ATL: IRENE - Models

[ROCK]

Could SETX be at play here? I see how that ridge sure moved out of the way towards the west!

as of now the current guidance says NO....However you never say never when you are 240hrs out....

[caneseddy]

Here are the most recent EURO runs I could find

8/15 12z: 8/25 Bahamas
8/16 00z: 8/26 -Eastern Bahamas
8/16 12z: system dies over Hispaniola
8/17 00z: 8/28-intense hurricane off of SC/GA border
8/17 12z: shredded over Hispaniola and heads into NW Caribbean as a weak low
8/18 00z: 8/26-off of East coast of Florida and 8/27 landfall in SC
8/18 12z: 8/28: intense hurricane in the Central Gulf after going over Hispaniola

[otowntiger]

all the models appear keen on turning the storm NNW beteen 79-82 West where that takes place will be critical......IMO, i dont see this missing the US...

yeah.. and we are located at around 80W...

It seems that this system has all the earmarks of one that will make it far enough west to impact a large land mass and even the CONUS the bigger question will be (as it almost always is) what kind of intensity will it have? If we think track is impossible to accurately predict this far out then intensity is purely a "w.a.g." This system can follow some of the doomsday tracks but if its just an open wave when it gets there we'll have nothing to worry about.

[Ivanhater]

Here are the most recent EURO runs I could find

8/15 12z: 8/25 Bahamas
8/16 00z: 8/26 -Eastern Bahamas
8/16 12z: system dies over Hispaniola
8/17 00z: 8/28-intense hurricane off of SC/GA border
8/17 12z: shredded over Hispaniola and heads into NW Caribbean as a weak low
8/18 00z: 8/26-off of East coast of Florida and 8/27 landfall in SC
8/18 12z: 8/28: intense hurricane in the Central Gulf after going over Hispaniola

Awesome job. Now we can update both the GFS and Euro and see the consistency or lack there of.

[ROCK]

really not a good sample data to do a comparision.....the GFS extends beyond the range of the EURO....

[Ivanhater]

really not a good sample data to do a comparision.....the GFS extends beyond the range of the EURO....

And yet for this storm, has been even more consistent than the Euro.

[caneseddy]

12z NOGAPS has 97L going north of the islands and ending up in the SE Bahamas

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... sLoop.html

[Countrygirl911]

ok looking at the models and correct me if i am wrong i am still new to this and i am still learning it is showing the ridge that is over TX to weaken and move to the west giving this system a better chance of making land fall on the coast around LA and MS and if this senario happens then it is looking close to making land fall 6 years after katrina very close to the same date if not the same date but if the ridge does not retreat to the west we are looming at maybe more of a florida land fall. and what strenth of a hurrican would be with a 922 MB Pressure. again please correct me if i am wrong i am still trying to learn.

[chaser1]

Did I simply "blink" and miss it?? Where were the GFDL and HWRF models?? I see the 12 run for the other systems have already come out, but for some reason.... no love for 97L.

[Blown Away]

IMO, the W EURO runs are due to Hispaniola shallowing the circulation and getting pushed more W by tradewinds and once in the SE GOM it deepens again feels weakness in the upper levels and gets tugged N. If 97L stays N of Hispaniola it's a SFL or Carolinas issue if through or S of Hispaniola it's and GOM issue.

[somethingfunny]

Up until now I'd have said SETX isn't in play because the Florida solution has been SO consistent. But now with this west trend (and the logic that a storm which plows into Hispaniola and shreds itself up would go with the low-level flow, westward, to the south of Cuba until it restrengthens - first alluded to by yesterday's 12z Euro) I really wouldn't keep anything out of play yet. Yesterday's 12z Euro had a redeveloping cyclone in the NW Gulf and a weakness over Texas at 240hr.

The exact initiation point of the LLC, the track regarding Hispaniola, the speed of re-intensification if it hits Hispaniola/Cuba, and the timing of the trough are all huge variables still at this time. It's funny how all this week it seemed like the agreement was so remarkable that we could narrow the cone from Apalachicola to Wilmington at 11 days out, and now at 10 days out the cone has re-widened to include Texas-Maine.

IF it is a hurricane by the time it reaches Hispaniola and/or Cuba, and IF it misses those islands and gets north of them unimpeded, I'd say the Gulf is still out of play anywhere west of Apalachicola.

[SouthFLTropics]

IMO, the W EURO runs are due to Hispaniola shallowing the circulation and getting pushed more W by tradewinds and once in the SE GOM it deepens again feels weakness in the upper levels and gets tugged N. If 97L stays N of Hispaniola it's a SFL or Carolinas issue if through or S of Hispaniola it's and GOM issue.

To add to that I think that it is a good possibility that if it stays South of the big islands then it is a Florida issue as well because it won't weaken and will feel the tug to the North. Bottom line, if it hits the islands it's into the Gulf. If it doesn't then it heads North sooner.

SFT

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF Ensembles

GOM is wide open.

[HurrMark]

A bit off topic, but I think this is the first time I recall the model thread for an invest/cyclone being so much bigger than the discussion thread...I can just imagine the reaction if this goes poof or recurves or is just another weak TS...

[KWT]

Very broad range of options from the ECM ensembles!

One or two even manage to recurve!

HurrMark, once/if it does develop, the main thread will race ahead...always does!

[cycloneye]

Very broad range of options from the ECM ensembles!

One or two even manage to recurve!

HurrMark, once/if it does develop, the main thread will race ahead...always does!

The models thread for 93L went well ahead of the discussion thread,but look now.

[South Texas Storms]

Up until now I'd have said SETX isn't in play because the Florida solution has been SO consistent. But now with this west trend (and the logic that a storm which plows into Hispaniola and shreds itself up would go with the low-level flow, westward, to the south of Cuba until it restrengthens - first alluded to by yesterday's 12z Euro) I really wouldn't keep anything out of play yet. Yesterday's 12z Euro had a redeveloping cyclone in the NW Gulf and a weakness over Texas at 240hr.

The exact initiation point of the LLC, the track regarding Hispaniola, the speed of re-intensification if it hits Hispaniola/Cuba, and the timing of the trough are all huge variables still at this time. It's funny how all this week it seemed like the agreement was so remarkable that we could narrow the cone from Apalachicola to Wilmington at 11 days out, and now at 10 days out the cone has re-widened to include Texas-Maine.

IF it is a hurricane by the time it reaches Hispaniola and/or Cuba, and IF it misses those islands and gets north of them unimpeded, I'd say the Gulf is still out of play anywhere west of Apalachicola.

Good post sf. I completely agree with you. I'm eager to see if the west trend continues on the Euro with tonight's 0z run. There sure are going to be many late night model wars in the next week.

[chaser1]

Yep, the Gulf may well be wide open. I think however, that assuming development..., that 97L is gonna be a "Kahunna"! Most larger envelope type systems seems to have a pretty much straight and narrow path of motion, often ignoring and kicking out small cut-off lows, and less impacted by smaller steering mechanisms. The BAMD may be more or less right on, and depending on of course "where" this thing will really be initiated ( at what latitude ), may well dictate if this plows into South Florida and straight on through to N. Texas, or much farther north and straight into N. Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas!

[ConvergenceZone]

Very broad range of options from the ECM ensembles!

One or two even manage to recurve!

HurrMark, once/if it does develop, the main thread will race ahead...always does!

Recurve???
silly model....
This would have to start to strengthen incredibly fast for that to even be a remote possibility....

[Ivanhater]

Very interesting 12z Euro Ensembles...many more are bringing it into the Gulf. Should see more Gulf solutions over the next day or two.