ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[Rgv20]

Looks like TS Arlene will bring some beneficial rainfall to the Rio Grande Valley.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
842 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

TXZ248>257-291000-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
842 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS TROPICAL
STORM ARLENE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICAN
COAST. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. MORE FREQUENT RAIN BANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS MOST AREAS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE STORM
APPROACHES THE MEXICAN COAST LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF RIO
GRANDE RIVER. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY COULD TOTAL 1 TO 3
WITH AREAS UP TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING. IN ANY CASE...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL
POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND AS MUCH AS 4
INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEK SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH THE STORM TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BEAR ANY IMPACT. TROPICAL EAST BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE AND BEACH WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS OFFSHORE TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWELLS TO INCREASE
ABOVE 8 FEET WEDNESDAY WITH THE SWELL PERIOD NEARING 10 SECONDS.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL TROPICAL STORM ARLENE
MOVES INLAND SOME TIME THURSDAY. ALONG THE BEACHES RIP CURRENT
RISK HAS BEEN ELEVATED TO HIGH AND WILL REMAIN HIGH POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH ARLENE STRENGTHENS.

$$

[Rgv20]

Brownsville evening forecast discussion.

000
FXUS64 KBRO 290226 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
926 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WELL ALL EYES ARE ON
THE GULF THIS EVENING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND QUICKLY DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM ARLENE THE FIRST TROPICAL
CYCLONE OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LAND FALL NEAR TAMPICO ALONG THE CENTRAL NORTHEAST MEXICAN GULF
COAST SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARLENE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN SLOWLY BUT REMAIN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING
INLAND. THE MAIN IMPACTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE RAINFALL
AND ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE AND ALONG SOUTH PADRE ISLAND WITH SOME
POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING. HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED THE QPF OR RAIN AMOUNTS GRIDS.
RAIN BANDS TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARLENE
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. A LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND ARLENE IS
INDICATED BY SEVERAL RAIN BANDS EXTENDING WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ONE BAND IS NEARING PORT ISABEL AS OF THIS WRITING. REFRESHED THE
SPS HIGHLIGHTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND ADDING PARAGRAPH FOR THE MARINE AREAS. SOME SLOSHING OF
SURF COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS WAVES REACH
A MAXIMUM AND HIGH TIDE APPROACHES AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY AT THAT TIME. SOME RUN UP OF
WATER ALONG TO THE DUNES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE GOING FORECAST MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TS ARLENE IS FCST TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY IN MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THRU THE DAYTIME SO ADDED THIS WORDING INTO THE FCST.
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. ALSO...INCREASED QPF OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY
BASED ON HPC GUIDANCE. WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVG THRU
THE AREA THURSDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE HELD DOWN
SO DID DROP HIGHS DOWN A NOTCH MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S EAST TO
MID 90S WEST.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE POSTED AND EXTENDED FOR ALL OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY WHILE SWELLS NEARING 7 FEET AT THE
42020 BUOY AS OF 845 PM. MARINE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES WEST
TOWARDS THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO. WINDS AND SEAS COULD
INCREASE MORE THEN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL ARLENE MOVES INLAND SOMETIME THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SEAS IN
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD FOR THE MARINE AREAS. NOW THAT TROPICAL
STORM ARLENE HAS FORMED AND IS FCST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO
SOMETIME THURSDAY...UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASED SWELL
ACTIVITY IS GOING TO BE THE LIKELY RESULT AS WE MOVE THRU THE END
OF THE WEEK THANKS TO ARLENE AND THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THEIR STRONGEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN AGITATED AND ROUGH THURSDAY
AND ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING DURING THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

[MississippiWx]

With Arlene's pressure at 1003mb, a lot of the models have initialized about 5mb too weak with the system. Most, if not all, 18z guidance initialized at 1008mb, including the hurricane models. That could have a fairly significant impact on strength predictions from the models. Hopefully, the 00z models will initialize at the correct pressure.

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 290235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...ARLENE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 94.1W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[vbhoutex]

So at some point might they start issuing watches for T/S that have not developed yet? They issue hurricane watches for T/S some times

I would presume that is a possibility, especially if there is a system that begins to show development into a TD close to shore as we have seen a few times in the past. As you said they do issue hurricane watches during TS that have not reached Hurricane strength but are expected to. I would guess the same thought process would be used in that situation, ie if there is a high probability of a TS forming then they might issue a TS watch. JMHO
Pulling the trigger when they did on Arlene surprised me, but I had forgotten about the longer lead times. It makes sense to me now.

[brunota2003]

Well, I cannot get to my usual products right now, they have not been updated yet to reflect Arlene (maybe no one is home? I dunno)...so no RI forecast tonight. I will say, I do not believe this system will RI, but it wouldn't be the first time one did.

[cycloneye]

Discussion came out very late.


TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
ARLENE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...THERE
HAS BEEN NO FURTHER INCREASE IN ITS ORGANIZATION. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED SINCE 0000 UTC...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE...AND UW CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE
ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING ARLENE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER REDUCTION OF THE WESTERLY
SHEAR COULD LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

ARLENE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/6. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD.
SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT ARLENE COULD TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SUGGESTS THIS
POSSIBILITY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS IMPACTS COULD BE FELT OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 21.4N 94.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 21.8N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 22.0N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 21.9N 97.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 21.7N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 02/0000Z 21.3N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[South Texas Storms]

Hmmm since Arlene is likely going to make landfall very close to where Alex did at exactly this time last year, I wonder if Tropical Storm Harvey will make landfall on the TX/MX border in early Sept. and dump widespread 5-10 inches of rain across the eastern half of Texas (like Tropical Storm Hermine did last Sept.) ending our horrible drought? I sure do hope so!

[SouthDadeFish]

Anyone else seeing the improvement in banding that I am?

[Rgv20]

Arlene promises to be a very wet system for Central and Northeast Mexico. Hopefully it gives us a few inches here in South Texas.

0z Rainfall Totals ending Friday 7pm (72hrs).

[lebron23]

Looking better...45mph in advisory in a hour i'd say

[HURAKAN]

To say that I'm shocked would be an understatement. I would've never expected the NHC to pull the trigger at night.

[Macrocane]

Yeah, I see more banding and what it seems to be new inflow channels, the circulation needs to tighten more though.

[lebron23]

Mexico and S Texas need the rain but not all at once...HPC putting a bulls-eye of 14.1 inches over northern mexico

[ROCK]

nice banding now with some covection over the LLC....she is getting going quickly so I would buy a cat 1 by tomorrow....

[Hurricane]

HUMBERTO PART 2.

[Hylian Auree]

Solid organization this morning. I'm quite surprised at the improvement it underwent in less than 24 hours, especially with the shear conditions.

[tailgater]

I'm noticing a wedge of dry on the IR sat loop approaching Arlene from the N, this could certainly stop or reverse the strenthing process.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn-s.html

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
400 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...ARLENE SLOWLY ORGANIZING...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY AS
IT MOVES TOWARD MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 95.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
400 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF ARLENE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0502 UTC DID NOT SHOW MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH A LACK OF PROMINENT
BANDING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF
ABOUT 35 KT...SO THAT WILL REMAIN THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
ARLENE LATER THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE
STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.

UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS DECREASING...AND
GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT SEEMS LIKE IT IS
ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE ARLENE STRENGTHENS. THE BULK OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL...THOUGH THE HWRF HAS THE SYSTEM BRIEFLY AS A
HURRICANE. GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF ARLENE AND THE LACK OF ANY
INNER CORE FEATURES...HURRICANE STRENGTH APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE
NHC FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS NOT PROVIDED A DEFINITIVE CENTER
POSITION...HOWEVER GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ARLENE IS
STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT...OR EVEN A
BIT FASTER THAN THAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A WESTWARD TURN IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS ARLENE IS STEERED AROUND A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE COULD EVEN MOVE
A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST TOMORROW DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE
RIDGE...AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW GLOBAL MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING LANDFALL IN A
LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS.

GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 21.8N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 22.1N 95.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 22.1N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 22.0N 98.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/0600Z 21.8N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[Cryomaniac]

HUMBERTO PART 2.

Stranger things have happened at sea.

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac and is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose

I think it looks pretty good. Dunno if it'll RI, but it's happened in that area before. For now I think a cat 1 is a reasonable ceilling, but what do I know.