ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Dave]

787
URNT15 KNHC 281507
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 31 20110728
145800 2433N 08844W 8433 01585 0126 +165 +049 142042 043 034 001 00
145830 2435N 08845W 8430 01588 0126 +165 +051 142042 043 033 000 00
145900 2437N 08845W 8434 01582 0127 +165 +054 142042 043 033 000 03
145930 2439N 08845W 8428 01590 0130 +159 +056 142040 041 036 001 03
150000 2440N 08845W 8433 01585 0132 +155 +055 143043 044 036 003 00
150030 2442N 08846W 8432 01587 0128 +164 +051 142042 045 035 001 00
150100 2444N 08846W 8430 01589 0129 +164 +049 138044 046 036 001 00
150130 2444N 08846W 8430 01589 0128 +164 +050 138043 045 036 000 00
150200 2448N 08846W 8429 01588 0126 +166 +052 139045 045 037 001 00
150230 2450N 08847W 8417 01602 0128 +165 +056 137045 047 036 002 03
150300 2452N 08847W 8425 01590 0125 +165 +060 140045 045 037 000 00
150330 2454N 08847W 8430 01589 0128 +165 +064 141045 046 034 000 00
150400 2456N 08848W 8433 01584 0127 +164 +066 143047 048 037 003 00
150430 2458N 08848W 8429 01587 0136 +149 +064 146049 051 037 021 03
150500 2500N 08848W 8412 01616 0143 +151 +055 142038 039 051 014 03
150530 2501N 08848W 8435 01581 0129 +163 +045 140041 042 038 001 00
150600 2503N 08849W 8431 01590 0130 +168 +039 140041 042 034 001 03
150630 2505N 08849W 8413 01615 0136 +164 +039 141043 045 035 001 00
150700 2507N 08849W 8429 01591 0131 +165 +041 140044 045 034 001 03
150730 2509N 08849W 8431 01593 0132 +168 +044 140044 045 035 000 03
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

SHIPS has really changed its tune since yesterday in terms of wind shear. If the SHIPS forecast verifies I have a hard time seeing Don getting any stronger than he already is. He'll become one of those typical bursting pattern tropical storms. The center is exposed then three hours later another burst, then exposed again, etc. This is just my opinion of course.

[KWT]

Offical forecast shifted northwards in reflection of the somewhat more northerly model suite that has come out recently.

[KWT]

SDF, true, but I've seen those sorts of systems become surprisingly strong given the presentation, I've seen them go upto 55-60kts in a fairly quick time...and I've even seen the odd hurricane do something similar, though obviously they don't tend to last long as hurricanes!

[dfw75208]

Would someone comment on how Don might affect the weather patterns in Texas after he initially blows through? Will this storm disrupt the system that has camped over the state and brought the non-stop heat and drought such that other systems might come in and level the temperatures and bring raind? I am in Dallas and not expecting this storm to bring us relief directly, but I wonder if there will be an indirect benefit. Thanks.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon findings highest winds away from the center, where the pressure gradient is strongest. To be honest, I'm not that impressed yet. Still has plenty of time to strengthen though.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Well...there is the shear I was talking about. Seems to have a bit more effect on Don than I expected it to. Don should get stronger by tomorrow night, but a hurricane is unlikely at this point. I could see 60 mph max.

[hurricanedude]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Galve ... d_0001.png
shows san luis pass well!

[KWT]

Well...there is the shear I was talking about. Seems to have a bit more effect on Don than I expected it to. Don should get stronger by tomorrow night, but a hurricane is unlikely at this point. I could see 60 mph max.

Just depends really, I think it was obviously under the shear as you said last night, though it became more notable as time went on.

[SouthDadeFish]

SDF, true, but I've seen those sorts of systems become surprisingly strong given the presentation, I've seen them go upto 55-60kts in a fairly quick time...and I've even seen the odd hurricane do something similar, though obviously they don't tend to last long as hurricanes!

True, but the fact that he is so small is not helping him at the moment. Don is really close to a pocket of lower shear, but it seems he'll never get there as the shear belt is sliding west at the same pace he is.

[Dave]

266
URNT15 KNHC 281517
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 32 20110728
150800 2511N 08850W 8430 01592 0132 +167 +047 139044 044 032 000 00
150830 2513N 08850W 8427 01598 0135 +165 +052 139044 044 033 000 00
150900 2515N 08850W 8425 01601 0137 +165 +055 140043 044 033 000 00
150930 2517N 08850W 8435 01593 0138 +167 +058 141043 043 032 000 00
151000 2518N 08851W 8426 01601 0137 +169 +060 142043 043 032 000 00
151030 2520N 08851W 8428 01600 0138 +167 +062 141041 042 032 000 00
151100 2522N 08851W 8430 01596 0136 +169 +063 137039 039 030 001 00
151130 2524N 08852W 8428 01600 0135 +168 +063 141040 041 032 000 03
151200 2526N 08852W 8430 01599 0133 +174 +063 140040 040 030 000 03
151230 2528N 08852W 8429 01602 0137 +173 +063 140039 040 030 000 00
151300 2530N 08852W 8429 01601 0137 +174 +064 141037 038 030 000 03
151330 2531N 08853W 8426 01604 0135 +174 +065 139035 036 /// /// 03
151400 2531N 08855W 8430 01600 0136 +172 +067 139033 033 028 000 03
151430 2530N 08856W 8429 01599 0134 +171 +067 136034 034 028 000 00
151500 2529N 08857W 8434 01595 0137 +170 +064 136034 036 028 000 00
151530 2528N 08859W 8426 01604 0137 +171 +061 139036 036 029 000 00
151600 2526N 08900W 8428 01599 0134 +170 +058 139037 038 029 000 00
151630 2525N 08901W 8429 01595 0135 +170 +056 139037 038 029 000 00
151700 2524N 08902W 8436 01593 0137 +168 +055 137037 037 030 000 00
151730 2523N 08904W 8433 01595 0134 +169 +054 136036 037 031 000 00
$$
;

[Portastorm]

Would someone comment on how Don might affect the weather patterns in Texas after he initially blows through? Will this storm disrupt the system that has camped over the state and brought the non-stop heat and drought such that other systems might come in and level the temperatures and bring raind? I am in Dallas and not expecting this storm to bring us relief directly, but I wonder if there will be an indirect benefit. Thanks.

Your local forecast office should be covering potential effects/impacts and, in your case, the good folks at NWSFO Fort Worth have done just that. Here is a link to their discussion:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[Dave]

823
URNT15 KNHC 281527
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 33 20110728
151800 2522N 08905W 8428 01598 0132 +170 +053 138039 040 030 001 00
151830 2521N 08906W 8425 01600 0135 +166 +053 139037 038 028 001 00
151900 2520N 08907W 8430 01589 0138 +161 +051 135034 036 030 004 00
151930 2519N 08909W 8440 01581 0135 +160 +049 130035 036 036 009 00
152000 2518N 08910W 8427 01595 0139 +154 +044 130043 048 042 009 00
152030 2517N 08911W 8436 01581 0141 +147 +040 140045 048 043 015 00
152100 2515N 08912W 8416 01602 0141 +146 +036 142038 040 045 016 00
152130 2514N 08913W 8434 01584 0139 +147 +033 147037 039 039 008 00
152200 2513N 08915W 8420 01599 0129 +165 +031 150039 040 039 005 00
152230 2512N 08916W 8433 01584 0126 +170 +031 147040 041 038 006 00
152300 2511N 08917W 8429 01590 0128 +168 +034 150040 041 038 005 00
152330 2510N 08918W 8433 01589 0134 +163 +040 153039 040 038 005 00
152400 2509N 08919W 8435 01587 0134 +163 +043 156038 039 035 008 00
152430 2508N 08920W 8426 01595 0132 +164 +043 153041 046 035 006 00
152500 2507N 08922W 8432 01590 0124 +177 +042 152048 049 035 004 00
152530 2506N 08923W 8428 01591 0126 +173 +043 152050 051 034 003 00
152600 2505N 08924W 8432 01588 0125 +171 +045 151051 052 035 003 00
152630 2504N 08925W 8427 01591 0131 +161 +049 151047 048 036 006 00
152700 2503N 08926W 8433 01584 0126 +162 +052 148047 048 041 008 00
152730 2502N 08927W 8426 01593 0121 +172 +050 149041 043 040 008 00
$$
;

[Stormcenter]

NHC confirmed what others had noted this morning.....the NW movement.
In addition Don looks like he's picked up forward speed.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[Dave]

[Dave]

626
URNT15 KNHC 281537
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 34 20110728
152800 2501N 08928W 8428 01589 0122 +172 +048 147041 042 040 001 00
152830 2500N 08930W 8426 01589 0120 +172 +049 143037 040 037 000 00
152900 2459N 08931W 8432 01585 0120 +174 +053 142035 036 034 001 03
152930 2458N 08932W 8428 01588 0118 +175 +059 141033 034 035 000 00
153000 2457N 08933W 8425 01589 0118 +172 +064 139033 034 035 001 00
153030 2456N 08934W 8430 01583 0118 +172 +067 136032 032 035 001 00
153100 2454N 08936W 8429 01584 0123 +163 +069 137030 031 035 004 00
153130 2453N 08937W 8432 01584 0122 +167 +067 142029 029 034 002 00
153200 2452N 08938W 8425 01588 0117 +171 +065 141027 028 034 001 00
153230 2451N 08939W 8433 01579 0116 +173 +066 142026 027 034 001 00
153300 2450N 08941W 8428 01583 0114 +173 +068 140025 026 032 001 00
153330 2449N 08942W 8432 01581 0114 +175 +069 138026 028 032 002 00
153400 2448N 08943W 8432 01583 0115 +175 +070 140026 027 032 001 03
153430 2447N 08944W 8429 01584 0114 +175 +071 141027 027 031 000 03
153500 2446N 08946W 8432 01582 0114 +175 +071 139027 028 031 000 00
153530 2444N 08947W 8432 01580 0113 +176 +071 137029 030 032 001 00
153600 2443N 08948W 8428 01584 0109 +181 +070 136029 030 033 000 00
153630 2442N 08949W 8429 01580 0110 +175 +070 136031 031 031 001 00
153700 2441N 08950W 8433 01573 0107 +175 +071 137032 032 032 000 00
153730 2440N 08952W 8429 01579 0104 +181 +070 138032 032 032 000 00
$$
;

[mf_dolphin]

First 50kt+ fl winds reported

[Dave]

[ConvergenceZone]

It will be interesting to see where the main rain band comes ashore in Texas.

on a side note, boy, the board sure died down today compared to yesterday....

[KWT]

True, but the fact that he is so small is not helping him at the moment. Don is really close to a pocket of lower shear, but it seems he'll never get there as the shear belt is sliding west at the same pace he is.

I'm not sure thats really a size issue though is it, and if anything a small circulation is preventing Don from taking in even more of the dry air to the west which would have almost certainly have happened.