ATL: IRENE - Models

[sweetpea]

WOW, I have been a lurker for years. But this last model run, well lets say is very scary. Where the heck do you go to get away from it?

Want to say thanks to everyone for all their hard work and patience. I have learned alot from this board over the years.

Stay safe

[chris_fit]

Lets see if the Euro shifts a little left next... If it does, IMO, Florida would not be out of the woods just yettttt.

[CrazyC83]

WOW, I have been a lurker for years. But this last model run, well lets say is very scary. Where the heck do you go to get away from it?

Want to say thanks to everyone for all their hard work and patience. I have learned alot from this board over the years.

Stay safe

Fly west?

[sweetpea]

Oh Shi*????

That would be me sitting in my house as 120+ mph winds decided to pay a visit with that model run.

Holy crap!!!!

Me too, not sure exactly where in NE Florida you are, but stay safe.

[CronkPSU]

texas seems safe in 2011

[maxintensity]

The only problem with the west models is they require a significant error by the Euro inside of 96 hours. Euro inside of 96 is really tough and it would be a shock for it to bust as much as would be needed for S Fl to get hit. 0z run will end it all and we'll know.

[Vortex]

With the ingested data the 00z runs will be very important as critical decisions may be warranted by the NHC late Tuesday.....

[JPmia]

What model is up next? I'm slayin' em today!

Chris try the FIM model. NHC did mention it as experimental a few days ago and look how close it gets to east coast FL. Though, it is kind of confusing to look at since there is a blue line that appears to be east of a center of circulation? Anyone explain this model's graphics for us?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ ... 82212.html

[gatorcane]

Did I see that right? The HWRF and GFDL are through South Florida now?

Is it the data they have given the models? Geez this is going to change things I am afraid.

[bucman1]

Based on GFDL it deems to me it goes nnw trough the middle of the peninsula.would have implications if verified for both east and rest coasts of Florida.

[clfenwi]

18Z GFDL Stats. Final point is in vicinity of Lake City, FL. If that sounds familiar, it's because the final point is nearly to that of the 12Z run. Forecast location for 18Z Saturday is 17 miles northwest of that given by the 12Z run.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -68.15 LAT: 19.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.40
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -68.95 LAT: 19.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.59
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -69.63 LAT: 19.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.97
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -70.65 LAT: 19.83 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.53 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.82
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -71.63 LAT: 20.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.76 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.32
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -72.47 LAT: 20.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.45 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.81
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -73.54 LAT: 20.86 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.24 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.90
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.55 LAT: 21.47 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.17 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.95
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -75.65 LAT: 21.92 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.49
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.47 LAT: 22.43 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.17 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.16
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.34 LAT: 23.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 952.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):102.66
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -78.08 LAT: 23.71 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.32
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -78.68 LAT: 24.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):115.18
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -79.17 LAT: 25.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.89 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):131.84
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.80 LAT: 25.86 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):129.88
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -80.30 LAT: 26.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.09 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.13
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -80.78 LAT: 27.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.66 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.49
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -81.21 LAT: 27.75 MIN PRESS (hPa): 953.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.13
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -81.72 LAT: 28.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.98
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -82.05 LAT: 28.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.64
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -82.33 LAT: 29.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.12
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -82.64 LAT: 30.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 78.04


Edited to enter give correct model; mistakenly pasted HWRF run here.

[Tireman4]

texas seems safe in 2011

The season is WAY too young my friend. Trends are starting change....Lookout for September and October....

[BensonTCwatcher]

euro runs in an hour or so?

I dunno but I really want to see the next euro run. The last one looked flubbed up. amazing how we are calm about 120 plus runs when we 240 hours out, but not so much when we are 96? Models don't know or care. Getting dicey though nonetheless.

[chris_fit]

euro runs in an hour or so?

Can't find this... can you provide a link?

[ronjon]

Wow HWRF at 918 mb and GFDL at 924 mb - forecasts of a major hurricane - perhaps CAT 4. If it hit FL, might as well write the state off the next decade.

[Stephanie]

Yes, thank you Chris and everyone else for their input and graphics.

That is freakin' scary! I just wonder about Irene looking like she's intensifying over land. I just pray that those graphics are wrong, but I'm afraid what she will do if projected to be over the water instead.

[CrazyC83]

Wow HWRF at 918 mb and GFDL at 924 mb - forecasts of a major hurricane - perhaps CAT 4. If it hit FL, might as well write the state off the next decade.

Those intensities are strong Cat 4 most likely, around 130 kt.

[jdray]

Wow HWRF at 918 mb and GFDL at 924 mb - forecasts of a major hurricane - perhaps CAT 4. If it hit FL, might as well write the state off the next decade.

At least unemployment would go down with all the new construction......

[ronjon]

Wow HWRF at 918 mb and GFDL at 924 mb - forecasts of a major hurricane - perhaps CAT 4. If it hit FL, might as well write the state off the next decade.

At least unemployment would go down with all the new construction......

yeah but would any of us get home insurance again?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Wow HWRF at 918 mb and GFDL at 924 mb - forecasts of a major hurricane - perhaps CAT 4. If it hit FL, might as well write the state off the next decade.

Those intensities are strong Cat 4 most likely, around 130 kt.

If those intensities panned out, which I highly doubt, those would be high end category 4 or category 5.