ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

the 0z GFS doesnt see squat....this model is doing horrible this year IMO....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_084l.gif

Hey on the bright side, GFS hasn't had a problem with phantom storms that never materialize I think they "tweaked" it so if ever it actually DOES show something, better look out!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

With the wave being so broad, it's likely the initial point of the model runs will continue to change until we see a consolidation of convection.

[ROCK]

Anyone staying up for the Euro tonight? I'm very interested to see what it shows as the GFS has been awful lately.

not me,,,, I usuallly wait until I have defined LLC

[HurricaneBrain]

With the wave being so broad, it's likely the initial point of the model runs will continue to change until we see a consolidation of convection.

Completely agree!

[SouthFloridawx]

It's a pretty big wave. I wonder what the ULL to the west of it is going to do.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro initializes its vorticity pretty well imo but the rest of the run is pretty unimpressive.

[South Texas Storms]

The 6z TVCN (consensus of all the 6z models) shows a heading toward south Texas in a little over 5 days from now. Also the SHIPS is still forecasting a hurricane in 120 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

850mb vorticity 9 hours ago:


Now:


It's weaker now, but still consolidated.

[South Texas Storms]

Dang how did it weaken so much in 9 hours? Shear?

[bamajammer4eva]

0z Euro initializes its vorticity pretty well imo but the rest of the run is pretty unimpressive.

Yeah shoots it up into the FL Panhandle in 6 days.

Edit
Doesnt sound too far fetched considering this from NWS Tallahassee...

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY).
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGES
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WEAKNESS ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL GA/AL WILL HELP
TO AUGMENT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHER POPS AND LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES THAN DURING THE SHORT TERM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS BEFORE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A BIT LOWER POPS AND
WARMER TEMPS DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE RIDGE.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: Dang how did it weaken so much in 9 hours? Shear?

Probably. When I was looking at the visible sat it was obvious there was SWerly shear out ahead of it.

[HurricaneBrain]

Convection flaring up on the eastern side. Still a mess altogether.

[jhpigott]

Nice flare up of storms on the north end of the wave axis.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[HouTXmetro]

Looks a hot mess, maybe it will develop later in the western carrib or Gulf if at all

[KWT]

To be fair the models haven't really been doing all that much with this system and its rare that something strong develops without some sort of model agreement, sure you can get quick fire systems like Bret develop and the models can miss it, but for now its certainly not looking anywhere near as impressive.

Still could do something down the line however...

[cycloneye]

Right now,the wave in the Eastern Atlantic looks better than 90L.20% at 8 AM.

My report from San Juan is .34 in my gauge so far as those outer bands moved thru since midnight.

[NDG]

And just like that 90L has gone backwards.
Time and time again we do not learn our lessons that if an invest does not have much if any global support, it ain't going doing much at least in the short term.

[cycloneye]

No surprise!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[NDG]

You can't even tell a vorticity any more in the TPW loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

[NDG]

With the fast flow of deep easterly winds which sometimes I like to think of it as the Tropical Surface Wind Rapids of the Caribbean don't look for any re-organization in this area east of 70 or 75W and south of 18N.
The only way may still see something out of this if a new vorticity forms north or near P.R./Virgin Islands and stays away from Hispaniola as it heads WNW over the next day or two, something similar to yesterday's 12z euro run.