  99.1W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  10.8N LONM12 =  98.7W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  10.6N LONM24 =  98.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[Cyclenall]

Early on, I think the NHC might be changing up on they apply the percentages. I don't think that this would have gotten 90% how it was yesterday and certainly not gotten a 100% unless it was basically already a TC. Remember that its near 100% that it will form in the next 48 hours which is probably right.

They are certainly doing it differently this year because for them to issue 100% the system needed to be confirmed as an actual TD/TS and advisories would start whenever the next cycle was. This is a turn-around and I don't like it.

[srainhoutx]

Early on, I think the NHC might be changing up on they apply the percentages. I don't think that this would have gotten 90% how it was yesterday and certainly not gotten a 100% unless it was basically already a TC. Remember that its near 100% that it will form in the next 48 hours which is probably right.

They are certainly doing it differently this year because for them to issue 100% the system needed to be confirmed as an actual TD/TS and advisories would start whenever the next cycle was. This is a turn-around and I don't like it.

This is also the EPAC. The NHC tends to be a bit more cautious in the region for a number of reasons, IMO.

[KWT]

System still struggling to make the jump, the circulation is great and if it was in the gulf I sdare say it'd probably be a TD already but its still looking good for an upgrade despite weak convection.

[Chacor]

Never seen NHC hold a disturbance at 90/100% for so long without upgrading.

[Extratropical94]

And another six hours of waiting.

5AM/8AM (1200Z) TWO: still at 100%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 7 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS
GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN


Edit: Note that they kept it at 90/100% for 36 hours now. According to the first TWO in this timespan, 91E had a 90% chance of development in the following 48 hours.
Do a bit of mathematics and you'll see that One-E would have to form in the next twelve hours. Otherwise I think that this would mark the first time that a 90/100 system did not form in the 48 hours after declaration (don't know about Gaston's exact development chances after it fell apart)

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep912011_ep012011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106071401
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

we got a depression!

[HURAKAN]

1st look at the new depression, advisories at 8 am PT

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011

THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS NOW DEVELOPED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF
THE 2011 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.0 AND 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.
BASED ON THESE DATA AND AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LESS THAN
10 KT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 C SHOULD ALLOW THE
DEPRESSION TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...WHICH
IS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE
DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO A
HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. BETWEEN 36 AND 96 HOURS...A GRADUAL BEND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. BY DAY 5...THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN DUE TO
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS...WHICH MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
APPEAR UNREALISTIC AND ARE CONSIDERED OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 11.6N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 11.9N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 12.5N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 13.2N 101.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 14.0N 101.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 15.1N 103.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 16.5N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

Track forecast

[CrazyC83]

Any chance this could turn back towards land?

[HURAKAN]

Any chance this could turn back towards land?

The consensus says that it will remain away from land but GFDL and HWRF point towards Mexico, lets see.

[HURAKAN]

EP, 01, 2011060718, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1001W, 25, 1006, TD

no change

[HURAKAN]

07/1745 UTC 11.2N 100.2W T2.0/2.0 01E -- East Pacific

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

EP, 01, 2011060718, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1001W, 30, 1005, TD

winds revised to 30 knots

[KWT]

I'd expect the only real chance of this hitting Mexico would be for it to really bomb over the next 24-48hrs.

[HURAKAN]

great circulation but it seems that maybe some dry air is not allowing the convection to wrap around the entire center

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 072043
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN ORGANIZED PATTERN OF
DEEP CONVECTION...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND COVERING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW
2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ARE THE BASIS FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 295/3. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND THAT TIME...A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH DAY 5. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
NORTHWARD TRACK BIASES AND THUS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN WEIGHTED LESS
HEAVILY THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 4 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 11.7N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 12.2N 100.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 12.8N 100.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 13.6N 101.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 14.5N 102.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 15.2N 104.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 16.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI



Uploaded by imageshack.us