ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Ivanhater]

Riding up the west coast of Florida

[Sanibel]

Basin still showing weak support for development like Don. But that can change overnight at this time of year. Especially if 91L heads up towards Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

Lookout South FL and Keys!

According to that model graphic it looks like S.FL and the Keys would only need to worry about a weak looking system.

I wouldn't bank on the intensity at this point this far out. From the synoptics and weak high pressure aloft would expect a deeper storm.

[RL3AO]

339
URNT15 KNHC 011626
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 02 20110801
161600 1704N 06315W 5274 05463 0284 -028 -104 085019 019 /// /// 03
161630 1703N 06313W 5278 05457 0283 -026 -105 083020 021 /// /// 03
161700 1702N 06311W 5275 05455 0282 -030 -106 084019 020 /// /// 03
161730 1701N 06309W 5275 05458 0282 -028 -107 082018 018 /// /// 03
161800 1700N 06307W 5275 05459 0283 -025 -108 083016 017 /// /// 03
161830 1659N 06304W 5278 05455 0284 -025 -109 086016 017 /// /// 03
161900 1658N 06302W 5274 05463 0284 -029 -110 082020 021 /// /// 03
161930 1657N 06300W 5277 05455 0284 -030 -111 078020 020 /// /// 03
162000 1656N 06258W 5279 05453 0283 -030 -112 079019 020 /// /// 03
162030 1655N 06255W 5275 05459 0282 -030 -113 080018 018 /// /// 03
162100 1654N 06253W 5278 05458 0282 -030 -115 080018 018 /// /// 03
162130 1653N 06251W 5275 05455 0282 -030 -117 079018 019 /// /// 03
162200 1652N 06249W 5277 05456 0282 -030 -118 083019 019 /// /// 03
162230 1651N 06247W 5278 05456 0281 -030 -119 081019 020 /// /// 03
162300 1650N 06245W 5275 05459 0281 -030 -120 083019 019 /// /// 03
162330 1649N 06242W 5277 05459 0281 -030 -121 085017 018 /// /// 03
162400 1648N 06240W 5276 05454 0282 -030 -122 085016 017 /// /// 03
162430 1647N 06238W 5278 05456 0281 -030 -123 085017 017 026 000 03
162500 1646N 06236W 5275 05451 0279 -030 -123 085018 018 025 001 00
162530 1645N 06234W 5276 05456 0280 -030 -124 086018 018 027 000 00
$$
;

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like at 162 hrs it wants to take the Low back into the Atlantic just south of Jax.

[petit_bois]

Lookout South FL and Keys!

According to that model graphic it looks like S.FL and the Keys would only need to worry about a weak looking system.

I wouldn't bank on the intensity at this point this far out. From the synoptics and weak high pressure aloft would expect a deeper storm.

Nor would I bank on location in 5 days based on models.
We still don't have a "storm"

[JPmia]

looks like it will ride up the east coast on this GFS run

[ConvergenceZone]

Best rotation I'm seeing now is approaching 60W near 15N. Surface obs do NOT indicate an LLC there, though. Very weak low southwest of the convection appears to have dissipated. Conditions don't look good for any rapid development. Looking less like a hurricane threat in the Caribbean. It may not even develop an LLC.

Wow, so this Invest might not even develop at all? I know I said that earlier, but I was just kidding , but to hear it from you WXMAN means quite a bit....

[Aric Dunn]

sw motion... ?

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry but this far out with the GFS or any model I wouldn't get that too concerned just yet if I lived in FLorida or anywhere else. IMO

[SouthDadeFish]

Although landfall in Florida is over 5 days out, what concerns me about the GFS is it shows a shallower trough and stronger ridge in a much more believable (closer) time frame.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
IMO

[Aric Dunn]

the mid level gets ripped off moves SW

..

[KWT]

Another landfall near Florida, system probably wouldn't be *too strong* given the disruption by Hispaniola but the upper pattern does look good...obviously also dependant on the status of the system as well before land.

I think there is STILL more westward adjustments to come...

[ConvergenceZone]

Best rotation I'm seeing now is approaching 60W near 15N. Surface obs do NOT indicate an LLC there, though. Very weak low southwest of the convection appears to have dissipated. Conditions don't look good for any rapid development. Looking less like a hurricane threat in the Caribbean. It may not even develop an LLC.

This system has been for sure a very interesting one to study in many aspects especially,how slow things evolve in systems that are in the Tropical Atlantic. Will this be the pattern for the rest of the season? Ok that is for a topic at Talking Tropics. When it started as a invest,it looked omminous,how the models had the intensity as a cat 1 where it is now.But all is now good for the Lesser Antilles islands,only showers and some winds,but compared to what it was on the tables 3 days ago,is nothing.

I agree, I'm very happy for the islands this morning. Could be some heavy rain though and a bit of flooding depending
upon where the convection passes over. But this is huge good news compared to what we were talking about over the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Blown Away,here is a closeup.

[SouthDadeFish]

The fact that the NHC sent another plane into this feature right after another one left leads me to believe this storm isn't as disorganized as some people here think.... They kept it at 90% for a reason.

[SunnyThoughts]

NHC has been offering up this 70%, 80%, near 100% chances now for how many days in a row? Now it may never develop? Wow, just wow. Guess it just goes to show the tropics are hard to predict, even sometimes for the professionals at the NHC.

[NDG]

@15.5N/59.5W, convection building on the E side. IMO this area will work down to the surface.

Yeap, I agree with you, especially that Barbados is now reporting south winds.

[otowntiger]

[quote="cycloneye"]:uarrow: Blown Away,here is a closeup.

Looks less and less impressive. It seems to be drying up.