ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

In the last few frames of the vis sat loop as if a new larger circulation is forming much closer to the deep convection.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231634
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 06 20111023
162430 2657N 08835W 3761 07943 0326 -250 -277 265053 053 022 000 00
162500 2655N 08833W 3762 07943 0327 -249 -278 267053 054 022 000 00
162530 2653N 08832W 3762 07943 0327 -249 -278 267053 053 022 001 00
162600 2650N 08831W 3761 07946 0328 -248 -278 265054 055 023 000 00
162630 2648N 08830W 3761 07946 0329 -245 -278 264055 055 023 000 00
162700 2645N 08829W 3761 07947 0329 -245 -278 263055 055 025 000 00
162730 2643N 08828W 3761 07946 0329 -246 -278 264055 056 026 000 00
162800 2641N 08827W 3761 07948 0331 -247 -278 264056 057 026 000 00
162830 2638N 08825W 3761 07948 0332 -250 -277 264057 057 026 000 00
162900 2636N 08824W 3761 07950 0333 -246 -273 262057 058 026 000 00
162930 2633N 08823W 3762 07949 0335 -246 -270 263057 057 026 000 00
163000 2631N 08822W 3762 07952 0336 -249 -267 264057 057 026 001 00
163030 2629N 08821W 3762 07953 0337 -248 -266 264057 057 027 000 00
163100 2626N 08820W 3762 07954 0337 -245 -265 263056 057 027 000 00
163130 2624N 08818W 3762 07953 0337 -245 -262 263057 057 027 000 00
163200 2621N 08817W 3762 07953 0337 -245 -262 263057 057 029 000 00
163230 2619N 08816W 3762 07955 0339 -246 -261 263056 058 028 000 00
163300 2616N 08815W 3762 07954 0339 -245 -260 263055 055 029 000 00
163330 2614N 08814W 3761 07956 0339 -245 -260 263055 056 028 000 00
163400 2611N 08813W 3762 07955 0339 -245 -259 264055 056 028 000 00

[CrazyC83]

60 kt or so shear at the upper levels in the central Gulf. If it heads there it would be torn to shreds.

[CrazyC83]

Could the front stalling cause this to become an extratropical monster?

[cycloneye]

Could the front stalling cause this to become an extratropical monster?

Moved your post from models thread to here.

Well,let's take one step at a time. Let's see first what occurs in the Western Caribbean with track and intensity and then let's see later what interaction the front may have.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone wants to post the google graphics for this mission?

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231644
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 07 20111023
163430 2609N 08812W 3762 07956 0340 -249 -259 265055 056 027 001 00
163500 2606N 08810W 3761 07957 0341 -249 -258 265055 055 026 000 00
163530 2604N 08809W 3762 07957 0342 -245 -257 263054 054 026 000 00
163600 2602N 08808W 3762 07959 0343 -245 -257 263053 053 025 000 00
163630 2559N 08807W 3762 07959 0344 -245 -258 265052 052 025 000 00
163700 2557N 08806W 3762 07962 0347 -245 -257 265053 053 026 000 00
163730 2554N 08805W 3761 07967 0350 -245 -257 264054 054 025 000 00
163800 2552N 08804W 3762 07967 0352 -246 -258 265054 054 023 000 03
163830 2549N 08802W 3761 07969 0353 -250 -257 267055 055 /// /// 03
163900 2547N 08801W 3762 07968 0353 -247 -258 268054 055 /// /// 03
163930 2544N 08800W 3761 07971 0354 -246 -259 268053 053 /// /// 03
164000 2542N 08759W 3762 07969 0354 -245 -259 267052 053 /// /// 03
164030 2540N 08758W 3761 07971 0354 -247 -259 266051 051 /// /// 03
164100 2537N 08757W 3762 07969 0355 -250 -259 267050 050 /// /// 03
164130 2535N 08755W 3762 07972 0356 -250 -260 268049 049 /// /// 03
164200 2532N 08754W 3762 07972 0357 -248 -261 268048 049 /// /// 03
164230 2530N 08753W 3761 07973 0356 -245 -262 266048 048 /// /// 03
164300 2527N 08752W 3763 07968 0356 -245 -264 266047 047 /// /// 03
164330 2525N 08751W 3762 07972 0356 -245 -266 266047 047 /// /// 03
164400 2522N 08750W 3762 07970 0356 -245 -268 266046 047 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

Observation Time: Sunday, 16:42Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 25.5N 87.9W
Location: 336 miles (541 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,620 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 270° at 48 knots (From the W at ~ 55.2 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -25°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -26°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,520 geopotential meters

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231654
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 08 20111023
164430 2520N 08749W 3762 07972 0356 -245 -270 267045 045 /// /// 03
164500 2517N 08747W 3761 07973 0356 -245 -271 268045 045 /// /// 03
164530 2515N 08746W 3762 07973 0358 -245 -272 270045 046 /// /// 03
164600 2512N 08745W 3761 07976 0359 -241 -274 268045 045 /// /// 03
164630 2510N 08744W 3762 07975 0361 -240 -275 269045 046 /// /// 03
164700 2507N 08743W 3762 07977 0362 -240 -277 269045 045 /// /// 03
164730 2505N 08742W 3762 07979 0362 -240 -279 269044 045 /// /// 03
164800 2503N 08741W 3761 07979 0363 -240 -279 269045 045 /// /// 03
164830 2500N 08739W 3762 07979 0364 -240 -280 270045 045 /// /// 03
164900 2458N 08738W 3762 07979 0364 -239 -282 271046 046 /// /// 03
164930 2455N 08737W 3762 07979 0363 -237 -282 271046 046 /// /// 03
165000 2453N 08736W 3762 07977 0362 -237 -282 269045 046 /// /// 03
165030 2450N 08735W 3762 07979 0362 -235 -283 267045 045 /// /// 03
165100 2448N 08734W 3762 07979 0363 -235 -286 268044 044 /// /// 03
165130 2445N 08733W 3762 07977 0363 -235 -287 268043 043 /// /// 03
165200 2443N 08731W 3762 07978 0363 -235 -288 268043 043 /// /// 03
165230 2440N 08730W 3762 07978 0363 -235 -290 269042 042 /// /// 03
165300 2438N 08729W 3762 07981 0365 -235 -292 267041 041 /// /// 03
165330 2435N 08728W 3762 07981 0366 -235 -293 267041 041 /// /// 03
165400 2433N 08727W 3762 07981 0366 -235 -294 268040 040 /// /// 03

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231704
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 09 20111023
165430 2430N 08726W 3762 07982 0367 -237 -295 270039 040 /// /// 03
165500 2428N 08725W 3761 07984 0368 -235 -297 268039 039 /// /// 03
165530 2425N 08724W 3761 07986 0369 -235 -297 268038 038 /// /// 03
165600 2423N 08722W 3762 07984 0370 -235 -298 268038 038 /// /// 03
165630 2421N 08721W 3762 07987 0371 -235 -299 268037 037 /// /// 03
165700 2418N 08720W 3761 07989 0373 -235 -300 266036 036 /// /// 03
165730 2416N 08719W 3762 07989 0375 -235 -302 265035 035 /// /// 03
165800 2413N 08718W 3761 07993 0376 -235 -302 265035 035 /// /// 03
165830 2411N 08717W 3762 07992 0377 -235 -302 265034 034 /// /// 03
165900 2408N 08716W 3762 07994 0378 -235 -304 264034 034 /// /// 03
165930 2406N 08715W 3762 07994 0379 -233 -305 264034 034 /// /// 03
170000 2403N 08714W 3762 07994 0380 -234 -305 265033 033 /// /// 03
170030 2401N 08712W 3762 07995 0380 -233 -305 264033 033 /// /// 03
170100 2358N 08711W 3761 07996 0380 -232 -307 263032 033 /// /// 03
170130 2356N 08710W 3762 07994 0380 -230 -308 263032 032 /// /// 03
170200 2354N 08709W 3762 07995 0381 -230 -307 262031 031 /// /// 03
170230 2351N 08708W 3762 07996 0381 -230 -309 261030 030 /// /// 03
170300 2349N 08707W 3762 07996 0382 -230 -309 263029 029 /// /// 03
170330 2346N 08706W 3762 07999 0383 -230 -309 264028 029 /// /// 03
170400 2344N 08705W 3762 07999 0383 -230 -311 264028 028 /// /// 03

[cycloneye]

Who wants to continue the posting of the data as I have to go?

[NDG]

I'll help.

[cycloneye]

Wow,the 2:05 PM EDT Discussion came out well before the Tropical Weather Outlook.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 15N81W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS N OF THIS LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 81W-85W
TO INCLUDE NE NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA THROUGH
MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
PRESENTLY INBOUND TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE.

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 231714
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 10 20111023
170430 2341N 08704W 3762 07997 0383 -230 -311 263027 027 /// /// 03
170500 2339N 08703W 3761 07999 0382 -230 -311 262026 027 /// /// 03
170530 2337N 08701W 3762 07999 0384 -230 -312 262026 026 /// /// 03
170600 2334N 08700W 3762 08001 0385 -230 -314 262025 025 /// /// 03
170630 2332N 08659W 3761 08002 0387 -230 -314 261024 025 /// /// 03
170700 2329N 08658W 3762 08002 0387 -230 -314 260024 024 /// /// 03
170730 2327N 08657W 3762 08002 0387 -230 -315 261024 024 /// /// 03
170800 2324N 08656W 3762 08001 0387 -230 -315 263024 024 /// /// 03
170830 2322N 08655W 3762 08002 0387 -230 -315 266025 025 /// /// 03
170900 2320N 08654W 3762 08002 0387 -231 -316 267024 024 /// /// 03
170930 2317N 08653W 3761 08006 0389 -230 -318 261023 023 /// /// 03
171000 2315N 08652W 3762 08006 0390 -230 -318 258022 022 /// /// 03
171030 2312N 08651W 3762 08006 0390 -228 -318 255021 022 /// /// 03
171100 2310N 08649W 3763 08002 0390 -225 -318 255021 021 /// /// 03
171130 2308N 08648W 3762 08004 0391 -225 -319 254021 021 /// /// 03
171200 2305N 08647W 3762 08007 0392 -225 -319 252020 020 /// /// 03
171230 2303N 08646W 3762 08007 0392 -225 -319 252019 019 /// /// 03
171300 2300N 08645W 3763 08004 0391 -225 -320 253018 019 /// /// 03
171330 2258N 08644W 3762 08004 0390 -228 -320 254018 019 /// /// 03
171400 2255N 08643W 3759 08007 0388 -226 -322 253018 018 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Ptarmigan]

This is one strange system. %'s are all over the place.

Those percent chances of development are not objective - they're purely subjective. There is no formula for precisely calculating the chances of development within the next 48 hrs. Each forecaster is different in how he/she estimates development potential. Some tend to go lower, some higher (like Stewart). Mathematically, the chance of development within 48 hours is either 100% or 0% (a perfect forecast). Either it will develop or it won't within that time period. Any variance from a 0% or 100% prediction just reflects the forecaster's uncertainty.

They should just say low, moderate, and high chance.

[Ptarmigan]

'94 didn't have any named storms in Oct., but had 2 canes in November. 1 of the 2 was Gordon.

Hurricane Gordon was devastating for Haiti and it was not retired. Florence was the strongest hurricane for 1994. 1994 had no major hurricane due to El Nino. Moral of the story, hurricane season is not over until it is over.

[NDG]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231724
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 11 20111023
171430 2253N 08642W 3758 08008 0387 -225 -323 248017 017 /// /// 03
171500 2251N 08641W 3761 08006 0388 -225 -323 254017 017 /// /// 03
171530 2248N 08640W 3758 08012 0390 -225 -323 252016 016 /// /// 03
171600 2246N 08639W 3759 08010 0390 -225 -323 250015 015 /// /// 03
171630 2243N 08638W 3759 08010 0391 -225 -323 255015 016 /// /// 03
171700 2241N 08637W 3758 08014 0392 -225 -325 253014 015 /// /// 03
171730 2239N 08636W 3759 08013 0394 -225 -325 257014 014 /// /// 03
171800 2236N 08634W 3758 08016 0395 -225 -325 256015 015 /// /// 03
171830 2234N 08633W 3759 08014 0395 -225 -326 257014 015 /// /// 03
171900 2234N 08633W 3759 08014 0395 -225 -327 263015 015 /// /// 03
171930 2229N 08631W 3759 08014 0394 -225 -328 265015 015 /// /// 03
172000 2227N 08630W 3758 08017 0395 -225 -327 265015 015 /// /// 03
172030 2224N 08629W 3759 08013 0395 -225 -328 261014 014 /// /// 03
172100 2222N 08628W 3759 08014 0393 -225 -328 266014 014 /// /// 03
172130 2220N 08627W 3758 08013 0391 -224 -329 270014 014 /// /// 03
172200 2217N 08625W 3758 08012 0390 -225 -329 269014 014 /// /// 03
172230 2215N 08624W 3759 08008 0390 -223 -329 269013 014 /// /// 03
172300 2213N 08623W 3759 08012 0391 -220 -330 265013 013 /// /// 03
172330 2210N 08622W 3759 08012 0391 -220 -330 270014 014 /// /// 03
172400 2208N 08621W 3759 08010 0391 -220 -330 270013 013 /// /// 03
$$
;




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[NDG]

Recon has a good hour or more to go to get to 96L's COC.

[Evil Jeremy]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS BORDER
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY.

IMO, if only a "slight" organizational improvement is needed, I don't understand how this is at 60%. That wording has been used with 80% and 90% in the past. In fact, in the 8am TWO, they didn't say why they dropped the percentage down by 10.

[brunota2003]

Perhaps if the system organizes just slightly more, it could be classified as a TD...but the forecaster does not feel too confident that that slight increase will occur?

Hence:

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION