ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

In Guadeloupe due to Katia... given of Pro Mets of Meteo-France, some waves have reached 3meters60 this afternoon and some big waves 6meters40! A man is maybe dead while i was fishing . Looks like a big wave has swept him (not official as he's always wanted). I will give you more if i have any infos...

Too bad, even hundreds of miles away they can cause deaths. By the way it is looking better organized it could be a hurricane again in my opinion.

[Hurricaneman]

I think this is the best Katia has ever looked, and this will probably strengthen more for the next 24 hrs at least

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[clfenwi]

Microwave image from ~1.5 hr ago

[ozonepete]

Based on that microwave image and the fact that the CIMSS current analysis of very low shear (just a little SW shear left and looks to be waning) and very moist low and mid-level air ahead of Katia, along with the really big immprovement on satellite (very impressive symmetry developing now and better outflow developing on the south side), I would say this will really blow up tonight and show significant strengthening. Just can't see any negatives right now.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[clfenwi]

18Z HWRF; a lurch back east.


ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM KATIA 12L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 3

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -56.30 LAT: 19.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -57.30 LAT: 20.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -58.20 LAT: 20.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -59.20 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -60.30 LAT: 21.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 78.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -61.30 LAT: 22.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -62.40 LAT: 22.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 943.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -63.40 LAT: 23.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -64.30 LAT: 24.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -65.00 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -66.00 LAT: 25.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 108.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -66.80 LAT: 26.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 107.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -67.70 LAT: 27.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 107.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -68.50 LAT: 27.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -69.30 LAT: 28.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -70.00 LAT: 28.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -70.80 LAT: 29.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -71.20 LAT: 29.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 30.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 31.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 107.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -71.40 LAT: 32.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -70.80 LAT: 34.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 99.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


Wind swath



Loop

[Airboy]

I think the "alarm bells" on the east coast will go off tomorrow, looks like the storm is moving more west and ready to get stronger tonight.

[Gustywind]

In Guadeloupe due to Katia... given of Pro Mets of Meteo-France, some waves have reached 3meters60 this afternoon and some big waves 6meters40! A man is maybe dead while i was fishing . Looks like a big wave has swept him (not official as he's always wanted). I will give you more if i have any infos...

Too bad, even hundreds of miles away they can cause deaths. By the way it is looking better organized it could be a hurricane again in my opinion.

Yeah very very sad and pretty awesome! On a small island we should repeat again:never say never.

[gatorcane]

18z GFDL looks to recurve but At 70w.

[clfenwi]

18Z GFDL wind swath



loop

[superfly]

It looks like a lot depends on what Lee does at this point and how he'll affect the synoptics in the NE.

[bexar]

poor Katia struggling. I wouldn't be surprised if she doesn't regain hurricane strength anymore. This year is just so hostile for CV development.

the shear and dry air in far east atlantic has been such a pest this year

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane again at 11 PM is a real possibility as SSD dvorak returns to 4.0.

03/2345 UTC 20.3N 56.8W T4.0/4.0 KATIA -- Atlantic

[gatorcane]

Judging by the last several ECMWF runs, wouldn't surprise me it shifts east on the 00z. Seems to be the pattern.....12z goes west 00z goes east.

[HurricaneWarning92]

It looks like shes been moving westward the past 2 hours...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track mantains intensity at 60kts.

AL, 12, 2011090400, , BEST, 0, 200N, 570W, 60, 993, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[ozonepete]

CIMSS now 4.3. I really expect a big spike tonight.

Edited to say I meant CIMSS Dvorak ADT, of course.

[ozonepete]

poor Katia struggling. I wouldn't be surprised if she doesn't regain hurricane strength anymore. This year is just so hostile for CV development.

the shear and dry air in far east atlantic has been such a pest this year

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Have you seen the last few hours on satellite presentation? And the latest CIMSS analysis?

[ozonepete]

In Guadeloupe due to Katia... given of Pro Mets of Meteo-France, some waves have reached 3meters60 this afternoon and some big waves 6meters40! A man is maybe dead while i was fishing . Looks like a big wave has swept him (not official as he's always wanted). I will give you more if i have any infos...

Too bad, even hundreds of miles away they can cause deaths. By the way it is looking better organized it could be a hurricane again in my opinion.

Yeah very very sad and pretty awesome! On a small island we should repeat again:never say never.

so sorry to hear that. And I was just thinking before that there must be some pretty significant seas developing down there. Stay safe!

[OuterBanker]

There wasn't much agreement in the models in Irene until we got recon and G IV input. Then they all got a handle on it. I can understand because of budget retraints on why they haven't sent it in yet. Before long, if it doesn't seem to want to turn out to sea I guess they will send it in because of the threat to the conus.

[clfenwi]

Not the greatest of passes, but it did catch the center and is less than an hour old