ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[lebron23]

The faster it develops the better chance it moves north, correct?

[KWT]

My gut would be for a track that carries on to the WNW till about 65W where it would start to lift more to the north...

If its anything close to the ECM/GFS upper atmosphere predicition then from that position its got very little chance of not recurving...

It'll probably have to stick close to 15N till 70W if its going to miss the trough...unless it stays weak of course...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Reaches 10N.

AL, 91, 2011073000, , BEST, 0, 100N, 431W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[KWT]

The faster it develops the better chance it moves north, correct?

In this set-up, yes pretty much. If it stays weak it'll probably end up a Mexico/Gulf threat...looking unlikely though right now.

Also looks like they are slowly moving the estimated center towards the dominant center at 44W.

[bamajammer4eva]

bamajammer4eva, great graphic!

Worrying to see a couple of beasts in there, both Flora and David were horrific storms. Flora was one of the most worst in terms of deaths for the last 50 years.

Didnt know that about Flora. Yeah she recurved from the US but not the islands.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 300035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC SAT JUL 30 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110730 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110730  0000   110730  1200   110731  0000   110731  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.0N  43.1W   11.1N  45.7W   12.3N  48.4W   13.3N  51.0W
BAMD    10.0N  43.1W   11.0N  45.4W   12.1N  47.8W   13.1N  50.2W
BAMM    10.0N  43.1W   11.0N  45.2W   12.0N  47.4W   12.9N  49.8W
LBAR    10.0N  43.1W   11.2N  45.5W   12.5N  48.1W   13.6N  50.7W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          38KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          38KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110801  0000   110802  0000   110803  0000   110804  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  53.6W   15.2N  58.7W   16.8N  64.0W   18.5N  68.7W
BAMD    13.8N  52.5W   15.1N  56.6W   17.0N  60.4W   20.2N  64.5W
BAMM    13.7N  52.0W   14.8N  56.5W   16.7N  61.3W   19.6N  66.0W
LBAR    14.7N  53.2W   16.3N  57.4W   18.5N  61.0W   23.0N  63.4W
SHIP        56KTS          68KTS          75KTS          74KTS
DSHP        56KTS          68KTS          75KTS          74KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.0N LONCUR =  43.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =   9.2N LONM12 =  40.6W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =   8.4N LONM24 =  38.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

Moving WNW at 290 degrees.

Code: Select all

LATCUR =  10.0N LONCUR =  43.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  12KT


[xironman]

The faster it develops the better chance it moves north, correct?

Depends on the winds at the given level. But yeah generally at a higher level the wind are more poleward, but that is not set in stone. This deep in the tropics you can look at the BAMD to get an idea.

[KWT]

Moving WNW at 290 degrees.

Code: Select all

LATCUR =  10.0N LONCUR =  43.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  12KT


Hard to say if thats the true motion or whether thats just where the system is trying to exit the ITCZ.

If that is true motion, its generally in line with the recurve models.

[ronjon]

Latest model tracks - No definite recurve at this time frame. The 12z ECM takes 91L through the caribbean (albeit a weak system). Notice the right-hand bias of the HWRF.

[BigA]

Hard to tell at night, but this still looks rather linear to me. The western low is slowly dominating, but I wouldn't be surprised if it took another two days to pull together to depression-level organization. But all signs look good for this to continue to gain organiation.

[KWT]

ronjon, one thing that is starting to gain abit more confidence is the threat to the NE Caribbean.

HWRF is to the right of all the models, but no shock there.

[ronjon]

8-10 day ensemble mean 500 mb pattern for GFS and ECM shows troughing over SE Canada but it doesn't look amplified. We'll have to watch the trends in the upper air pattern over the next few days to get a better handle on the later steering og 91L. So many variables at this point. The time it takes to develop these systems - models tend to develop them too early. The future strength of troughing off the east coast. I agree, KWT, that it is looking very ominous for the Leewards, VI, PR, and possibly Hispanola.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[KWT]

Its the sort of pattern that a weak system would have a reasonable shot at not being picked up...the problem is by that time 91L will probably be knocking on the door of a major hurricane.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I notice the TVCN isn't showing that obvious looking recurve now. That's why it's never good to go with a forecast this far out that shows it'll recurve. Once the cyclone develops then we'll get a better understanding of where the model guidance lays.

[caribepr]

Out in California visiting with my son, but keeping a close eye on 91...thanks again for being here, S2K!

[cycloneye]

Here is a good loop.

[beoumont]

Here is a good loop.

Adding to that: "Look at the size of that sunny beach!"

[Weatherfreak000]

One thing I am noticing is 91L has yet to detach itself from the ITCZ which should probably keep it from developing in the short term. The longer 91L takes to get it's act together the farther west it may get

[lebron23]

Most of the models have a bend back west toward the end of the run.