ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

#261 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:27 pm

Looking good!

#262 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:30 pm

SunnyThoughts · #263 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:31 pm

WOW...looking better by the hour! I don't think we'll make it through this weekend without at least a TD, maybe even Don.

CourierPR · #264 Postby **CourierPR** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:35 pm

It may already be at TD status.

KatDaddy · #265 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:36 pm

Great outflow. No doubt will be the next 2011 TD.

TwisterFanatic · #266 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:36 pm

That's a nice satellite presentation for this early in the development stage.

#267 Postby **Downdraft** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:37 pm

[quote="ROCK"]

one thing I observed down in SoFlo yesterday for work is that you guys sure build some big hotels right on the beach. Surely those have been built to withstand Cat5 intensity?.....

I don't think anything anywhere on the Florida coast was built to withstand CAT5 intensity.

#268 Postby **Blown Away** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:37 pm

Looking like 90L is crossing 15N.

#269 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:38 pm

The question is,what will occur once it enters the so called "Zone of death" in the Eastern Caribbean.

stormreader · #270 Postby **stormreader** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:39 pm

Well most of us here know the pattern. Cyclogenesis tends to occur in the extreme E Carrib (if not, it is often delayed until the system passes Jamaica). Just a general rule of thumb, not anything that can always be pinned down. The system is looking healthier in the upper levels. The shear seems to be centered more to the north and east. Wonder if we'll see a red circle up sometime tomorrow morning??

#271 Postby **Rgv20** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:54 pm

Looking at the long range GFS&ECMWF Ensembles the ridge is forecast to be strong thus my interest level of 90l is rather high right now. Looking at forecast 500mb 6-10 day mean it looks like 90l may be a player for the western gulf coast by next weekend.

12zGFS Ensembles

12zECMWF Ensembles

Of course things can change drastically when we are talking about long range forecast but just stating my opinion on what I see in the forecast of the overall pattern.

ROCK · #272 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:57 pm

I agree with the banding feature beginning to take shape. Looks good but still a ways to go to get a LLC....

convection is all over the place and waning attm. I am not sure what you mean about crossing 15N...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

#273 Postby **fci** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:59 pm

Downdraft wrote:
ROCK wrote:
one thing I observed down in SoFlo yesterday for work is that you guys sure build some big hotels right on the beach. Surely those have been built to withstand Cat5 intensity?.....

I don't think anything anywhere on the Florida coast was built to withstand CAT5 intensity.

Good point about buildings withstanding Cat 5. Not sure if many anywhere can do that!
I live down here in So. Fla and made an infrequent trip to South Beach yesterday with an out of town visitor and can attest to the scenery too.

#274 Postby **Rgv20** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:04 pm

90l should keep moving west in the short term based on the latest steering chart.

#275 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:31 pm

Looks like the center of future TD or DON is passing between St. Lucia and Martinique. I'll put it at 60% in the morning, just my guess!

#276 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Michael,notice the track of TVCN,a very interesting one for sure.

Luis the TVCN graphic is the same for the 18z & 00z? Curious why you think it's interesting? I do understand the NHC likes to follow the TVCN blend.

Almost the same. Is interesting as it tracks South of Cuba after going thru the SW part of Hispanola.Of course,nothing is in stone as we dont have yet a bonifide LLC.

There wouldn't be much left of any system taking the TVCN track after it goes through Hispaniola as shown. That is where some of the highest mountains on the island are. At a minimum it would be hugely disrupted.

#277 Postby **MGC** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:35 pm

With 90L about to pass through the islands we should find out if there is a surface circulation. I doubt one is established yet....but I could be wrong. 90L continues to become better organized and the most concentrated area of convection does appear to be located just south of 15N. Yep, us in the GOM area are going to have to keep an eye on this one.....MGC

lebron23 · #278 Postby **lebron23** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:46 pm

With this system developing so quickly i assume it puts the central gulf coast/ florida at risk a lot more than texas or mexico?

#279 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:53 pm

lebron23 wrote:With this system developing so quickly i assume it puts the central gulf coast/ florida at risk a lot more than texas or mexico?

I'd say let's see what the models say once they get some data from the Gulfstream plane that I guess will be flown out there in a day or 2. Till then anyone from CA to NC/east coast and most of the Caribbean ilses.

ROCK · #280 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:55 pm

convection diminishing even further...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

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