ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

KWT · #381 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 1:41 pm

Very interesting runs, I'd be amazed if that comes off however given its current presentation!

Still shows what may pccur down the line if conditions are better in the S.Gulf as expected.

perk · #382 Postby **perk** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 1:47 pm

Sanibel wrote:Looks like a d-max re-fire of convection.

I meant the models appear to be trending more towards Texas than yesterday.

Thanks that clears it up for me.

stormreader · #383 Postby **stormreader** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:02 pm

BigA wrote:Seems to me that this has a better shot if it stays south of the Greater Antilles, given that UL conditions are more likely to be favorable in the W.Carib than the Bahamas in 48-72 hours.

The 12Z GFDL and HWRF runs, and the FOX WRF run http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... shear.html seem to bear this out. It has to stay south of Hispaniola and Cuba to have a chance.

I think it will stay south of Haiti and Cuba. Just looking at latest loops from NHC, looks like llc is becoming more apparent at the southern end of that expanding mass of convection. Perhaps just my imagination. Maybe a closer look would tell.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

#384 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:05 pm

90L should keep moving should keep moving WNW at a fairly brisk pace thru at least the next 72hrs. After that it should begin to slow down as it reaches the NW Caribbean or SE GOM by Tuesday Evening.

Steering forecast thru 48hrs

Thru 72hrs

Just looked at the 12zGFDL and HWRF and they have a full blown hurricane by 84hrs. Its likely to bullish with the intensity but it looks like both models are trying to hint of what 90l could become.

stormreader · #385 Postby **stormreader** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:14 pm

But you know RGV, I'm not too surprised at that bullish model forecast for hurricane in 84 hours. LLC which we saw hints of yesterday is I think becoming quite a bit more pronounced at the southerly end of that convection in the Carribean. And I think the convection is beginning to get over the top of what looks like a burgeoning LLC too. I think the yellow marker may need to be upgraded pretty soon.

#386 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:22 pm

How do you like this for a consensus! :double:

#387 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:30 pm

I think that development chances next 48 hours are minimal, perhaps 5%. But wait until it reaches the NW Caribbean in 3 days when convergence increases. That's when development chances go up considerably (Monday night/Tue). Recon may well be needed by Monday afternoon.

tropicwatch · #388 Postby **tropicwatch** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:30 pm

Wow, real close agreement on the model tracks. I don't recall them being like that for a system that hasn't developed yet.

Tropicwatch

TwisterFanatic · #389 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:30 pm

Nice development of some fairly deep convection over and South East of PR the past few frames, still has a long way to go though.

TwisterFanatic · #390 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:32 pm

Still skeptical of the model tracks due to the Tropical waves overall presentation right now.

#391 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:45 pm

I agree with wxman57, this won't be doing anything until it reaches the western Carib. or southern GOM and even then it could be moving along too fast to develop before landfalls.

ConvergenceZone · #392 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:47 pm

MGC wrote:Looks like the shear monster is starting to roar over 90L, that and land will kill any development chance the next couple of days. Maybe when the wave enters the GOM....MGC

I agree MGC, this thing is dead until it hits the GOM, then MAYBE it has a chance.

chrisnnavarre · #393 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:52 pm

Even with the shear, it sure looks like it's coming together around 16N 64W...just saying...if it stays south of the islands this could be our first major player into the Western Caribbean this season.

HouTXmetro · #394 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:54 pm

Wow, talk about agreement, I'd be very concerned if I were anywhere near the texas mexico border region....off you extrapolate the models looks to head towards the area just south of brownsville...but of course things can change.

perk · #395 Postby **perk** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 3:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think that development chances next 48 hours are minimal, perhaps 5%. But wait until it reaches the NW Caribbean in 3 days when convergence increases. That's when development chances go up considerably (Monday night/Tue). Recon may well be needed by Monday afternoon.

wxman57 any thoughts you can share on 90L's future track.

stormreader · #396 Postby **stormreader** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 3:09 pm

chrisnnavarre wrote:Even with the shear, it sure looks like it's coming together around 16N 64W...just saying...if it stays south of the islands this could be our first major player into the Western Caribbean this season.

I agree Chris. By my eye its around 16N66W. At any rate it does look like its making considerable progress today both in developing a circulation and in getting the convection over the top of that circulation. True, it may not develop until it reaches the W Carib, ( my earlier thoughts today said central Cuba area)but it looks like its definitely laying the groundwork today for tropical development.

ROCK · #397 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 3:09 pm

chrisnnavarre wrote:Even with the shear, it sure looks like it's coming together around 16N 64W...just saying...if it stays south of the islands this could be our first major player into the Western Caribbean this season.

Not even close...

look below the convection as its being sheared out to the NE....low level to mid level vorticty...around 15N 65W...speed it up....

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

chrisnnavarre · #398 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 3:20 pm

ROCK wrote:
chrisnnavarre wrote:Even with the shear, it sure looks like it's coming together around 16N 64W...just saying...if it stays south of the islands this could be our first major player into the Western Caribbean this season.

Not even close... look below the convection as its being sheared out to the NE....low level to mid level vorticty...around 15N 65W...speed it up....

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

Yep, I see the shear too. Still looks like a circulation down there, and convection is increasing. Anyone know what the nearest pressure readings are now? Is there a weather station near by, or a buoy perhaps?

#399 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 3:24 pm

Wxman looks spot on. Convection is not a problem, the issue is the strong easterly flow over the eastern Caribbean right now not allowing a surface circulation to form. Once this slows in the Western Caribbean, the convection will be allowed to pop a surface low.

#400 Postby **Tireman4** » Sat Jul 23, 2011 3:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think that development chances next 48 hours are minimal, perhaps 5%. But wait until it reaches the NW Caribbean in 3 days when convergence increases. That's when development chances go up considerably (Monday night/Tue). Recon may well be needed by Monday afternoon.

As usual, clear and concise. Thanks Wxman....

ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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