SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

eyewall approaching the coast

[Graham1973]

Any news from Willis island?

From the looks of things this could be the worst hurricane to make landfall in Queensland since Cyclone Mahina(Wikipedia) back in 1899.

[Crostorm]

Townsville wave height is 12.7 meters

http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/environmenta ... /index.php

[Chacor]

Townsville wave buoy readings are no longer considered accurate or reliable, according to the Queensland state premier. That 18 m reading is definitely wrong, according to her. So I would take that reading with a pinch of salt.

[Crostorm]

Cyclone Yasi Cairns CBD

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/cyclone-yasi-cairns-cbd

[ManilaTC]

Southwest jog at the moment, Landfall between Tully and Cardwell

[Chacor]

Lucinda, which is in the SW quadrant (the strongest part) of the storm, reported 60 knot sustained winds with gusts to 100 knots and a pressure of 980 hPa at 11:31 pm local time (20 minutes ago).

Winds in Townsville are now at 43 kt gusting to 62 kt.

[Chacor]

ABC News (Australia) is reporting that the BOM has announced that landfall is currently occurring.

[Chacor]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area from Cape Flattery to Proserpine and inland
to the Northern Territory border are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:54pm EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Flattery to Proserpine, extending west across the tropical interior to the
Northern Territory border.

At 12:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be 120
kilometres south southeast of Cairns and 50 kilometres southeast of Innisfail
and moving west southwest at 27 kilometres per hour.

THE LARGE DESTRUCTIVE CORE OF CYCLONE YASI IS STARTING TO CROSS THE COAST
BETWEEN INNISFAIL AND CARDWELL, WITH A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE AND BATTERING WAVES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move inland in a
west-southwesterly direction towards the Georgetown area during the morning.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e.
storm tide] will occur between Innisfail and Ayr, peaking between Mission Beach
and Lucinda.

Higher than normal tides exceeding the high water mark, and damaging waves will
continue between Cairns and Proserpine until at least the morning high tide.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290 km/h between Cairns and Ingham and
the adjacent ranges will extend inland and gradually weaken.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of the cyclone will take up to 4 hours to pass.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h between Cape Tribulation and
Ayr will spread inland overnight.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are occurring in remaining coastal areas
between Cape Flattery and Proserpine, and are forecast to extend through to Mt
Isa during Thursday.

Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during Thursday
morning.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Proserpine tonight and gradually
extend inland.

People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter, above the expected water level, while the very destructive
winds continue.
- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone; very
destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
- Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police, Emergency Services
personnel and local authorities.

People in remaining areas between Cape Flattery and Proserpine and extending
west across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, should
complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 12:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.9 degrees South 146.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 27 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am EST Thursday 03 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[HURAKAN]

Lucinda reporting 60 kt sustained, 100 kt in gusts.

[TheStormChaser]

Landfall in the Mission Beach area at Dunk Island about 5mins ago.

[Chacor]

JTWC 1200 UTC warning upped the intensity to 135 kt, just shy of Cat 5 on the SSHS.

WTPS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.6S 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.9S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.1S 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 146.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A 30 NM EYE AND THE CAIRNS RADAR DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. TC 11P HAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWED IN TRANSLATION SPEED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF CAIRNS WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 42
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.//

[HURAKAN]

eyewall crossing the coast near Bingil Bay, "center" still over the ocean

[Bad_Hurricane]

Yasi is so large it would almost cover the United States, most of Asia and large parts of Europe.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/fl ... z1CoLy3OKT






source:http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/floodrelief/how-cyclone-yasi-compares-around-the-world/story-fn7ik2te-1225998762870

[HURAKAN]

landfall occurring

[KWT]

Yasi looks close to category-5 now to me, its by far and away the best its looked overall and has managed to HOLD this for a while now which is key IMO.

135kts looks pretty good call to me, very severe cyclone that is going to cause lasting and severe damage.

Landfall starting to occur now...

[Chacor]

12-12:05 am obs:
Lucinda 977 hPa, 58 kt gusting 89 kt
Cairns 983 hPa, 17 kt gusting 22 kt
Townsville 994 hPa, 47 kt gusting 56 kt

[HURAKAN]

landfall

[Chacor]

Radar loop from Townsville: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR212.loop.shtml#skip

Latest static image:

[StormingB81]

Is this bigger then Tip????