ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

No mention of NAM at 10 PM CDT discussion.

But they're probably still laughing about it, though.

[psyclone]

moving looks SW to me....and the LLC is partially offshore....

do you think it has time to strengthen

No way! It's expanding and losing tropical characteristics while sucking in a ton of dry air from Texas.

one big issue i see for the storm is it is cutting off its supply of moisture as dry air is creating a moat around the center, denying the storm the rich southerly inflow it had access to last night. that deep moisture plume is now farther east. it's not surprising that's is where the most vigorous convection resides as well. Lee is effectively surrounded by the texas desert. in the meantime that front is approaching from the northwest. i think the core of lee will continue to degrade.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

No real surprise. Probably waiting on tonights runs to see if others(GFS,euro) join in.

[underthwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.UPDATE...
STRONG SUSTAINED COASTAL WINDS OF BETWEEN 20 TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL
HAVE AN ONGOING WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM LEE HAS UNDERGONE LITTLE CHANGE THIS EVENING ...POSSIBLE SLIGHT
WEAKENING AND A MINOR SOUTHWESTERLY JOG OFF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COASTLINE. REGION FALLING UNDER THE FAR PERIPHERY OF LEE`S LATEST
WEST-OF-CENTER CONVECTIVE BURST. EXPECTING JUST PRIMARILY EASTERN
CWA LOW QPF -SHRA THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL HOURS...WITH THE BETTER-
BEHAVED ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS WOBBLING HIGHER FUTURE VORTICITY
OFFSHORE...OR ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND LEE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TIGHT BACKSIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE REFORTIFIED BY
A PASSING CF BOUNDARY LATER SUNDAY. AS NEAR-50 KNOT WINDS AT
AROUND 4-6 K FT MIX DOWN AS SURFACE WARMS...IT APPEARS THAT A
REPEAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TO ACCOMPANY SUNDAY`S RED FLAG
WARNING.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[3090]

What will be really interesting is to see if the west side moisture wraps all around the core and we see some re-intensification/organization. Lee really has never had west side banding, due to dry air over Texas filtering in. It appears that has substantially relaxed along with the shear. If Lee moves far away offshore and the new found west side banding wraps all the way around, things could get interesting.

[ROCK]

I don't know where the crow is coming from. A number of models two days ago predicted a loop as being possible. Go back and look. The real southward movement however, was no where. I don't think a real south movement is going to happen. I do think the loop may be starting, with an eventual turn to the ENE/NE as the eventual final movement towards the mid coast of LA.

right, the models showed this 2 days ago...however that was 2 days ago and now a few models are showing the same thing. More guidance coming into night so lets see wht they have to say....

The NAM is a good model for the CONUS and many NWS forecasters rely on it....it totally misses the trof on the NAM and GFDL recent runs...

I don't understand the where eating crow comes from. The NHC goes with their professional opinion based on a lot of dynamics, not just models. So how does eating crow come into it? This isn't over yet, until it makes an offiical landfall and is done as far as a tropical system goes. Of course things can and do change unexpectedly, BUT Lee is doing pretty much spot on as to the forecast. Can the forecast change? Certainly. But let's see what happens. There is no eating crow.

LEE is not spot on...really? look at a sat view and click on forecast points.....she is way west and south....I dont think eating crow has anything to do with it. It would just be a busted forecast....like today here in Houston...20% of rain...bumped to 50% for tonight in one forecast...that is a bust....

[SoupBone]

What will be really interesting is to see if the west side moisture wraps all around the core and we see some re-intensification/organization. Lee really has never had west side banding, due to dry air over Texas filtering in. It appears that has substantially relaxed along with the shear. If Lee moves far away offshore and the new found west side banding wraps all the way around, things could get interesting.

I respectfully disagree. He hasn't looked worse than he is right now. He's still snacking on the dry air like little debbie snack cakes.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Or mine... supposed to have some of the worst weather tonight with gusts up to 70mph and upwards of 4in of rain. All we are getting is a little breeze and a few passing light showers. Radar is almost clear down to coast. Can even see peaks of moon at times. Now that is a bust!

[Jagno]

Jagno, its between Grand Lake and Vermillion Bay, close to the coast.

Now I know exactly where you are talking about. Unfortunately, I'm not very far from Grand Lake.

[Ptarmigan]

LEE is not spot on...really? look at a sat view and click on forecast points.....she is way west and south....I dont think eating crow has anything to do with it. It would just be a busted forecast....like today here in Houston...20% of rain...bumped to 50% for tonight in one forecast...that is a bust....

The more bust it is, the better for Texas. Lee is a male's name. Hurricane names go male, female, male, and so on.

[3090]

What will be really interesting is to see if the west side moisture wraps all around the core and we see some re-intensification/organization. Lee really has never had west side banding, due to dry air over Texas filtering in. It appears that has substantially relaxed along with the shear. If Lee moves far away offshore and the new found west side banding wraps all the way around, things could get interesting.

I respectfully disagree. He hasn't looked worse than he is right now. He's still snacking on the dry air like little debbie snack cakes.

Like I said, Lee has NEVER had BANDING on his west side, until now. I didn't say he looked better either. Yes he looks as bad as he ever has, I agree. But you cannot disagree with the west side banding, dry air and shear, which have all improved. In the end, he is still too close to land and the dry air is still present, but not as bad as it has been. Look at the radar images and see the thunderstorm activity picking up on the west side and wrapping around the so called center. This is really the first time I have seen that with Lee.

[Rgv20]

0z Shallow BAM drastically change its track too...Takes lee South until GOM.

The NAM, 18zGFDL,0zBAMS are more than likely wrong....but it makes one wonder.....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Jagno, its between Grand Lake and Vermillion Bay, close to the coast.

Now I know exactly where you are talking about. Unfortunately, I'm not very far from Grand Lake.

Don't feel bad. Where I fish in Hopedale I couldn't name half the waterways out there

[tigergirl]

No mention of NAM at 10 PM CDT discussion.

But they're probably still laughing about it, though.

You asked for rain and I delivered..all the way from Larose! The only thing is you didn't specify how much!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

0z Shallow BAM drastically change its track too...Takes lee South until GOM.

The NAM, 18zGFDL,0zBAMS are more than likely wrong....but it makes one wonder.....

I don't know RGV. NAM seems to have Lee nailed so far. Until he makes that definite NE movement could be right. Making things very interesting for sure though.

[bella_may]

Been such a nasty day at my house. 9 inches already reported and I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing go back into the gulf and then go northeast

[imetrice]

Local met here (Tom Konvicka, KALB Alexandria) says that he thinks Lee will travel a bit more west and east before it makes that NE turn.

[Stormcenter]

I'll stick with the NHC on this one. If they say he's eventually headed NE then I buy it. JMHO

[Jagno]

Local met here (Tom Konvicka, KALB Alexandria) says that he thinks Lee will travel a bit more west and east before it makes that NE turn.

Hmmmmm???

[imetrice]

Sorry... I meant west and north...before turning northeast