ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031639
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 35 20110903
163000 2742N 09009W 8428 01514 //// +184 //// 232031 031 026 000 01
163030 2740N 09010W 8428 01514 //// +183 //// 231029 030 024 000 01
163100 2739N 09010W 8430 01509 //// +180 //// 230030 030 023 000 01
163130 2739N 09010W 8430 01509 //// +184 //// 229030 031 024 000 01
163200 2736N 09012W 8432 01510 //// +184 //// 228031 031 023 000 01
163230 2735N 09012W 8433 01509 //// +183 //// 231030 031 024 000 05
163300 2734N 09013W 8427 01515 //// +182 //// 232031 031 024 000 01
163330 2733N 09014W 8429 01512 //// +178 //// 233031 031 025 000 01
163400 2731N 09015W 8432 01511 //// +178 //// 234031 032 025 000 05
163430 2731N 09016W 8424 01519 //// +178 //// 228030 031 023 000 05
163500 2731N 09018W 8428 01515 //// +181 //// 226029 029 022 000 05
163530 2732N 09019W 8428 01514 //// +183 //// 227029 029 022 000 01
163600 2733N 09021W 8431 01509 //// +183 //// 226028 029 020 000 01
163630 2734N 09022W 8430 01509 //// +180 //// 225029 030 020 000 01
163700 2734N 09024W 8428 01512 //// +178 //// 222028 028 021 000 05
163730 2735N 09025W 8430 01508 //// +177 //// 225027 027 021 000 05
163800 2736N 09027W 8429 01508 //// +178 //// 224028 029 020 000 05
163830 2737N 09028W 8429 01510 //// +178 //// 224028 029 020 000 01
163900 2738N 09030W 8428 01509 //// +180 //// 222027 028 020 000 05
163930 2740N 09030W 8425 01511 //// +180 //// 222030 030 024 000 05
$$
;

[wxman57]

Pressure at 997 in Lafayette, radar starting to fill in nicely with rain bands. You definitely know there's a tropical system outside with a fine but dense rain blowing around and rapidly moving low level clouds in the sky. Will be very interesting to watch Lee through the day as this may not be a cut and dry "north" forecast. Maybe we'll see some loops after all .

Could you give us a link to a good radar site out of Lafayette. thanks in advance BTW, sun actually peeked out for a short time. Some of my friends have been without power since 3am this morning.

Ch. 10 (KLFY) in Lafayette has a radar online. I actually interviewed there in 1980 with Dick Faurot and Maria Placier (sp?). They offered me a job but wasn't much pay. Ended up taking a job in Houston instead.

http://www.klfy.com/category/83665/live ... r-10-radar

[MBryant]

Latest NAM has leave pushing WSW from current location and then south as it intensifies into a hurricane!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

NAM on drugs!!!

So's Lee.

[Dave]

199
URNT15 KNHC 031649
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 36 20110903
164000 2742N 09030W 8431 01506 //// +176 //// 224030 030 023 000 01
164030 2744N 09030W 8430 01504 //// +177 //// 222030 030 024 000 05
164100 2746N 09030W 8428 01510 //// +177 //// 219029 029 025 000 05
164130 2748N 09030W 8428 01510 //// +180 //// 218029 029 025 000 01
164200 2750N 09030W 8430 01506 //// +178 //// 221028 028 026 000 01
164230 2752N 09030W 8429 01510 //// +177 //// 219027 028 026 000 01
164300 2754N 09030W 8421 01516 //// +175 //// 216028 029 026 000 05
164330 2756N 09030W 8428 01511 //// +175 //// 213027 027 026 000 01
164400 2758N 09030W 8424 01517 //// +175 //// 210026 027 027 000 01
164430 2800N 09030W 8431 01509 //// +178 //// 212028 029 028 000 01
164500 2803N 09030W 8430 01510 //// +180 //// 211028 029 028 000 01
164530 2805N 09030W 8429 01510 //// +179 //// 210027 027 028 000 01
164600 2808N 09030W 8429 01509 //// +180 //// 211028 028 028 000 01
164630 2810N 09030W 8429 01509 //// +181 //// 209029 029 028 000 01
164700 2812N 09030W 8430 01507 //// +181 //// 207029 029 029 000 05
164730 2815N 09030W 8430 01507 //// +181 //// 205028 029 028 000 01
164800 2817N 09030W 8430 01505 //// +182 //// 203029 030 028 000 01
164830 2820N 09030W 8430 01504 //// +180 //// 202030 031 028 000 01
164900 2822N 09030W 8429 01506 //// +179 //// 202029 030 027 000 01
164930 2825N 09030W 8428 01505 //// +182 //// 199030 030 027 000 05
$$
;

[Dave]

[jes]

Does the Nam project which direction the separated storm will travel once it reenters the gulf??

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This 12z NAM "projected radar" loop clearly shows the system splitting, with a lot of the convection moving northeast, and a piece of energy breaking off and moving back out into the Gulf.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... ELoop.html

That is very interesting indeed rockyman. I don't put much faith in it but remember back to the early models runs of Lee that pushed him sw down the TX coast doing a loop in the gulf and coming back to LA as a strong hurricane. Believe the euro and GFS both showed this. Will definitely be watching the energy over west LA assoicated with Lee today and tomorrow.

Pro's any chance of this actaully happening?

[Dave]

284
URNT15 KNHC 031700
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 37 20110903
165000 2827N 09031W 8444 01489 //// +190 //// 203028 030 /// /// 05
165030 2828N 09032W 8440 01479 //// +183 //// 209024 027 024 000 01
165100 2829N 09033W 8430 01491 //// +183 //// 204025 026 020 000 05
165130 2830N 09035W 8430 01490 //// +184 //// 202026 026 019 000 05
165200 2832N 09036W 8431 01490 //// +180 //// 203027 028 020 000 01
165230 2833N 09037W 8429 01494 //// +180 //// 199027 028 018 000 05
165300 2833N 09039W 8434 01484 //// +180 //// 203026 027 021 000 05
165330 2834N 09041W 8429 01488 //// +175 //// 207027 027 023 000 05
165400 2834N 09043W 8430 01487 //// +177 //// 204027 027 024 000 01
165430 2835N 09044W 8430 01487 //// +179 //// 203029 030 023 000 01
165500 2835N 09046W 8428 01487 //// +179 //// 203029 030 022 000 01
165530 2836N 09048W 8433 01481 //// +182 //// 203028 029 023 000 01
165600 2836N 09049W 8431 01483 //// +180 //// 205030 030 023 000 01
165630 2837N 09051W 8428 01484 //// +178 //// 204029 030 021 000 05
165700 2838N 09053W 8434 01478 //// +175 //// 203027 028 021 000 01
165730 2838N 09055W 8428 01482 //// +173 //// 201027 027 024 000 05
165800 2839N 09056W 8432 01480 //// +175 //// 202029 029 024 000 01
165830 2839N 09058W 8430 01476 //// +178 //// 201028 029 022 000 05
165900 2840N 09100W 8433 01475 //// +179 //// 199031 032 023 000 01
165930 2840N 09102W 8424 01482 //// +176 //// 199029 031 025 000 01
$$
;

[MBryant]

This 12z NAM "projected radar" loop clearly shows the system splitting, with a lot of the convection moving northeast, and a piece of energy breaking off and moving back out into the Gulf.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... ELoop.html

Has this "splitting effect" ever happened before, and if so, does anyone have any history to offer?????

I remember a similar storm around 1970 give or take a couple of years which was drifting offshore between Houston and Pt Arthur which split with the newer northern component becoming the stronger core. They didn't like us listening to weather on our transistor radios
while in class back then. They applied a firm memory for me.

[Dave]

[MGC]

The center of Lee is quite interesting with the two eddies rotating around each other....

The gulf got up to the seawall in a couple of spots in Pass Christian this morning.

Only light rain falling now and the winds have died off a bit.

Looks to me that the center point of the two eddies is near Marsh Island...hard to tell just which way the central mess is moving.

Dry air into SE Louisiana still moving eastward....MGC

[Dave]

285
URNT15 KNHC 031709
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 38 20110903
170000 2841N 09103W 8434 01471 //// +178 //// 199028 029 025 000 01
170030 2842N 09105W 8428 01476 //// +178 //// 203030 031 026 000 01
170100 2842N 09107W 8429 01473 //// +180 //// 201030 030 025 000 05
170130 2843N 09108W 8430 01472 //// +181 //// 198031 032 026 000 05
170200 2843N 09110W 8428 01473 //// +181 //// 195032 032 029 000 05
170230 2844N 09112W 8430 01469 //// +184 //// 198031 033 028 000 01
170300 2844N 09114W 8429 01469 //// +182 //// 203031 032 030 000 01
170330 2845N 09115W 8428 01469 //// +182 //// 205031 031 031 000 01
170400 2846N 09117W 8432 01467 //// +187 //// 204033 034 030 000 01
170430 2846N 09119W 8429 01466 //// +182 //// 202035 036 030 000 01
170500 2847N 09121W 8428 01468 //// +177 //// 203035 036 030 000 01
170530 2847N 09122W 8433 01459 //// +177 //// 208035 035 029 000 01
170600 2848N 09124W 8429 01465 //// +175 //// 204035 036 029 000 01
170630 2848N 09126W 8428 01464 //// +180 //// 204038 039 030 000 05
170700 2849N 09127W 8430 01460 //// +180 //// 204039 039 031 000 01
170730 2849N 09129W 8428 01463 //// +180 //// 205039 041 032 000 05
170800 2850N 09131W 8429 01460 //// +179 //// 204040 041 032 000 01
170830 2851N 09132W 8429 01457 //// +179 //// 202039 040 032 000 01
170900 2851N 09134W 8429 01455 //// +182 //// 201039 040 032 000 01
170930 2852N 09136W 8430 01451 //// +181 //// 205037 038 033 000 01
$$
;

[PTrackerLA]

Up to 3.5" of rain at my house. These rainbands that don't look like much on the radar really pump out the precipitation. As they continue to fill in this afternoon I can see us getting several more inches. No flooding issues but I noticed the river is nearing bankfull and lots of standing water so we're definitely saturated now.

[SoupBone]

We're very fortunate Lee has been sucking in so much dry air. He could have easily already been a hurricane if not for the Texas air he's been ingesting. We've had lots of rain and many tornado warnings, but I can only imagine how much worse it could be right now if not for the dry air ingestion.

[BigB0882]

I saw the sun for a little while here in Baton Rouge,

[PTrackerLA]

Convection increasing near the center and a nice blowup offshore. Wouldn't be surprised to see it tighten up some more offshore. Sun just peaked out here I'd imagine that will help destabilize the atmosphere further for this evening.

[Dave]

[Dave]

658
URNT15 KNHC 031719
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 39 20110903
171000 2852N 09137W 8432 01448 //// +182 //// 206038 038 034 000 01
171030 2853N 09139W 8429 01449 //// +189 //// 203036 037 036 000 01
171100 2853N 09141W 8433 01441 //// +184 //// 202037 038 037 000 05
171130 2854N 09143W 8426 01447 //// +186 //// 203036 037 039 000 05
171200 2854N 09144W 8430 01440 //// +190 //// 202038 039 043 005 01
171230 2855N 09146W 8435 01434 //// +192 //// 199037 038 039 001 05
171300 2855N 09148W 8428 01439 //// +197 //// 197037 039 038 000 05
171330 2856N 09150W 8428 01435 //// +199 //// 197033 036 036 000 01
171400 2857N 09151W 8431 01431 //// +194 //// 201030 030 036 000 01
171430 2857N 09153W 8432 01431 //// +194 //// 205025 028 034 000 01
171500 2858N 09155W 8430 01430 //// +194 //// 209022 023 027 000 01
171530 2858N 09156W 8429 01431 //// +200 //// 223017 018 024 000 01
171600 2859N 09158W 8429 01429 //// +196 //// 241015 016 023 000 01
171630 2859N 09200W 8429 01430 //// +196 //// 252016 017 022 000 05
171700 2901N 09201W 8429 01429 //// +200 //// 258012 014 018 000 05
171730 2902N 09202W 8425 01433 //// +198 //// 256011 012 013 000 05
171800 2903N 09203W 8433 01425 //// +196 //// 260011 011 015 000 01
171830 2905N 09203W 8427 01433 //// +198 //// 243010 011 016 000 05
171900 2907N 09204W 8429 01430 //// +200 //// 230008 008 015 000 05
171930 2908N 09205W 8427 01432 //// +197 //// 185007 009 015 000 05
$$
;

[nashrobertsx]

actually the sun looks to be out all over nola right now.. u can see the cleat slot on sat.. should be a nice afternoon. the bands are now far disbursed from the storm over in ms/al. doubt we will see any more rains in metro nola for a while now... maybe 6 hours.. who knows though..
nola