ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[SouthDadeFish]

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/2075/goes19102011198gp1mlr.jpg

latest visible

Center looks elongated there.

[ROCK]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

Buoy data that should be real close to the LLC.....pressure falling...

[ROCK]

latest visible

Center looks elongated there.

still not stacked ideally is what I see....

[wxman57]

No question of westerly winds. Northern Bahamas reporting west at 15 kts presently. Plane is heading SSW toward the LLC now. Once it moves south of 28N we should see some westerly winds.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171922
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 22 20110717
191230 2826N 07802W 9955 00179 0160 +230 +210 080021 022 022 001 00
191300 2823N 07804W 9956 00176 0160 +230 +211 080021 022 023 002 00
191330 2821N 07805W 9953 00179 0159 +230 +211 079023 023 024 001 00
191400 2820N 07806W 9954 00179 0158 +230 +211 078022 023 024 000 00
191430 2819N 07807W 9960 00171 0157 +230 +211 081022 023 023 000 00
191500 2817N 07808W 9958 00171 0155 +230 +211 078022 023 025 001 00
191530 2816N 07808W 9956 00172 0155 +228 +211 082021 023 022 001 00
191600 2814N 07809W 9958 00170 0154 +225 +211 080022 023 024 000 03
191630 2813N 07810W 9955 00171 0154 +227 +210 079023 024 025 002 00
191700 2811N 07811W 9962 00165 0153 +226 +210 082023 023 024 000 00
191730 2810N 07812W 9954 00171 0152 +227 +209 078023 024 024 001 03
191800 2808N 07813W 9957 00169 0152 +225 +209 077023 024 024 001 03
191830 2807N 07813W 9959 00165 0151 +225 +209 076023 024 024 000 00
191900 2805N 07814W 9955 00169 0151 +225 +209 078023 024 023 000 00
191930 2804N 07814W 9958 00166 0148 +225 +208 076023 023 023 000 00
192000 2802N 07815W 9908 00210 0150 +221 +208 078024 025 024 001 00
192030 2801N 07815W 9902 00213 0147 +220 +208 078024 025 023 001 00
192100 2759N 07816W 9908 00207 0147 +220 +207 082024 025 023 002 03
192130 2757N 07816W 9905 00208 0145 +220 +206 080024 025 024 000 00
192200 2756N 07817W 9905 00208 0144 +219 +205 078024 025 023 000 03
$$
;

[KWT]

Oh yeah its not stacked, thats pretty evident but then again the LLC looks strong enough to merit an upgrade, center of the circulation should be fairly close to the SW edge of the convection. Does look elongated though that much is true.

[brunota2003]

Hello strong winds:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171933
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 23 20110717
192230 2754N 07817W 9907 00205 0143 +218 +204 076026 026 024 001 00
192300 2753N 07817W 9907 00205 0143 +216 +203 071027 028 026 000 00
192330 2751N 07818W 9907 00204 0142 +218 +202 072029 029 027 001 00
192400 2749N 07818W 9908 00201 0140 +217 +200 076028 030 029 001 00
192430 2748N 07819W 9905 00203 0139 +210 +198 070031 032 032 003 00
192500 2746N 07819W 9907 00198 0135 +213 +194 061034 035 032 005 00
192530 2745N 07819W 9910 00191 0132 +212 +190 057037 038 035 002 03
192600 2743N 07820W 9908 00190 0128 +208 +185 054040 041 039 005 03
192630 2741N 07820W 9903 00189 0121 +207 +182 045043 044 043 004 03
192700 2739N 07820W 9905 00178 0111 +216 +180 040037 044 042 004 03
192730 2738N 07820W 9905 00172 0104 +231 +179 010023 025 028 004 03
192800 2736N 07819W 9910 00167 0102 +235 +182 341017 019 024 001 03
192830 2735N 07818W 9907 00169 0100 +233 +186 302017 019 023 003 03
192900 2735N 07816W 9902 00172 0100 +228 +191 264021 027 027 005 00
192930 2734N 07814W 9905 00177 0110 +227 +194 229031 032 /// /// 03
193000 2733N 07814W 9900 00185 0113 +226 +196 240029 030 033 003 03
193030 2732N 07815W 9908 00178 0115 +225 +198 256032 033 035 001 00
193100 2731N 07816W 9906 00184 0118 +225 +201 265031 032 033 001 00
193130 2730N 07817W 9915 00180 0122 +225 +203 272030 030 030 003 03
193200 2730N 07819W 9896 00198 0124 +223 +205 288029 030 032 000 00
$$
;

There's your wind shift:

[dwsqos2]

Flight-level winds over 40 knots; extrap pressure around 1010; low for environmental pressure; SAB at T1.5. That probably will be enough.

[Ivanhater]

Bret, is that you?

[brunota2003]

Flight level winds of 43 knots (30s) and 44 knots (10s gust), a well defined wind shift right around that point.

[BigA]

31 kt west wind per latest recon. It isn't stacked, but the LLC is fairly vigorous.

[KWT]

Hello Bret....surprisingly strong winds close to the center, looks like the LLC is quite tight...

Going to be impossible for the NHC to ignore now I'd have thought!

[SouthDadeFish]

From 40% to a TD/TS lol. Nice.

[wxman57]

Westerly winds at 30-35kts, too. No question it's a TD. I do think those SFMR winds may be a bit suspect, but the plane did find FL winds of over 40 kts. Wouldn't be surprised if the NHC initiated advisories on TS Bret in an hour.

[KWT]

31 kt west wind per latest recon. It isn't stacked, but the LLC is fairly vigorous.

Yep, thats for sure, not stacked but then again I've seen many of these systems get upgraded with less evidence then 98L has, so fully expecting an upgrade any time soon.

just a question of whetehr they go 35kts or 40kts IMO...probably the former IMO.

[northjaxpro]

Flight-level winds over 40 knots; extrap pressure around 1010; low for environmental pressure; SAB at T1.5. That probably will be enough.

I agree. I think this is enough for NHC to upgrade for sure. Definitely a TD for now. May become a minimum TS later this evening or by tomorrow morning.

[brunota2003]

Here's a close up image:

[KWT]

Thanks Brunota, LLC maybe a touch elongated to one side but its pretty strong, you don't get west wuinds of that strength without a strong LLC being present.

Its probably Bret right now fwiw...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looks like it stays weak and heads NE, that low forming over the Virginia capes probably doesn't help

I wonder if the out of season "nor'easter" like low will absorb 98L, or deflect 98L out to sea? Will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves.