ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Yikes!! She is getting stronger in a rapid way.

Code: Select all

Continuous Winds TIME
(AST)  WDIR  WSPD
7:50 am E ( 98 deg ) 70.3 kts
7:40 am E ( 87 deg ) 69.9 kts
7:30 am ENE ( 78 deg ) 65.3 kts
7:20 am ENE ( 68 deg ) 61.6 kts
7:10 am ENE ( 62 deg ) 59.8 kts
7:00 am ENE ( 70 deg ) 53.8 kts
   Supplemental Measurements Lowest 1-minute Pressure
Time (AST)    Pressure
7:48 am    28.60 in
Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (AST)   WSPD    WDIR 
7:39 am  77.7 kts  E ( 90 deg true )
 
Peak gust during the measurement hour
 TIME
(AST)  GDR  GST
7:37 am E ( 90 deg ) 91.3 kts
 


[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Cat 2 at 85kts.

AL, 12, 2011090412, , BEST, 0, 216N, 588W, 85, 968, HU

[RL3AO]

Hmm....TC Update or special advisory?

[WeatherGuesser]

What would that do to the track?

[Extratropical94]

I think since the storm isn't directly threatening anyone, they will put the new numbers into the regular 11am advisory package.

[RL3AO]

Someone just clinched the buoy of the month award.

Also well done to ADT from CIMSS. Seems to be right on target.

[gatorcane]

00z UKMET shifts back west with some ridging building off the Carolinas

[cpdaman]

Crazy uncle (ukmet) at it again. Katia will prob be above ukies 120 hr latitude position by mon nite lol

[cpdaman]

Crazy uncle (ukmet) at it again. Katia will prob be above ukies 120 hr latitude position by mon nite lol

[Macrocane]

She's not wasting her time, looks very very good right now I think it may have been a hurricane since at least 6 hours, and if cloud tops cool again and the organization trend continues she could reach major hurricane status today.

[CrazyC83]

No need to give an Update or Special with no land in the way and an advisory 90 minutes away. The BT will need some major adjustments as it doesn't look like Katia has RI'd overnight - it was probably a hurricane all along.

[CrazyC83]

Now I wish Recon was covering Katia all along, but too bad she was way too far away.

[cycloneye]

No need to give an Update or Special with no land in the way and an advisory 90 minutes away. The BT will need some major adjustments as it doesn't look like Katia has RI'd overnight - it was probably a hurricane all along.

ATCF did adjust at 06z to 70kts.

Code: Select all

AL, 12, 2011090406,   , BEST,   0, 211N,  580W,  70,  985, HU,  34, NEQ,  150,  120,   75,  105, 1012,  275,  30,  75,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      KATIA, D, 12, NEQ,  300,  180,  180,  300
AL, 12, 2011090406,   , BEST,   0, 211N,  580W,  70,  985, HU,  50, NEQ,   70,   50,   30,   60, 1012,  275,  30,  75,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      KATIA, D, 12, NEQ,  300,  180,  180,  300
AL, 12, 2011090406,   , BEST,   0, 211N,  580W,  70,  985, HU,  64, NEQ,   30,    0,    0,   30, 1012,  275,  30,  75,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      KATIA, D, 12, NEQ,  300,  180,  180,  300
AL, 12, 2011090412,   , BEST,   0, 216N,  588W,  85,  968, HU,  34, NEQ,  150,  120,   75,  105, 1013,  300,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      KATIA, D,
AL, 12, 2011090412,   , BEST,   0, 216N,  588W,  85,  968, HU,  50, NEQ,   70,   50,   40,   60, 1013,  300,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      KATIA, D,
AL, 12, 2011090412,   , BEST,   0, 216N,  588W,  85,  968, HU

[CrazyC83]

Those buoy winds are 10-min sustained as well I believe? Pressure looks to be about 960mb based on this obs (winds were about 70 kt at the time):

Supplemental Measurements
Lowest 1-minute Pressure
Time (AST)
Pressure
8:35 am

28.59 in

[CrazyC83]

No need to give an Update or Special with no land in the way and an advisory 90 minutes away. The BT will need some major adjustments as it doesn't look like Katia has RI'd overnight - it was probably a hurricane all along.

ATCF did adjust at 06z to 70kts.

Code: Select all

AL, 12, 2011090406,   , BEST,   0, 211N,  580W,  70,  985, HU,  34, NEQ,  150,  120,   75,  105, 1012,  275,  30,  75,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      KATIA, D, 12, NEQ,  300,  180,  180,  300
AL, 12, 2011090406,   , BEST,   0, 211N,  580W,  70,  985, HU,  50, NEQ,   70,   50,   30,   60, 1012,  275,  30,  75,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      KATIA, D, 12, NEQ,  300,  180,  180,  300
AL, 12, 2011090406,   , BEST,   0, 211N,  580W,  70,  985, HU,  64, NEQ,   30,    0,    0,   30, 1012,  275,  30,  75,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      KATIA, D, 12, NEQ,  300,  180,  180,  300
AL, 12, 2011090412,   , BEST,   0, 216N,  588W,  85,  968, HU,  34, NEQ,  150,  120,   75,  105, 1013,  300,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      KATIA, D,
AL, 12, 2011090412,   , BEST,   0, 216N,  588W,  85,  968, HU,  50, NEQ,   70,   50,   40,   60, 1013,  300,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      KATIA, D,
AL, 12, 2011090412,   , BEST,   0, 216N,  588W,  85,  968, HU

I'd adjust that to 75 kt personally with a 974mb pressure, and 18Z and 00Z to 65 kt (pressure 983mb and 981mb respectively) as well.

[Parungo]

85 kt in NRL page.


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20110904.1315.goes13.x.vis1km.12LKATIA.85kts-968mb-216N-588W.100pc.jpg  | 

[CrazyC83]

04/1145 UTC 21.6N 58.7W T4.0/4.0 KATIA -- Atlantic

Disproven by a buoy

[clfenwi]

06Z HWRF and 06Z GFDL. Both have been fairly consistent with their own ideas over the past three runs, especially the GFDL.



HWRF Loop





GFDL loop

[CrazyC83]

The models may need recalibration based on the new intensity.

[tallywx]

Buoy, oh buoy