ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

the GFS is notorious for breaking down ridges and has been pretty bad this year..IMO anything outside of GFS 120hr is highly suspect....JMO.....

[gatorcane]

With those models trends this thing might even stay north of PR.

I would like to see GFDL trend away from us after those two in a row runs of landfalls in PR.

The GFDL has had a left bias this season.

I am wondering if this system may just stay north of the Leewards and puerto Rico given the big shift in the models today to show a much weaker ridge.

[fci]

As expected the parade of trofs continues. Very hard for any cv storm to make the trek all the way across with no significant ridge to drive these storms westward.

yea, the models show fantsy ridges that evaporate. i sure hope next season this 3 year pattern reverses.

Well, I have seen a couple of posts now where you seem to be showing disappointment in the pattern of recurves with storms not hitting the CONUS.

Can you explain?

[gatorcane]

It's looking good this evening, could see a bump in the nhc probability of development next advisory

[cycloneye]

This has trouble written all over it. It's difficult to imagine that we may have two hurricanes over Puerto Rico in the same season.

I also have a bad feeling about this one. Can you imagine if that occurs after we endured the Irene landfall? But history shows that PR has been thru more than one landfall on a season in the 1800's.

Oh I'm sure it's happened before Luis. But the timing would be lousy right now. Not that there is a "good" time for two storms to make landfall on the same location during one season.

I found the three systems that made landfall in Puerto Rico in a season.

SANTA ANA- 26 of July 1530 (Hurricane)

SAN HIPOLITO- 22 of August 1530 (Tropical Storm)

SAN RAMON- 31 of August 1530 (Hurricane)

[rainstorm]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e

it does appear to have some banding features.

[ConvergenceZone]

As expected the parade of trofs continues. Very hard for any cv storm to make the trek all the way across with no significant ridge to drive these storms westward.

yea, the models show fantsy ridges that evaporate. i sure hope next season this 3 year pattern reverses.

Well, I have seen a couple of posts now where you seem to be showing disappointment in the pattern of recurves with storms not hitting the CONUS.

Can you explain?

I don't think rainstorm means anything bad by it. I liken it to the same way a tornado chaser(think the movie twister) loves and gets excited about a tornado touching down even though, even though he doesn't know where that tornado it going to touch down....(just my opinion).....

on a side note: I can't wait to move to Florida after I retire. The weather here in California is the most boring in the world, and for a weather extremist like myself, it's not a good match.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I agree with ConvergenceZone. Some of us here like the excitement severe weather, in this case, a hurricane brings. I believe there is nothing wrong with that.

[lonelymike]

If that model is correct, so much for that bogus info that the NHC said a couple of days ago regarding a pattern change so that any storm forming during the next 7 to 10 days would continue westward and NOT recurve out to sea like they've been doing... I guess they didn't know what they were talking about....

Dude.... A bit harsh no???

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z Surface Analysis

[meriland23]

I know this is way far out and has not even formed yet. But like over a week ago, it was pretty well known that there was going to be a clear curve with katia and nothing has changed. What (so far) does this track look like it could be with invest if it turns into 'Maria'? Also, what might be the upcoming temps/shear that could either interfere, or encourage her strengthening?

[meriland23]

00z Tropical Models. For the first time SHIP makes 95L a hurricane.

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 060057
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0057 UTC TUE SEP 6 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110906 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110906  0000   110906  1200   110907  0000   110907  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.0N  31.4W   10.5N  34.2W   11.3N  37.6W   12.7N  41.6W
BAMD    10.0N  31.4W   10.7N  33.5W   11.8N  36.0W   13.1N  38.9W
BAMM    10.0N  31.4W   10.9N  33.7W   12.1N  36.5W   13.5N  39.7W
LBAR    10.0N  31.4W   10.6N  33.3W   11.3N  35.8W   11.9N  38.8W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110908  0000   110909  0000   110910  0000   110911  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.3N  46.1W   16.9N  54.9W   18.7N  62.2W   20.2N  67.6W
BAMD    14.7N  42.0W   17.2N  47.3W   19.2N  50.7W   19.5N  52.6W
BAMM    15.1N  43.2W   17.8N  50.2W   20.3N  56.5W   23.1N  61.4W
LBAR    12.7N  41.9W   14.1N  48.2W   16.2N  53.0W   12.9N  54.3W
SHIP        49KTS          54KTS          58KTS          66KTS
DSHP        49KTS          54KTS          58KTS          66KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.0N LONCUR =  31.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =   9.8N LONM12 =  30.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =   9.5N LONM24 =  28.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/2686/storm95.gif

Saved image.

Another re-curve? Are you for cereal?

[meriland23]

Just read this about invest 95l on wordpress


This is a system that definitely will need to be watched closely as a ridge of high pressure will strengthen as Katia pulls to the north and northeast later this week. This would mean that 95L would likely remain on a general westward track right into the Caribbean by the weekend.

[meriland23]

Does anyone have a inkling towards whether this is likely to become a major or minor hurricane?

[Macrocane]

I say no major hurricane before the Lesser Antilles, could become a major later especially if it doesn't interact with land. This is an unofficial and non professional opinion.

[Sanibel]

The Bermuda High doesn't seem too strong this year. This should trend towards recurvature.


Pot-shot amateur opinion

[ConvergenceZone]

If that model is correct, so much for that bogus info that the NHC said a couple of days ago regarding a pattern change so that any storm forming during the next 7 to 10 days would continue westward and NOT recurve out to sea like they've been doing... I guess they didn't know what they were talking about....

Dude.... A bit harsh no???

I explained the reasoning to my comment in another post....It's because It was such an "absolute" the way it was written, and not written as just a "possibility"

Anyway, back to invest 95

[maxintensity]

so far ridging is weaker than 18z run and also 95l is north through 96 hours.

[SouthFloridawx]

Definitely looking different out there in the Atlantic than a few days ago...

[SouthFloridawx]

Just read this about invest 95l on wordpress
This is a system that definitely will need to be watched closely as a ridge of high pressure will strengthen as Katia pulls to the north and northeast later this week. This would mean that 95L would likely remain on a general westward track right into the Caribbean by the weekend.

Is this the one that the models were depicting a few days ago, behind Katia? I was kind of figuring we would have to watch out for anything potentially developing behind Katia.