ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[MGC]

Yea, looks like Lee is finally on the move....get out of town Lee!

The east bound lanes of Hwy 90 are covered with sand....the surge was up to the seawall and there is a good bit of debris on the beach. Lost power when that last feeder band came through.....MGC

[baygirl_1]

In Mobile right now it's pouring down rain with some gusty wind and a tornado warning just to the east of us. Last night was pretty scary with the NWS reporting the possibility of three tornadoes in Mobile County at one time! Some damage in the south part of the county near Fowl River from a suspected tornado. The tv mets are reporting that some areas of our county and Jackson County, MS just to our west have received 9-10 inches of rain so far and they're predicting 4-7 more before tomorrow night. Pretty soggy here... and getting a little twitchy with all the tornado warnings going off!

[WeatherLovingDoc]

^^Thanks for that floater link, Chris. I wonder what the MET experts think about it.

We had 5 huge oak trees downed here from Hurricane Irene (some with Oak fungus in the center or the tree, which is involving major number of Oaks up here). One landed on our garage, another took out brick in our patio, another on a good size work shed. My husband and I decided to take down 3 more large oaks, sitting feet from our two story house as a consequence. The area looks barren now, but with time it will look better.

So, I hear you on trees and rain and wind, and wish you good outcome.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Will504]

No rain or wind here in Beaumont, TX, today. It is cloudy and the forecast calls for a 60% chance, so we will see. It was nice to have a rainy day for once.

Looks like you have a decent chance of some light rain.

There is a line that is still holding up that might make it over east houston and Galveston.


Keep doing your rain dance, it might happen.

[Kennethb]

Lee seems to be moving north slowly. Here in South Baton Rouge we still have SSE winds though the intensity of the rain has lessened. Winds are gusty 25-35 or so.

[BigB0882]

Lee claimed a victim in Baton Rouge...our door wreath. May it RIP. Is it appropriate to lay a wreathe at a door wreaths funeral?

[stormy70]

Over on the other side of the Bay (Mobile Bay) it is partly cloudy to sunny here. I didn't even know that my county was under a Tornado warning earlier and that it was in Mobile Bay about 10 minutes from where I am. They cancel the tornado warning for this area.

[jes]

Were those Live Oaks or Water Oaks. Live Oaks are supposed to protect you during a storm.

[chrisnnavarre]

Is everyone looking at a radar presentation or something concerning NE movement, because I don't see it. I see presently NNW movement and if you turn on the NHC tropical points on the current floater you'll see that Lee is NW of the NHC track and possibly heading NW, (looping around again?), and yes he does look better over land now than he did over water. I'm confused here, were is everyone getting NNE from?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

...LEE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 91.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...
445 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER.
DURING THE PAST HOUR...A COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE NEAR BURIS
IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...
74 KM/H AND A GUST TO 58 MPH...93 KM/H...ABOUT 100 FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE. SEVERAL OFFSHORE OIL RIGS ALSO CONTINUE TO REPORT
SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

A STORM SURGE VALUE OF MORE THAN 3 FEET RECENTLY OCCURRED JUST SOUTH
OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA AT AMERADA PASS.

REPORTS FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. WATER
LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE OCCURRING
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.
WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LEE MOVES FARTHER
INLAND AND WEAKENS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

...LEE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 91.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[Kennethb]

Is everyone looking at a radar presentation or something concerning NE movement, because I don't see it. I see presently NNW movement and if you turn on the NHC tropical points on the current floater you'll see that Lee is NW of the NHC track and possibly heading NW, (looping around again?), and yes he does look better over land now than he did over water. I'm confused here, were is everyone getting NNE from?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

You noticed that too. I would not be surprised to see a small loop, similiar to last night. We still have SSE - S winds here in South Baton Rouge.

[momwalker1966]

East Tn-Blount co. Lee is supposed to be headed in my direction Mon-Tues we are under Flash Flood advis, I think most of East Tn Valley is. I have NO weather knowledge so I don't post, love reading and seeing the maps and links. Thank you to all of you, I love seeing the info on these storms. We had a terrible storm last evening. Live wires down in lots of the neighborhoods, several homes and a school had roof damage. Hwy 95 was blocked by utility poles. We had lots of limbs down in my yard and lost a few tin panels on the barn. I should have been looking out my window rather than looking at all the cool maps and pics on these storms.

[StormTracker]

Can I just say this(slightly off topic)? Since I have been a member her @ S2K, there's one thing that's consistently-consistent! The NHC is about 95% correct most of the time, give or take a few hundred miles here or there! We have this want to be correct and the NHC to be wrong("stormtracker-instinct")! I'm there with most of you on that note! Every once in a while, we get it right with the Andrews & Katrinas, etc., but for the most part, FORTUNATELY, the NHC is pretty much on point! Now back to the NAM!!!

[Kennethb]

It appears to me that Lee is moving NNW now. My thinking is that he has been in a lack of steering environment for the past 24 hours. His movement has been by the one pocket of energy. Last night early as the energy was over West LA, he went west. As that energy came around later last night, he went south, east, and northeast. Would not surprise me to see him slowly complete a loop as the energy to his north swings back around.

Or perhaps he will eventually turn back to the NE?

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Were those Live Oaks or Water Oaks. Live Oaks are supposed to protect you during a storm.

Well in our area we have lots of different Oak varieties, and I think they were black oaks. The disease is in their core, and hollows them out from inside out making them susceptiable to limb drop and winds.

Now, back to LEE modeling.

[nashrobertsx]

Here's my unofficial thinking after looking at a bunch of maps just now. Lee is really feeling the trough. The front is almost at shreveport now (after checking dewpoints and surface charts), so maybe Lee will move more N or even NNW until the front catches up with it and sweeps it N, then NE, then E. That front is not expected to arrive in NOLA till tomorrow night around 5 pm. The front may be ahead of schedule. Also, wouldnt there be a huge pressure gradient with Lee and the High behind the front?
If so, the winds could be higher around here after FROPA then during this entire Lee event in many areas albiet from the N. Also, once that front gets into the GUlf and stalls, there is a good chance of a low forming on it, which I believe is where the NAM was getting onto with that system deep down in the Gulf.

[Nederlander]

No rain or wind here in Beaumont, TX, today. It is cloudy and the forecast calls for a 60% chance, so we will see. It was nice to have a rainy day for once.

Looks like you have a decent chance of some light rain.

There is a line that is still holding up that might make it over east houston and Galveston.


Keep doing your rain dance, it might happen.

We must be on opposite ends of Beaumont because its been raining all day with just a couple of short breaks. I'm close to downtown near the neches river. This morning it was a misty rain and this afternoon its a heavy drizzle and not letting up.

[unconquered]

I'm in South Park. It's raining off and on now, fairly light and a little windy.

[sphelps8681]

I am in Lumberton and we are getting some pretty good steady rain. Very light drizzley rain all morning just started to pickup this afternoon.