ATL: IRENE - Models

[chris_fit]

GFDL @ 54 Hours.....




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[BigA]

I can understand the models thinking this first trough is going to turn it. but its already lifting out and unless it starts now it wont and honestly like the 00z and 06z hwrf where it turns it NW to almost NNW by the time its straight north of hispaniola is just not right. the 12z nam seems to have the trough that is now lifting out actually lifting out and keep Irene on a more Wnw track. just think the models are turning too much with the first trough and not realizes the ridging will build back in after it lifts out briefly

Perhaps this is heresy, but the NAM might be useful in this case if it is modeling a mid-latitude feature that will affect Irene's track.

[Evil Jeremy]

60 hours: Motion WNW, skimming Cuban coastline:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL060.gif

[chris_fit]

GFDL @ 66 hrs...




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[Bocadude85]

12z GFDL forecast position for 12Z Saturday is about 40 miles east of the 06Z forecast. Final forecast point is roughly Lake City, FL.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -67.00 LAT: 18.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.19
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -68.23 LAT: 19.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.87
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -68.99 LAT: 19.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.18
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -69.78 LAT: 19.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.66 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.15
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -70.64 LAT: 19.83 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.93
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -71.74 LAT: 20.23 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.66 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.05
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -72.90 LAT: 20.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.83
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.00 LAT: 20.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.21 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 78.93
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -74.94 LAT: 20.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.40
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -75.79 LAT: 21.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.90
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.73 LAT: 21.92 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.45 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.11
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.66 LAT: 22.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.02 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.93
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -78.39 LAT: 23.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.41 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.52
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -79.09 LAT: 23.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):115.74
[b]HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.50 LAT: 24.53 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):126.96
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -80.07 LAT: 25.36 MIN PRESS (hPa): 921.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):132.55
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -80.71 LAT: 26.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.82
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -81.21 LAT: 26.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.71 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.79
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -81.50 LAT: 27.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.90
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -81.96 LAT: 28.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.57
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -82.28 LAT: 29.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.56
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -82.39 LAT: 30.03 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.04

[/b]

so the gfdl is still calling for a south florida landfall...

[chris_fit]

GFDL @ 72 hrs...



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[chris_fit]

@78 hrs...

SFL all over it...




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[gatorcane]

yeah...landfall South FL, pretty deep system I must say

That is why it is important for Florida to pay attention. We are in the CONE and the GFDL could be right.

[Steve H.]

You can see on the GFDL 98L run Irene just barely touching the east coast of Florida then turning NNE.

[Scorpion]

Wow.. good thing GFDL is a big outlier. That scenario would be absolutely devastating.

[Evil Jeremy]

90 hours: Intense hurricane into SE FL:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL090.gif

[Aric Dunn]

I can understand the models thinking this first trough is going to turn it. but its already lifting out and unless it starts now it wont and honestly like the 00z and 06z hwrf where it turns it NW to almost NNW by the time its straight north of hispaniola is just not right. the 12z nam seems to have the trough that is now lifting out actually lifting out and keep Irene on a more Wnw track. just think the models are turning too much with the first trough and not realizes the ridging will build back in after it lifts out briefly

Aric are you thinking a shift back toward the west in later models runs in respect to what you are saying?

Not for sure. but it looks like that will happen a little considering the abrupt right turn the models are trying to do late tomorrow when there is nothing there to turn it. the trough will have lifted out by then and ridging building back.. almost all models show the ridging but for some reason they plow right through it.. lol

[chris_fit]

@ 90hrs... pretty much an ANDREW



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[gatorcane]

921MB CANE into South Florida.

All I have to say is

Seems like people are already writing this storm off here in South Florida saying things like "it is going to miss to the east like they all do"

[Aric Dunn]

Wow.. good thing GFDL is a big outlier. That scenario would be absolutely devastating.

lol it was just a few days ago when everyone was all on board saying the "outlier" gfdl which was western carrib was more likely than going up the east coast of florida.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL shifted east, but still showing SFL. Still going to wait until the Gulfstream data is in the models though before making any big decisions. A lot of uncertanity still.

[chris_fit]

102hrs... Ugly Ugly....



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[Aric Dunn]

921MB CANE into South Florida.

All I have to say is

that is the worst possible angle for there too the storm surge would be great !! vs going through the bahamas like andrew even though andrew had a pretty good surge.

[gatorcane]

GFDL shifted east, but still showing SFL. Still going to wait until the Gulfstream data is in the models though before making any big decisions. A lot of uncertanity still.

Only a slight shift east though, not much really. GFDL is very consistent on a South Florida hit...

But ECMWF/GFS are insistent on it passing about 80-100 miles east....

The battle is on between this generally reliable hurricane model and the two big dynamic global models

[Aric Dunn]

GFDL shifted east, but still showing SFL. Still going to wait until the Gulfstream data is in the models though before making any big decisions. A lot of uncertanity still.

when does the gulfstream go ?