ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

TAFB doesn't see 98L as a threat to Florida.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171942
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 24 20110717
193230 2730N 07820W 9908 00189 0125 +225 +207 304031 032 033 000 00
193300 2730N 07822W 9905 00194 0128 +224 +208 316033 033 033 000 03
193330 2730N 07823W 9903 00199 0131 +224 +209 324032 034 030 000 03
193400 2729N 07825W 9911 00195 0135 +223 +209 329032 033 029 001 03
193430 2728N 07826W 9907 00201 0139 +225 +211 329030 030 026 000 00
193500 2727N 07827W 9905 00205 0141 +225 +212 331029 030 026 000 00
193530 2726N 07828W 9908 00205 0143 +225 +213 334029 029 026 001 00
193600 2724N 07829W 9908 00207 0146 +225 +214 330028 028 024 000 00
193630 2723N 07830W 9908 00209 0147 +224 +214 323028 030 024 001 00
193700 2722N 07832W 9901 00216 0149 +225 +213 321026 027 026 001 00
193730 2721N 07833W 9907 00211 0150 +229 +213 325025 026 024 001 00
193800 2720N 07834W 9906 00213 0150 +230 +212 322024 025 024 000 03
193830 2718N 07834W 9904 00213 0150 +230 +213 315021 022 /// /// 03
193900 2717N 07832W 9905 00213 0149 +233 +214 303020 020 022 002 03
193930 2717N 07830W 9903 00215 0148 +232 +216 304021 022 025 001 00
194000 2717N 07828W 9901 00213 0147 +232 +217 305024 027 030 001 00
194030 2717N 07826W 9903 00213 0146 +232 +217 300026 026 030 000 00
194100 2717N 07824W 9914 00202 0146 +235 +217 296025 026 028 000 00
194130 2717N 07822W 9905 00209 0145 +235 +218 290026 027 027 001 00
194200 2717N 07820W 9908 00206 0145 +235 +218 285026 027 029 001 00
$$
;

[x-y-no]

OK, I'm convinced.

44 knot FL winds, west winds over 30 knots FL - this is a TS

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm thinking we may see a flare-up over the LLC during D max that will initiate a clearer strengthening trend.

[brunota2003]

[KWT]

Looks like the models have rather badly underestimated the strength of the low's circulation, no models has anything close to 30-40kts like it currently has...

[Bocadude85]

TAFB doesn't see 98L as a threat to Florida.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Yea the system will most likely head of to the NE in 48 hours or so

[northjaxpro]

Thanks Brunota, LLC maybe a touch elongated to one side but its pretty strong, you don't get west wuinds of that strength without a strong LLC being present.

Its probably Bret right now fwiw...

KWT. it is right on the threshold of Tropical Storm status. With it being so close the the Northwestern Bahamas, NHC just may bump it to TS status and initiate advisories. We will know shortly.

[brunota2003]

Temps went from 20.5*C to 23.5*C from outside to in or next to the center. Definite warm core.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

TAFB doesn't see 98L as a threat to Florida.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree, with the setup, if it is going to be a threat to anyhwere it'll be Cape Hatteras, Cape Cod or maybe Nova Scotia or Newfoundland down the road.

[KWT]

KWT. it is right on the threshold of Tropical Storm status. With it being so close the the Northwestern Bahamas, NHC just may bump it to TS status and initiate advisories. We will know shortly.

to be honest its a solid 35kts system, possibly 40kts is the SMFR is to believed. My gut is they will go with 35kts. no doubt its a TC one way or the other...

Think it was pretty obvious, thats why so many were surprised with jsut 40% earlier...obviously was too low, you don't get that sort of banding without some sort of LLC being present.

[brunota2003]

Recon did a quick U-Turn and are heading back to the wind shift.

000
URNT15 KNHC 171952
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 25 20110717
194230 2716N 07819W 9908 00205 0143 +235 +218 282027 027 031 000 03
194300 2716N 07817W 9914 00199 0143 +235 +219 276026 027 027 000 03
194330 2716N 07815W 9903 00209 0142 +235 +219 273026 027 027 001 00
194400 2716N 07813W 9907 00204 0141 +235 +220 269025 026 025 001 00
194430 2716N 07811W 9909 00202 0140 +235 +220 265024 025 025 001 00
194500 2716N 07809W 9906 00204 0140 +236 +220 265025 026 027 000 00
194530 2716N 07807W 9909 00202 0140 +237 +220 264026 026 026 001 00
194600 2716N 07805W 9903 00206 0140 +236 +221 263025 025 026 000 03
194630 2716N 07803W 9906 00205 0140 +238 +221 260024 025 025 000 00
194700 2716N 07801W 9905 00207 0141 +245 +222 243023 025 021 000 00
194730 2716N 07759W 9905 00207 0142 +245 +223 238023 023 021 001 00
194800 2717N 07757W 9900 00214 0144 +244 +224 226018 021 /// /// 03
194830 2718N 07757W 9904 00209 0143 +244 +226 223017 018 021 000 03
194900 2719N 07758W 9908 00205 0141 +245 +228 234019 019 021 000 00
194930 2721N 07759W 9908 00202 0141 +240 +228 251017 019 022 001 00
195000 2722N 07800W 9904 00206 0139 +238 +228 242019 021 020 000 00
195030 2723N 07801W 9905 00202 0137 +236 +227 236018 019 020 001 00
195100 2724N 07802W 9906 00201 0136 +236 +226 231019 020 020 000 00
195130 2725N 07803W 9909 00195 0133 +235 +225 228020 021 022 000 00
195200 2727N 07804W 9903 00199 0132 +235 +224 226021 021 022 000 00
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

KWT. it is right on the threshold of Tropical Storm status. With it being so close the the Northwestern Bahamas, NHC just may bump it to TS status and initiate advisories. We will know shortly.

to be honest its a solid 35kts system, possibly 40kts is the SMFR is to believed. My gut is they will go with 35kts. no doubt its a TC one way or the other...

Think it was pretty obvious, thats why so many were surprised with jsut 40% earlier...obviously was too low, you don't get that sort of banding without some sort of LLC being present.

Yeah, that was a perfect example of NHC being too conservative for sure in this case earlier today.

[GCANE]

Poleward and equatorward outflow channels are setting up.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Only negative is some mid-level dry-air to the north, but it looks like it is setting up a good boundary layer in-feed.

CAPE has improved to a very strong 5000 J/Kg.

This needs to be watched very closely.

[Blown Away]

Most agree we may have a TD now, let's start talking about track. Seems the thinking is 98L will stay off Florida's coast and eventually move NE.

[brunota2003]

Recon made a U-Turn and are heading back to the wind shift noted earlier.

[KWT]

Yeah, that was a perfect example of NHC being too conservative for sure in this case earlier today.

I have to admit I was amazed they didn't at least go to 60-70% based on the vis imagery and obs.

Ah well!

Will be itneresting to see if a stronger system will change the models expectations with regards to movement. I'd still favour a NE movement and probably some short term strengthening before shear increases.

[KWT]

Recon made a U-Turn and are heading back to the wind shift noted earlier.

I wonder whether they want to check the exact location and also the strength of the system before the NHC pull the trigger.

[brunota2003]

I need to go! Someone take over please!

[Weatherfreak000]

Bret should be a pretty interesting system in the place it is now. I for one hope somehow it can make it into the GOM doesn't matter where he goes, we need the rain.