ATL: IRENE - Models

#3301 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:26 am

Nam 12Z H+48 near central cuba and more importantly the synoptics look very reasonable

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

Miami Storm Tracker · #3302 Postby **Miami Storm Tracker** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:28 am

I don't see how that could happen with all the models showing the weekness strong enough to pull it north east of south fla. Unless the high builds in even for the short term then I guess it would be possible.

#3303 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:29 am

How is the nam running compared to previous run?

#3304 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:30 am

H+54 just SE of Andros...synoptics favor a SFL hit

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

#3305 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:32 am

H+60 just Sout of Andros slowly moving w/wnw

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

#3306 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:33 am

Looking at the NAM for 500mb heights... It looks like troughing in 60 hours is not as prevalent as it is now. It's much flatter.

#3307 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:33 am

Vortex wrote:H+60 just Sout of Andros slowly moving w/wnw

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

ut oh......

#3308 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:33 am

That system would definitely have affects on South Florida... No question about it.

leaf blower · #3309 Postby **leaf blower** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:35 am

Is the NAM one of the more "respected" models?

Riptide · #3310 Postby **Riptide** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:35 am

The operational NAM is horrible with tropical cyclones, you are only -removed- if you are using it as evidence of possible impacts.

Bocadude85 · #3311 Postby **Bocadude85** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:36 am

gatorcane wrote:
Vortex wrote:H+60 just Sout of Andros slowly moving w/wnw

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

ut oh......

lol it is the NAM... though I will say when the NAM did this last night the 0Z models shifted west a little..

#3312 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:36 am

H+66 appears to be heading for SFL....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

#3313 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:37 am

lol, "-removed-"....

NAM is a synoptics model. Those synoptics favor a track near the Florida peninsula.

#3314 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:37 am

Riptide wrote:The operational NAM is horrible with tropical cyclones, you are only -removed- if you are using it as evidence of possible impacts.

But it does a very good job with overall synoptics.....

#3315 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:38 am

Riptide wrote:The operational NAM is horrible with tropical cyclones, you are only -removed- if you are using it as evidence of possible impacts.

No one is -removed-. The NAM is good for spotting trends, and more importantly, the synoptics to steer storms.

#3316 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:38 am

Riptide wrote:The operational NAM is horrible with tropical cyclones, you are only -removed- if you are using it as evidence of possible impacts.

Looking and saying what the NAM is showing is hardly "-removed-".

#3317 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:41 am

Troughing is more pronounced at 00 hour.

00 Hour

72 Hours

#3318 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:42 am

H+72 Strengthening and SE of Miami heading wnw/nw

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

#3319 Postby **Jevo** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:42 am

Oh no the dreaded W word..

Although when it comes to the NAM I tend to forget that there is even a tropical cyclone evident and look at the much larger features such as troughs and ridging... ie synoptics

and just when I start to think Im smart and know what Im talking about I remember that my Den doesnt look like this....

It is going to be a tense couple of day to say the least

Riptide · #3320 Postby **Riptide** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:43 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Riptide wrote:The operational NAM is horrible with tropical cyclones, you are only -removed- if you are using it as evidence of possible impacts.

No one is -removed-. The NAM is good for spotting trends, and more importantly, the synoptics to steer storms.

I guess you make good points but hopefully the changes would show up on the global models and then they would correctly project the track.

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