ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[GCANE]

You can't even tell a vorticity any more in the TPW loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

IMHO, I think it is shaking off that dry slot to the south and may be reconnecting with the ITCZ infeed.

Air ahead is forecast to be more unstable.

Moderate shear may in fact fire some MCS's down the road.

I haven't written this one off quite yet.

West Carib is usually the place where TC's get rolling, east Carib is always a tough haul.

[cycloneye]

ATCF is still tracking something

AL, 90, 2011072312, , BEST, 0, 153N, 615W, 25, 1013, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

And the tropical models are still hanging with 90L

12z models:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 231228
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1228 UTC SAT JUL 23 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110723 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110723  1200   110724  0000   110724  1200   110725  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.3N  61.5W   16.5N  65.0W   17.5N  68.8W   18.6N  72.6W
BAMD    15.3N  61.5W   16.0N  64.3W   16.7N  66.9W   17.5N  69.5W
BAMM    15.3N  61.5W   16.1N  64.8W   16.9N  68.0W   17.6N  71.2W
LBAR    15.3N  61.5W   16.0N  64.7W   16.6N  67.9W   17.3N  70.8W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          28KTS          33KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          28KTS          33KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110725  1200   110726  1200   110727  1200   110728  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  76.2W   20.6N  82.1W   22.1N  86.4W   23.7N  90.4W
BAMD    18.2N  71.8W   19.6N  75.4W   20.9N  78.4W   21.7N  82.1W
BAMM    18.2N  74.2W   19.4N  79.2W   20.6N  83.5W   21.3N  88.0W
LBAR    18.0N  73.2W   20.1N  76.7W   22.7N  78.1W   24.9N  79.4W
SHIP        38KTS          46KTS          55KTS          64KTS
DSHP        33KTS          45KTS          55KTS          49KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.3N LONCUR =  61.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 =  58.2W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  13.8N LONM24 =  54.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


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[NDG]

You can't even tell a vorticity any more in the TPW loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

IMHO, I think it is shaking off that dry slot to the south and may be reconnecting with the ITCZ infeed.

Air ahead is forecast to be more unstable.

Moderate shear may in fact fire some MCS's down the road.

I haven't written this one off quite yet.

West Carib is usually the place where TC's get rolling, east Carib is always a tough haul.

I am not writing it off either, I think it is still has the potential. I agree I think the dry air that wrapped around to the south of it yesterday it made the storms colapse last nigth along with diminishing surface convergence. I think that a new area of vorticity will get better organized in the northern Leeward Islands or near P.R. later today but it has to stay away from Hispaniola and Cuba if it tries to get better organized as it moves WNW. Last night's ECMWF is still forecasting an upper level ridge to move along westward with 90L, so upper level conditions may not be that bad.

[dwsqos2]

The tropical models hung with Gaston last year. SHIPS and LGEM brought it up to 130 knot+ intensities. Gaston's peak was 35 knots.

[KWT]

Yeah down the line this one still needs to be watched, probably a little early still outside before 65W for something to get going this low in latitude but this system is a sign we are close now.

Does need to be watched once in either the Gulf or the BoC...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If it gets south of Hispanola and Cuba, where the hottest waters reside, with even marginally good upper air conditions, this could rapidly get its act together. But the overall size of this wave is a big issue. Such a big storm envelope is much harder to get spinning in the first place than a more compact storm. It needs to develop a broad spin in order to take advantage of any heat content up ahead.
Just the fact that this has potential lets us know we are about to get into the CV season. I suspect we'll have a busy August & September this year. (What are the MJO "hot" weeks ahead?)

[TheBurn]

[canes04]

keep an eye on the area near the butterly island moving wnw.
i think this is where the surface low forms later today.

[cycloneye]

Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands are under a Flood Watch until Sunday afternoon.Visit the Caribbean thread at Caribbean & US Weather forum for the details.

This is what we will get later today.





Both pics have been uploaded by imageshack.us

[sunnyday]

I'm disappointed; I thought we would have something to watch for a while, but this doesn't look good at all.

[ROCK]

I'm disappointed; I thought we would have something to watch for a while, but this doesn't look good at all.

not much to look at today....but it has the potential....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ROCK]

The tropical models hung with Gaston last year. SHIPS and LGEM brought it up to 130 knot+ intensities. Gaston's peak was 35 knots.

and your point?

[jasons2k]

I think will be a tough go for the next several days. There's too much low level shear in the Caribbean. That, coupled with land interaction as it moves WNW, will keep chances for any development really low. If it can survive and make it into the Gulf, then chances for development will increase. It looks like mid-to-late next week when things could get more interesting.

[Blown Away]

ATCF is still tracking something
AL, 90, 2011072312, , BEST, 0, 153N, 615W, 25, 1013, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

The only spot left is the small convection ball over Butterfly Islands which is near their spot. 90L is on life support IMO.

[NDG]

I think will be a tough go for the next several days. There's too much low level shear in the Caribbean. That, coupled with land interaction as it moves WNW, will keep chances for any development really low. If it can survive and make it into the Gulf, then chances for development will increase. It looks like mid-to-late next week when things could get more interesting.

If the vorticity gets on the north side of Hispaniola & Cuba away from the low level shear of the eastern & central Caribbean it will have chance before it gets into the GOM, but it still remains questionable, IMO.

[Blown Away]

TAFB has changed their tune w/ 90L's wave moving N of Cuba in 72 hours, yesterday this wave was shown moving through the Central Caribbean? I have never seen them tag a wave "Possible Tropical Cyclone" w/o the "Low" being shown? I suspect they will drop this later today.

[Dean4Storms]

I just don't see this doing much for at least several more days. No organized convection, dry air, big islands and no global model support from any of the best performing models. This is July and it is always tough for a Tropical Wave to get going until it reaches the western Carib., Gulf or off the SE US Coast, just not much moisture with it.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I doubt 90L will ever really develop with land interaction and wind shear. It looked possible yesterday, but it just fell apart last night - pressures are rising, no real sign of a well-defined circulation. Looks like we will probably finish July with two named storms, unless we have a pop-up system like Cindy.

[Gustywind]

Strong showers and nice claps of thunder with numerous lightnings were making a nasty "show" in my area during the last two hours. Hopefully things have calm down for now but only in my locality. Others localities on the eastern side of the island continue to deal with these big showers and tstorms. Be safe and dry my friends who live in the Leewards BVI PR. Keep us informed.