ATL: IRENE - Models

[Vortex]

bottom line Irene will have more water to work with which in turn likely means a much stronger storm...At the end of the day weather a direct hit into FL or not she will be within striking distance....Plan accordingly..

[tolakram]

Image save

ECMWF 144H



You model thread folks frustrate me.

[SFLcane]

bottom line Irene will have more water to work with which in turn likely means a much stronger storm...At the end of the day weather a direct hit into FL or not she will be within striking distance....Plan accordingly..

Vortex i think for the time being both GFDL and UKMET are being considered outliers by tpc. 06z HWRF just in is also futher east with its cat 6.

[tolakram]

Good grief.

Saved Images, gfs 2011082206 run

[clfenwi]

06Z HWRF. Final point is southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, a fair bit off-shore.

Code: Select all

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER                                           
                                                                               
NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR                             
                                                                               
TROPICAL STORM IRENE     09L                                                   
                                                                               
INITIAL TIME   6Z AUG 22                                                       
                                                                               
FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)
                                             
HOUR     LATITUDE    LONGITUDE    MIN PRESS (hPa)     MAX SFC WIND (KTS)
                                             
HOUR:   0.0  LONG:  -65.80  LAT:  18.20  MIN PRESS (hPa):  990.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  59.00
HOUR:   6.0  LONG:  -67.10  LAT:  18.40  MIN PRESS (hPa):  988.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  62.00
HOUR:  12.0  LONG:  -68.10  LAT:  18.70  MIN PRESS (hPa):  982.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  67.00
HOUR:  18.0  LONG:  -69.20  LAT:  19.20  MIN PRESS (hPa):  977.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  77.00
HOUR:  24.0  LONG:  -70.20  LAT:  19.30  MIN PRESS (hPa):  975.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  66.00
HOUR:  30.0  LONG:  -71.00  LAT:  19.40  MIN PRESS (hPa):  980.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  65.00
HOUR:  36.0  LONG:  -71.60  LAT:  19.70  MIN PRESS (hPa):  977.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  66.00
HOUR:  42.0  LONG:  -72.10  LAT:  20.00  MIN PRESS (hPa):  977.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  67.00
HOUR:  48.0  LONG:  -72.70  LAT:  20.40  MIN PRESS (hPa):  971.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  70.00
HOUR:  54.0  LONG:  -73.10  LAT:  20.90  MIN PRESS (hPa):  966.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  82.00
HOUR:  60.0  LONG:  -73.80  LAT:  21.70  MIN PRESS (hPa):  955.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  85.00
HOUR:  66.0  LONG:  -74.40  LAT:  22.50  MIN PRESS (hPa):  953.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  89.00
HOUR:  72.0  LONG:  -75.10  LAT:  23.40  MIN PRESS (hPa):  947.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  94.00
HOUR:  78.0  LONG:  -75.70  LAT:  24.40  MIN PRESS (hPa):  944.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR:  84.0  LONG:  -76.30  LAT:  25.50  MIN PRESS (hPa):  936.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR:  90.0  LONG:  -76.80  LAT:  26.60  MIN PRESS (hPa):  935.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR:  96.0  LONG:  -77.40  LAT:  27.60  MIN PRESS (hPa):  932.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 102.0  LONG:  -77.80  LAT:  28.60  MIN PRESS (hPa):  933.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 108.0  LONG:  -78.30  LAT:  29.50  MIN PRESS (hPa):  933.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  97.00
HOUR: 114.0  LONG:  -78.60  LAT:  30.50  MIN PRESS (hPa):  934.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 120.0  LONG:  -78.90  LAT:  31.40  MIN PRESS (hPa):  932.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 126.0  LONG:  -79.20  LAT:  32.10  MIN PRESS (hPa):  933.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
    FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[tolakram]

more saves.

CMC





HWRF



GFDL still west FL over Cuba, not going to bother saving it.

[Bocadude85]

bottom line Irene will have more water to work with which in turn likely means a much stronger storm...At the end of the day weather a direct hit into FL or not she will be within striking distance....Plan accordingly..

I found this part of the NHC discussion very interesting

WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

[clfenwi]

06Z HWRF wind swath

[clfenwi]

06Z GFDL Final point is just off west Peninsular coast of Florida, more or less due west of Ocala

HOUR: .0 LONG: -65.92 LAT: 18.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.41
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -67.19 LAT: 18.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.82
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -68.24 LAT: 18.68 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.66 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.30
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -69.13 LAT: 18.76 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.55
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -69.99 LAT: 18.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.34
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -71.35 LAT: 19.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.20 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.05
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -72.54 LAT: 19.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.18
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -73.49 LAT: 19.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.54
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -74.34 LAT: 19.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.32 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.88
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -75.18 LAT: 20.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.76 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.72
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.13 LAT: 20.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.12
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -76.98 LAT: 21.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.64
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -77.80 LAT: 22.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.93 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.97
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -78.62 LAT: 22.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.80
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.19 LAT: 23.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.11
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.80 LAT: 24.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 956.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 97.22
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -80.42 LAT: 25.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.69
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -81.14 LAT: 26.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 952.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.02
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -81.68 LAT: 26.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.75
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -82.05 LAT: 27.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.62
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -82.52 LAT: 28.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.08
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -83.06 LAT: 29.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.16

[Bocadude85]

The TVCN is farther east than the NHC track.. I would expect another east shift at 11am

[Vortex]

So the battle between the GFDL and HWRF rages on.....The implications are significant. Can anyone explain why their is such a divergence between the 2. I usually favor the GFDL in terms of trends ect...Thank in advance.

[tolakram]

:uarrow: So the battle between the GFDL and HWRF rages on.....The implications are significant. Can anyone explain why their is such a divergence between the 2. I usually favor the GFDL in terms of trends ect...Thank in advance.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO GFDL lost a long time ago and as a software person myself the programmers of that model should be embarrassed if not already out of a job. First the problem with initializing storms, as wxman pointed out, and now a track that can't really happen since Irene is already north of PR and looks to be still heading NW. Bugs happen, but they need to react faster if anyone is going to rely on this model again. In the meantime I'll look around for some crow, just in case.

[DESTRUCTION5]

:uarrow: So the battle between the GFDL and HWRF rages on.....The implications are significant. Can anyone explain why their is such a divergence between the 2. I usually favor the GFDL in terms of trends ect...Thank in advance.

I don't get it either vortex.. they are usually mirroring eachother and this year they are on 2 different maps.. looking at that wind swath above it looks like they forgot to put the high in the model this morn...lol

[gatorcane]

The TVCN is farther east than the NHC track.. I would expect another east shift at 11am

The TVCN track iis only slightly east of where they have it now.

But yes, would expect a slight shift east but not a big one out of respect for the UKMET and GFDL

[Evil Jeremy]

Is the 06z HWRF east or west of the 00z?

[clfenwi]

06Z GFDL wind swath

[fox13weather]

this storm will end up scaring a lot of people and frustrating countless meteorologists as it parallels the east coast of the United States while never making landfall.

[NEXRAD]

:uarrow: So the battle between the GFDL and HWRF rages on.....The implications are significant. Can anyone explain why their is such a divergence between the 2. I usually favor the GFDL in terms of trends ect...Thank in advance.

One possible difference is that the GFDL pulls Irene across Hispaniola and maintains it a weaker system for a longer period of time. Per the shallow BAMM this would likely keep Irene a bit farther west in a short to medium range. The HWRF keeps Irene stronger and farther north early on. That said, this is not the likely only reason for the GFDL vs. HWRF discrepancy. Note that the majority of the 00Z and 06Z guidance took a weaker Irene over the Dominican Republic - including the GFS and CMC. These models then pulled Irene more east than the GFDL.

One important thing to note is that most of the 00Z/06Z guidance does take the storm fully over or even south of the Dominican Republic, which seems improbable given Irene's present location now north of Puerto Rico. Now that the hurricane is likely to miss direct eye interaction with Hispaniola - or - merely skirt the northernmost coastlines of this land mass, there will doubtlessly me consequences numerically speaking. I'd expect to see some interesting shifts with the 12Z models. Whether those shifts are east or west is beyond my guess at this point.

However, a couple of things worth noting... The models have generally nudged a little more left since late yesterday. Also, the present trough that's brought severe wx to the Middle Atlantic and Northeast yesterday is swinging Eward and will pass north of Irene tonight. The next trough will be considerably shallower and per the GFS, the 500mb height anomalies suggest this trough will provide limited mid-level impacts on ridging stretching from the Atlantic through the Carolinas and Continental U.S. beyond late Wednesday.

(As always, rely on official information from the NHC and/or your local NWS Forecast Office. Information included here is non-official and should not be used for decision making.)

- Jay
South Florida

[jlauderdal]

The TVCN is farther east than the NHC track.. I would expect another east shift at 11am

The TVCN track iis only slightly east of where they have it now.

But yes, would expect a slight shift east but not a big one out of respect for the UKMET and GFDL

east shift in the cards especially with gfdl coming east...my 150 prediction looking better(just forget about the direction and its all good)

[Bocadude85]

Is the 06z HWRF east or west of the 00z?

East....