ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

Unfortunatly, there is no doubt now that Florida is in play:

[beoumont]

Unfortunatly, there is no doubt now that Florida is in play:

Enjoy and save the progs today; as odds are they are at their peak "excitement" level for S. Florida hurricane enthusiasts. When the progs show a cane hitting 5+ days down the road, it more likely will track 200-300 miles east, west, or south of current model tracks.

I recall Ike was progged over S. Florida 5 days out; and many others previously. I always get more filled with anticipation when the progs show a miss by 200-300 miles 5 days out (in the ballpark, and within the avg. margin of error).

But, keep hope alive; you never know; there is sometimes an exception to the "rule",

[Evil Jeremy]

Unfortunatly, there is no doubt now that Florida is in play:

Enjoy and save the progs today; as odds are they are at their peak "excitement" level for S. Florida hurricane enthusiasts. When the progs show a cane hitting 5+ days down the road, it more likely will track 200-300 miles east, west, or south of current model tracks.

I recall Ike was progged over S. Florida 5 days out; and many others previously. I always get more filled with anticipation when the progs show a miss by 200-300 miles 5 days out (in the ballpark, and within the avg. margin of error).

But, keep hope alive; you never know; there is sometimes an exception to the "rule",

I'm not hoping, and I hope you don't think I am -removed-. I don't want a storm. Hence the word "Unfortunatly". And I know models will change, they always do. The fact is, however, that FL is in the cards.

[somethingfunny]

T2.0 would usually correspond to TD strength; however, there is still question about the definition of the surface circulation.

I really think this is going to have shear issues down the road; the anticyclone on the gfs looks small. Too far north or too far south and the storm will get smacked around by either upper-level westerlies or easterlies.

I am also getting tired of the designation "future Emily." It's really starting to remind me of pre-Fiona. I am going to laugh if this ends up being totally insignificant, and the Euro suggests that possibility; actually the gfs is weak too.

And, yes, yes, I know rain/flooding issues. But a tropical cyclone wouldn't even have to exist to cause those problems. So, when I say insignificant, I am referring to its intensity as a tropical cyclone not impact.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Fiona was an entirely different situation, it looked nothing like 91L in its' formative stages and at its' latter stages it was nearly destroyed by Earl's outflow - whereas this system won't have any problems with nearby hurricanes shearing it apart. It's one thing to have a down-casting theme but if you're going to make comparisons, please, compare apples to apples.

I'm not too high on this Invest either, but it's looking remarkably better tonight.

[somethingfunny]

I really can't comment on the eventual track/strength of this system until a sturdy LLC consolidates and we can forecast from that initialization point. It's in almost the same spot it was in last night, so it's lost a day's motion on the forecasts...will be further east/south when the trough swings by. And if it stays weak, we could end up with a Mexico storm. It all depends, really. The only thing that seems set in stone is the ridge over Texas is unbreakable.

[South Texas Storms]

I really can't comment on the eventual track/strength of this system until a sturdy LLC consolidates and we can forecast from that initialization point. It's in almost the same spot it was in last night, so it's lost a day's motion on the forecasts...will be further east/south when the trough swings by. And if it stays weak, we could end up with a Mexico storm. It all depends, really. The only thing that seems set in stone is the ridge over Texas is unbreakable.

Your last sentence is so true, but so sad. I agree with 91L being a very tough forecast for both strength and track. It sure is one interesting Invest.

[somethingfunny]

I really can't comment on the eventual track/strength of this system until a sturdy LLC consolidates and we can forecast from that initialization point. It's in almost the same spot it was in last night, so it's lost a day's motion on the forecasts...will be further east/south when the trough swings by. And if it stays weak, we could end up with a Mexico storm. It all depends, really. The only thing that seems set in stone is the ridge over Texas is unbreakable.

Your last sentence is so true, but so sad. I agree with 91L being a very tough forecast for both strength and track. It sure is one interesting Invest.

It's already made everybody look foolish once today when it split into two circulations, and I suspect it won't be the last time this system makes all of us look silly.

[Evil Jeremy]

Finally, no more duel blobs in competition. 91L is sustaining convection and should really burst in the morning. I think we finally have a TD on our hands, and at this rate, I think we will get advisories at 11am:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[dwsqos2]

Oh, I agree it's looking better tonight both at the surface and aloft.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .96pc.html

One of the French buoys (41101) had winds 22 knots at 140 degrees along with a pressure of 29.78 in.

[South Texas Storms]

It does look good tonight and I think we may see advisories start to be issued at 11am. It looks to be moving very slowly right now too.

[southerngale]

It's definitely looking better tonight.

[Extratropical94]

It's definitely looking better tonight.

http://i54.tinypic.com/2qiclk7.jpg

Agreed, now it starts to have that real "depression blob"-like look.
NHC will wait for recon to upgrade anything which I think is reasonable since 91L has fooled even the best trained mets and professionals.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the engine has fired and we have liftoff. Now to see how the models initialize and what the first forecast track from the NHC will be. Hopefully recon will make it out there before the 11:00AM advisory. If they don't I could definitely see the NHC putting out a special advisory between 11:00AM and 5:00PM. If recon doesn't find anything I'll be stunned and eat crow with a lot of other people.

SFT

[alan1961]

Going to be interesting to see this as it enters the so called
"caribbean death zone", does it strengthen a little and stay
intact or will it get disrupted, ie, wind shear, dry air, ULL,
this area is renoun for this even when a forcast is reasonably
conducive for development...nhc and forcasting models hinting
at gradual development thru the islands.... but the death zone may
have other ideas!...interesting none the less

[KWT]

Think its pretty certain its a TD now, looks like the system has stacked up neatly nowm and developing good convection, NHC may as well upgrade soon/now rather then wait for it to be a TS by the time recon gets there.

[KWT]

Land interaction may well be the blessing for the Bahamas/Florida but even so history shows systems like this cvan still become hurricanes again, take a look at David/Cleo as good examples.

Models shifting westwards, and to be fair they really aren't that far from the Gulf.

The best hope is it goes over Hispanola, gets torn up, then tracks right into Florida and not have time to reorganise.

[Extratropical94]

Think its pretty certain its a TD now, looks like the system has stacked up neatly nowm and developing good convection, NHC may as well upgrade soon/now rather then wait for it to be a TS by the time recon gets there.

I personally don't think they will do things in a hurry now but wait til everything is confirmed and backed up by raw data. We've seen them stay in a conservative mood until recon gets out and measures TD/TS winds and a fully closed LLC. I certainly would not be surprised if this one becomes another TS-straight-out-of-nothing storm skipping TD status at either 11am or 5pm.
But, as always, this is just my way of thinking and might be proven wrong at any time.

[KWT]

Possibly, it depends on how confident the NHC is on the likelyhood of it strengthening before recon is in.

Looks like Florida is very much in the mix now, as its the Bahamas for obvious reasons.

Just need to hope Hispaniola really does a number on the circulation of this system, wouldn't be shocked to see it struggle as it exits that area for a time, though forecasted conditions look good.

[Evil Jeremy]

Through 48 hours, the 06z GFS is NE of the 00z. The first run in a while to go against the trend, but still a long ways to go before we determine if the trend is actually reversing.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

[KWT]

Upper troughing is stronger this run thats for sure...

Straight through DR:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif