ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ROCK]

OK I will say it... ...IMO, FL and the GOM are coming into play ever so slowly...EURO is going to really help later...

Wxman earlier said he sees this becoming a hurricane and threatening PR. Still alot of uncertainty there for certain. As always ROCK you know your stuff...you can see what it actually would take to send this baby our way

yeah I hear ya....I just like to give you the business....


WXMN also predicted a mini cat 1 or 2 into the mid-texas coast a few days ago..... Not to throw you under the bus WXMN57....

[fci]

156 hours...this run would have tropical storm conditions all up the East coast of Florida

This run also has the East Coast of Florida on the weaker west side of a system. Questionable if TS conditions would even reach the mainland.

[ROCK]

NOGAPS crushes FL.....right up the spine and spits out at the border....ugly...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[SeminoleWind]

NOGAPS crushes FL.....right up the spine and spits out at the border....ugly...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

OUCH!!

[SouthFLTropics]

NOGAPS crushes FL.....right up the spine and spits out at the border....ugly...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Well I don't like that one bit at all...Can we pretend that model run didn't happen???

[ROCK]

if the EURO trends west and sends this into the GOM, I have some left over crow from Don that I will be delivering tonight.....

[fci]

Whoa...Easy with the Andrew reference. Nobody is even hinting at that at this time. Andrew was a whole different animal all together. In fact, I think your post just then is the first reference I've seen to Andrew in regards to 91L.


dude, relax. i meant in terms of intensity, it is not likely this will be an Andrew. i Should have referred it to jeanne or Frances. maybe even wilma. My mistake. BUT IM NOT SAYING THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN, GUYS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actually this has no resemblance to Andrew, Jeanne, Francis or Wilma!
Like some earlier had pointed out, this is most similar to David.
Not a big deal to Florida but horrific for Haiti as the mane was retired after.
Also, could be similar to Ernesto which we called the "leaf blower" since that's about all that blew around!

[dwsqos2]

You know the 0Z gfs was the weakest run yet.

I am not sold on hurricane in the Caribbean. The progged upper-level anticyclone on the gfs looks a bit smaller than previous runs, and 91L doesn't look as well-positioned underneath it. Shear could be an issue.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

if the EURO trends west and sends this into the GOM, I have some left over crow from Don that I will be delivering tonight.....

In all fairness Rock I don't think crow is allowed to be dished out until after the storm has passed...At least that seems to be fair house rules...

[lebron23]

right bias of HWRF gone.....turning west into FL.


http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 0_wind.png

[Ivanhater]

00z HWRF shifts west

[ROCK]

Ivan, the HWRF has an extreme right bias as well....we have seen that in all its previous runs....just sayin

[TwisterFanatic]

Woah, even the right bias HWRF shifted.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'll wait until there is an actual defined centre before I make make my final prediction, current westward model trend or no current westward model trend.

[Fego]

SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF MARTINIQUE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH

Lets see if the thunderstorms persist.

[ROCK]

GFDL up next....I expect a west run also...

[Evil Jeremy]

Euro started I believe, initialized with two lows:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP000.gif

24 hours out:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP024.gif

[WeatherEmperor]

New GFDL turns it north in the Bahamas about 100 miles off the FL coast.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_91.gif

[Ivanhater]

Updated HWRF...bending west

[cheezyWXguy]

That hwrf looks to be a worst case scenario in terms of track for florida. That track would have overall the last possible land interaction and plenty of time for this storm to strengthen before making landfall. While it isnt set in stone, its a real possibility and certainly must be considered. If this storm strengthens quicker, this path, as opposed to one further west through the DR/cuba could be more likely.