ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2541 Postby SapphireSea » Sun Sep 04, 2011 8:38 pm

CharlestonDoc wrote:Beach erosion is definitely a real issue. We actually had a fair amount of beach damage and erosion just from the bit of Irene that swiped us here in Charleston, SC.

Why is it a "recurve" rather than just a curve? I've been wondering this for years. When did it curve the first time? Is it that it curves north and then northeast?


Recurve indicates a bend back towards the origination point. In this case, any storm that curves back towards it's developed longitude in this case is said to have recurved. In the N. Hemisphere in the atlantic ocean that often means that for a storm to have recurved, it means it has to have gone East instead of West. That also means technically storms like Lenny or Vince which began moving east after developing did not recurve in it's true definition.

The bulk of storms all at some point recurve due to the fact that they detach from the easterly trade winds and head north due to the Coriolis effect and meet up with the mid-latitude westerlies. So, a storm develops in say the MDR for the atlantic at 10N 35W, then curves towards the north and ends up 20N 50W, then curves again this time NE-ENE-E after hitting the westerlies and ends up say at 40N and 35W at the end of a track. That motion is known as the recurve since it came back towards it original starting Longitude.
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#2542 Postby supercane » Sun Sep 04, 2011 9:06 pm

Latest imagery of this compact system:
Microwave:
Image
IR, eye somewhat obscured:
Image
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2543 Postby fci » Sun Sep 04, 2011 9:23 pm

SapphireSea wrote:
CharlestonDoc wrote:Beach erosion is definitely a real issue. We actually had a fair amount of beach damage and erosion just from the bit of Irene that swiped us here in Charleston, SC.

Why is it a "recurve" rather than just a curve? I've been wondering this for years. When did it curve the first time? Is it that it curves north and then northeast?


Recurve indicates a bend back towards the origination point. In this case, any storm that curves back towards it's developed longitude in this case is said to have recurved. In the N. Hemisphere in the atlantic ocean that often means that for a storm to have recurved, it means it has to have gone East instead of West. That also means technically storms like Lenny or Vince which began moving east after developing did not recurve in it's true definition.

The bulk of storms all at some point recurve due to the fact that they detach from the easterly trade winds and head north due to the Coriolis effect and meet up with the mid-latitude westerlies. So, a storm develops in say the MDR for the atlantic at 10N 35W, then curves towards the north and ends up 20N 50W, then curves again this time NE-ENE-E after hitting the westerlies and ends up say at 40N and 35W at the end of a track. That motion is known as the recurve since it came back towards it original starting Longitude.


Great explanation!
To add a little more layman logic to it; the storm originally "curved" generally towards the West and to recurve is to curve generally back to the East.
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#2544 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Sep 04, 2011 9:38 pm

...CATEGORY TWO KATIA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BRING
HAZARDOUS SURF TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 61.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 655 MI...1060 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Advisories

#2545 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2011 9:41 pm

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

AFTER KATIA STRENGTHENED STEADILY EARLIER TODAY...THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR NOW. THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS SYMMETRIC SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS EASILY SEEN IN
MULTI-CHANNEL NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY...IT IS ONLY OCCASIONALLY
EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
THAT VALUE.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD AS A TROUGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW KATIA TO CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THREE DAYS...KATIA
IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA IN FOUR TO
FIVE DAYS...AND THAT COULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY AT 120
HOURS...BUT LIES WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THE CURRENT
TREND TOWARD A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES IN THE
GUIDANCE...FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION WOULD BE REQUIRED.

ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF KATIA HAS LEVELED OFF THIS EVENING...THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE THREE TO FIVE DAY
RANGE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO A REGION WITH LOWER VALUES OF
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND PERHAPS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND IS NEAR
A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. EVEN IF KATIA DOES
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES...THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 23.4N 61.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 24.4N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 25.7N 64.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 26.9N 65.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 28.0N 66.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 30.3N 69.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 33.5N 71.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 36.0N 69.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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#2546 Postby Jevo » Sun Sep 04, 2011 10:47 pm

0z GFS +24

Image
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2547 Postby sponger » Sun Sep 04, 2011 10:52 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

Swell now showing in N FL. 2.3 feet 16 second period followed by a 3 feet 15 second period. The longer the period the farther away the generation point is. The height will build steadily while the period drops. This is swell generated 2-3 days ago.
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#2548 Postby sponger » Sun Sep 04, 2011 11:21 pm

Perfect set up for surf and no one gets hurt! A little fast for my taste but you can't have it all!
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#2549 Postby Jevo » Sun Sep 04, 2011 11:22 pm

0z GFS +87 (closest approach to the coast)

Image
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#2550 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Sep 04, 2011 11:26 pm

A nice smooth curve from the gfs, very similar to Bill, maybe a bit further west when near the east coast and then further east as it passes by Atlantic Canada. Excellent swell generator for surfers although will also bring further beach erosion to already beaten up beaches of the east coast from Irene.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2551 Postby SapphireSea » Sun Sep 04, 2011 11:41 pm

Going to be very dangerous out in the beaches. I hope people take precautions if they head out there, it may go without being said, but I've seen too many people get killed by underestimating these swells and the natural rip currents.

It's always been a downplayed, but a storm can still claim lives even with a total "fish" recurve in part because people oftentimes ignore beach advisories.
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#2552 Postby Jevo » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:11 am

GFS +117

Image
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#2553 Postby maxintensity » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:51 am

0z CMC brings this to NYC.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2554 Postby fci » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:52 am

SapphireSea wrote:Going to be very dangerous out in the beaches. I hope people take precautions if they head out there, it may go without being said, but I've seen too many people get killed by underestimating these swells and the natural rip currents.

It's always been a downplayed, but a storm can still claim lives even with a total "fish" recurve in part because people oftentimes ignore beach advisories.


If people don't have common sense, they can be killed a whole lot of ways.
Play golf in a thunderstorm, drive across a flooded road after a summer thunderstorm has caused a flash flood, touch a downed wire after a gusty summer thunderstorm, smoke in bed.......
No relationship to "recurve" or "fish" that I see.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#2555 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:11 am

maxintensity wrote:0z CMC brings this to NYC.


yep...ridge builds just enough to nudge her over into NYC and curve out from there...

EURO coming out now...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#2556 Postby meriland23 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:12 am

Wow, you're not kidding. I am looking at the animation. Nothing 'close' about this model. In comparison to it 0z yesterday, the westward shift is VERY significant. Check it out yourself. Might just be a blurb or it might be completely wrong, but they must have found something between then and now that pulls this thing right into the united states.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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#2557 Postby meriland23 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:15 am

HWRF shows the same things that cmc does
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#2558 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:16 am

meriland23 wrote:Wow, you're not kidding. I am looking at the animation. Nothing 'close' about this model. In comparison to it 0z yesterday, the westward shift is VERY significant. Check it out yourself. Might just be a blurb or it might be completely wrong, but they must have found something between then and now that pulls this thing right into the united states.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation



the high slides over just enough to send into NYC...EURO running out 72hr...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif
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Re:

#2559 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:17 am

meriland23 wrote:HWRF shows the same things that cmc does
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation



thats a close brush thats for sure....
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#2560 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:19 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif


96hr EURO looking like the previous run....curving out to see well offshore...
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