ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

the upper environment must get hostile enough to separate the mid level circ move it to the wsw...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

Its a right ole mess out there, system jsut can't get stacked at all...

Looks like the more conservative models that do northing with the system till at least north of the islands may well have had the right idea afterall...

Still needs close watching, but the bullish models aren't going to come off in the short term...MLC needs to die, its not going to dig down a surface feature because convection poofs every day too quickly for that to happen, attention needs to focus elsewhere...

Amazing to watch this system!

[SouthDadeFish]

the upper environment must get hostile enough to separate the mid level circ move it to the wsw...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I noticed that as well, but to be honest I don't see how. The GFS never really had them well stacked at any point after Hispaniola...

[ConvergenceZone]

The fact that the NHC sent another plane into this feature right after another one left leads me to believe this storm isn't as disorganized as some people here think.... They kept it at 90% for a reason.

Well, just like sometimes they keep it at 10% and we can't understand why it's not at 50%.
It's just the opposite too. Sometimes they have a high percentage and we can't figure out why it's not lower.

They might strart bringing the percentage down gradually IF the storm doesn't make any progress at all today with organizing.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: Blown Away,here is a closeup.

Looks less and less impressive. It seems to be drying up.

Watch the loop and you will see convection building along the E side.

[underthwx]

Gone fishin Emily..........

[Aric Dunn]

the upper environment must get hostile enough to separate the mid level circ move it to the wsw...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I noticed that as well, but to be honest I don't see how. The GFS never really had them well stacked at any point after Hispaniola...

yeah could be classic gfs anomaly .. lo

[RL3AO]

620
URNT15 KNHC 011636
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 03 20110801
162600 1644N 06231W 5278 05453 0281 -030 -125 086018 019 030 007 00
162630 1643N 06229W 5275 05456 0281 -030 -126 083018 019 029 003 00
162700 1642N 06227W 5278 05456 0281 -030 -126 087018 019 025 000 00
162730 1641N 06225W 5275 05455 0281 -030 -126 088018 019 022 000 00
162800 1640N 06223W 5277 05460 0280 -030 -127 087018 019 024 001 00
162830 1639N 06221W 5278 05449 0279 -030 -128 089019 019 024 001 00
162900 1638N 06218W 5276 05453 0278 -030 -129 088020 021 024 001 00
162930 1637N 06216W 5277 05452 0278 -034 -129 087021 022 026 000 00
163000 1636N 06214W 5278 05446 0278 -030 -130 080019 020 025 000 00
163030 1635N 06212W 5274 05457 0280 -028 -131 078017 018 026 000 00
163100 1634N 06210W 5278 05454 0279 -028 -132 079017 018 026 000 00
163130 1633N 06208W 5278 05445 0278 -027 -133 079017 018 026 000 00
163200 1632N 06205W 5275 05457 0279 -026 -133 076017 017 025 001 00
163230 1631N 06203W 5277 05451 0279 -025 -134 072017 017 025 000 00
163300 1629N 06201W 5278 05449 0280 -023 -134 074018 018 027 000 00
163330 1628N 06159W 5277 05454 0278 -020 -134 077017 018 027 000 00
163400 1627N 06157W 5275 05450 0278 -020 -134 078017 017 030 000 00
163430 1626N 06154W 5277 05450 0279 -024 -134 080017 018 034 005 00
163500 1625N 06152W 5275 05457 0279 -031 -134 085019 019 031 001 00
163530 1624N 06150W 5277 05455 0278 -035 -134 087018 018 027 000 00
$$
;

[Sanibel]

The question is what the Caribbean will do to it if it doesn't organize better before getting there.

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow: Blown Away,here is a closeup.

Looks less and less impressive. It seems to be drying up.

Watch the loop and you will see convection building along the E side.

the problem is, it's been doing that off and on for the last 24 hours.... Builds convection, then it dies down, then it looks like it's taking shape, then it doesn't....It doesn't seem to want to sustain any organization for very long.

[northjaxpro]

Another landfall near Florida, system probably wouldn't be *too strong* given the disruption by Hispaniola but the upper pattern does look good...obviously also dependant on the status of the system as well before land.

I think there is STILL more westward adjustments to come...

Although we don't yet have an initialization point in terms of a defined closed circulation with 91L, KWT I think that you are correct. It is reasonably safe to reason that westward adjustments with the models will continue. The length of time it is taking for this invest to consolidate assures that it will not be strong enough in terms of the system feeling any effects of a weakness to be drawn poleward, at least through the middle part of this week at the minimum.

[Hurricaneman]

I cant say for certian this will be Emily, this may never develop at all, but as we all know this could still become a strong system if it gets away from the stable enviornment

[otowntiger]

It's kinda scary as to how long this is taking to develop. Unless residents on the islands already know about this, they will have mere hours to prepare if it is classified.

Absolutely and that's why that's often a worrying scenario... but let's wait and see and hoping for the best if 91L continues to pose a threat for the Northern Windwards/Leewards.

There's some irony in all of that. I know what you're saying but if you think about it ,the fact that it's taking so long to develop is the opposite of scary. Since it's so slow to develop now there shouldn't be much worry about 'short notice' for the islanders because it certainly wont be much of anything at this rate of development. There is no evidence that this thing is going to spin up into anything too menacing if anything at all, in the short term anyway.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I still suspect an even further shift west of the models, as this still hasn't developed yet. A track over Cuba I suspect, prior to trying to recurve before hitting that ridge expanding west.

At what point is it "break point" for development, where anything that may (or may not) develop is instead forced westward without any pull to the north? Destination central America.

(S2k disclaimer)

[Aric Dunn]

Watch the loop and you will see convection building along the E side.

the problem is, it's been doing that off and on for the last 24 hours.... Builds convection, then it dies down, then it looks like it's taking shape, then it doesn't....It doesn't seem to want to sustain any organization for very long.

but this is the first time there has been and well defined low level vort at all.. I would put some money on this taking over..

[KWT]

Strange upper splitting of the energy, I know Hispaniola can do that to a system but then why does the GFS strengthen the system into landfall??

Hmm!

[otowntiger]

I"m beginning to wonder if future Emily may be one of the disturbances out in the eastern Atlantic.

[KWT]

the problem is, it's been doing that off and on for the last 24 hours.... Builds convection, then it dies down, then it looks like it's taking shape, then it doesn't....It doesn't seem to want to sustain any organization for very long.

Thats true, it seems to be struggling, but thats what happens when the system can't get stacked all that well, I honestly think that MLC will need to decay before development, to expect that feature to spin down a LLC is optimisitic, its had 72hrs to do that and has failed...

[Dean4Storms]

the upper environment must get hostile enough to separate the mid level circ move it to the wsw...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Has to be a TUTT on the SW periphery of the ridge?

[psyclone]

i thought this thing was gonna develop two days ago...instead it keeps looking worse. tough to imagine the nhc not slowly dropping down development chances. it looks pathetic right now.