ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#2281 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 5:30 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 142227
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 30 20110914
221730 2509N 06714W 8270 01732 0116 +136 +073 180061 063 044 010 00
221800 2511N 06714W 8275 01727 0114 +137 +073 181058 060 044 010 00
221830 2513N 06714W 8284 01717 0122 +128 +074 178060 065 043 014 00
221900 2515N 06714W 8267 01730 0118 +126 +074 181066 067 045 013 00
221930 2518N 06714W 8259 01739 0122 +124 +072 179069 073 042 013 00
222000 2520N 06714W 8270 01721 0113 +129 +071 179064 070 045 017 00
222030 2522N 06715W 8272 01723 0116 +129 +071 176057 065 042 015 00
222100 2524N 06715W 8270 01722 0109 +134 +072 178058 061 043 013 00
222130 2526N 06715W 8265 01730 0116 +127 +073 176062 065 041 014 00
222200 2529N 06715W 8274 01720 0115 +127 +074 177057 059 039 013 00
222230 2531N 06715W 8276 01722 0116 +128 +075 177058 060 038 011 00
222300 2533N 06715W 8275 01720 0114 +128 +075 179064 066 040 009 00
222330 2535N 06715W 8278 01719 0114 +129 +075 178062 063 039 010 00
222400 2537N 06716W 8269 01726 0108 +136 +075 181065 066 038 009 00
222430 2539N 06716W 8274 01719 0104 +140 +075 183066 066 040 008 00
222500 2541N 06716W 8272 01720 0113 +128 +074 182066 066 040 009 00
222530 2544N 06716W 8276 01719 0108 +137 +074 181065 066 041 007 00
222600 2546N 06716W 8274 01719 0097 +151 +074 181064 065 044 008 00
222630 2548N 06716W 8271 01719 0095 +149 +075 179065 067 044 008 00
222700 2550N 06716W 8274 01715 0096 +148 +077 178068 069 042 005 00
$$
;

73 kt FL (supports about 60 kt at surface using a *.82 reduction)
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#2282 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 5:39 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 142237
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 31 20110914
222730 2552N 06717W 8273 01716 0099 +140 +078 176070 070 042 005 00
222800 2555N 06717W 8274 01713 0098 +139 +079 174071 072 044 006 00
222830 2557N 06717W 8271 01714 0099 +136 +079 175071 071 043 007 00
222900 2559N 06717W 8274 01713 0096 +139 +079 177069 070 044 007 00
222930 2601N 06717W 8278 01705 0100 +131 +079 178067 070 044 007 00
223000 2604N 06717W 8271 01716 0105 +128 +079 178066 073 046 015 00
223030 2606N 06718W 8268 01717 0098 +136 +079 171057 062 044 012 00
223100 2608N 06718W 8269 01719 0097 +140 +080 168055 056 043 011 00
223130 2610N 06718W 8273 01715 0103 +133 +081 162062 064 046 013 00
223200 2612N 06718W 8284 01703 0106 +129 +081 167056 057 047 017 00
223230 2614N 06718W 8277 01709 0111 +120 +080 165056 057 048 021 00
223300 2616N 06718W 8270 01719 0102 +136 +079 165057 058 044 013 00
223330 2618N 06718W 8273 01716 0098 +141 +078 163057 058 043 010 00
223400 2620N 06719W 8272 01715 0099 +139 +077 161059 060 044 011 00
223430 2622N 06719W 8273 01714 0103 +133 +076 161060 060 045 012 00
223500 2625N 06719W 8272 01716 0105 +130 +076 162062 062 044 013 00
223530 2627N 06719W 8272 01715 0107 +127 +076 161061 061 043 013 00
223600 2629N 06719W 8273 01718 0103 +133 +076 162058 059 045 010 00
223630 2631N 06719W 8275 01715 0102 +138 +076 162055 056 045 010 00
223700 2633N 06719W 8270 01720 0100 +139 +076 162053 055 046 009 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2283 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 5:42 pm

gatorcane wrote:No threat to land so as you can see nobody really cares anymore

Umm OR the fact that Maria has been the same for days? Nothing has changed, really at all, so...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2284 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 14, 2011 5:49 pm

Through HDOB 31:

Image
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#2285 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 5:49 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 142247
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 32 20110914
223730 2635N 06720W 8274 01715 0097 +142 +077 162050 050 046 010 00
223800 2637N 06720W 8272 01716 0103 +134 +078 162050 050 046 014 00
223830 2639N 06720W 8266 01724 0099 +140 +079 161047 050 047 013 00
223900 2641N 06720W 8271 01719 0095 +147 +080 157046 046 046 013 00
223930 2643N 06720W 8275 01715 0094 +149 +081 157046 047 046 012 00
224000 2645N 06720W 8273 01718 0092 +152 +082 157048 049 044 011 00
224030 2647N 06720W 8274 01718 0095 +150 +083 158050 050 042 010 00
224100 2649N 06721W 8273 01718 0094 +150 +085 160051 051 043 006 00
224130 2651N 06721W 8272 01718 0093 +150 +087 160052 052 044 004 00
224200 2653N 06721W 8272 01718 0094 +149 +089 158050 051 045 003 00
224230 2655N 06721W 8273 01718 0093 +150 +092 155049 050 047 004 00
224300 2657N 06721W 8270 01720 0092 +150 +095 158051 052 046 004 00
224330 2659N 06721W 8275 01715 0097 +143 +097 155053 054 048 005 00
224400 2701N 06721W 8274 01719 0103 +135 +099 150051 052 045 007 03
224430 2703N 06722W 8271 01721 0094 +149 +099 146052 053 049 004 00
224500 2705N 06723W 8270 01720 0093 +150 +099 152057 059 046 003 03
224530 2707N 06723W 8266 01726 0094 +150 +099 155056 057 034 004 03
224600 2709N 06722W 8273 01721 0094 +154 +100 156054 055 034 004 00
224630 2710N 06721W 8272 01722 0096 +152 +101 155053 053 034 003 00
224700 2712N 06720W 8275 01720 0098 +151 +103 154053 053 034 004 00
$$
;
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#2286 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 5:50 pm

Recon supports a 60 kt intensity based on FL and SFMR winds.
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#2287 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 6:01 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 142257
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 33 20110914
224730 2714N 06719W 8274 01720 0100 +147 +104 154051 052 /// /// 03
224800 2716N 06720W 8277 01720 0098 +150 +105 153050 050 037 006 03
224830 2717N 06721W 8273 01722 0102 +145 +105 152049 050 038 008 00
224900 2719N 06722W 8271 01724 0103 +141 +104 149048 048 040 007 00
224930 2721N 06723W 8274 01718 0099 +145 +103 149047 047 035 007 03
225000 2723N 06723W 8274 01721 0098 +150 +103 152046 047 040 005 00
225030 2725N 06723W 8270 01726 0099 +147 +102 154049 050 037 007 00
225100 2727N 06723W 8269 01726 0095 +153 +102 152051 051 038 005 00
225130 2729N 06723W 8278 01716 0097 +152 +101 152051 052 034 007 00
225200 2731N 06724W 8275 01721 0096 +154 +101 153051 052 036 004 00
225230 2733N 06724W 8277 01720 0100 +149 +101 154048 049 035 001 00
225300 2735N 06724W 8271 01726 0103 +147 +103 153048 049 033 003 00
225330 2737N 06724W 8276 01721 0102 +147 +104 151050 050 034 003 00
225400 2739N 06724W 8272 01726 0102 +149 +105 153050 050 034 001 00
225430 2741N 06724W 8271 01729 0102 +151 +106 153048 049 033 003 00
225500 2743N 06724W 8274 01726 0106 +147 +107 156045 046 033 002 00
225530 2745N 06725W 8274 01726 0105 +150 +108 155045 046 032 003 00
225600 2747N 06725W 8269 01732 0105 +150 +109 155044 045 031 002 00
225630 2749N 06725W 8281 01721 0108 +145 +110 151044 045 028 002 00
225700 2751N 06725W 8272 01732 0111 +145 +111 157046 046 030 002 00
$$
;
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#2288 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 6:09 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 142307
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 34 20110914
225730 2753N 06725W 8274 01730 0111 +145 +111 156046 047 031 001 00
225800 2755N 06725W 8276 01731 0113 +144 +111 154046 046 030 002 00
225830 2757N 06725W 8267 01741 0116 +141 +111 151048 049 030 002 00
225900 2759N 06725W 8274 01732 0115 +142 +111 153046 048 021 002 00
225930 2801N 06726W 8276 01731 0118 +141 +110 154047 049 017 002 00
230000 2803N 06726W 8273 01734 0116 +144 +110 157048 049 020 002 00
230030 2805N 06726W 8278 01731 0117 +141 +110 155045 048 024 006 03
230100 2807N 06726W 8277 01741 0132 +125 +112 143042 046 030 012 03
230130 2808N 06728W 8262 01745 0124 +131 +112 144035 037 /// /// 03
230200 2806N 06729W 8273 01732 0128 +128 +110 141035 039 001 015 03
230230 2805N 06730W 8282 01726 0116 +145 +107 148039 041 012 002 03
230300 2804N 06730W 8272 01735 0114 +146 +106 155042 043 016 004 00
230330 2803N 06731W 8270 01734 0117 +137 +105 149041 043 016 007 00
230400 2801N 06731W 8278 01730 0118 +138 +105 148037 039 024 004 03
230430 2800N 06733W 8272 01732 0111 +144 +104 152039 041 020 001 03
230500 2800N 06734W 8251 01751 0109 +143 +105 152040 040 020 003 03
230530 2759N 06736W 8214 01788 0106 +143 +105 152041 041 020 003 03
230600 2758N 06737W 8207 01798 0109 +141 +106 151041 042 020 002 00
230630 2757N 06738W 8253 01751 0110 +143 +107 149042 043 019 002 00
230700 2756N 06740W 8274 01726 0107 +145 +108 146042 043 020 003 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2289 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 14, 2011 6:13 pm

Through HDOB 34:

Image
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#2290 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 6:20 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 142317
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 35 20110914
230730 2755N 06741W 8273 01725 0107 +142 +109 140040 042 023 004 00
230800 2753N 06742W 8271 01725 0114 +129 +110 134038 040 026 008 00
230830 2752N 06743W 8280 01718 0108 +140 +108 139042 045 030 006 00
230900 2751N 06745W 8272 01725 0107 +137 +106 137043 044 030 010 00
230930 2750N 06746W 8269 01725 0116 +124 +103 133042 049 035 015 00
231000 2749N 06747W 8269 01720 0110 +126 +101 139045 048 043 022 00
231030 2748N 06748W 8274 01721 0109 +128 +099 138043 050 052 045 03
231100 2747N 06750W 8274 01724 0117 +124 +098 142041 042 064 038 03
231130 2746N 06751W 8281 01712 0112 +124 +098 144043 044 049 023 00
231200 2745N 06752W 8263 01731 0108 +131 +097 146041 042 043 018 03
231230 2744N 06753W 8273 01718 0095 +146 +096 147041 042 033 006 00
231300 2742N 06755W 8270 01723 0097 +145 +096 142043 044 028 005 00
231330 2741N 06756W 8274 01716 0094 +148 +096 143046 047 028 004 00
231400 2740N 06757W 8274 01715 0092 +149 +097 143047 047 026 005 00
231430 2739N 06758W 8272 01716 0091 +150 +099 141047 048 026 004 00
231500 2738N 06800W 8275 01710 0095 +140 +101 142049 051 027 004 00
231530 2737N 06801W 8281 01703 0088 +149 +102 146050 051 027 002 00
231600 2736N 06802W 8275 01710 0086 +150 +103 144049 051 029 004 00
231630 2735N 06803W 8275 01710 0088 +146 +105 146048 048 029 005 00
231700 2734N 06804W 8266 01718 0084 +149 +106 144048 049 029 004 00
$$
;

64 kt SFMR is flagged.
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#2291 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 6:30 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 142327
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 36 20110914
231730 2733N 06806W 8274 01708 0080 +153 +107 141049 050 031 005 00
231800 2732N 06807W 8271 01710 0079 +152 +108 138046 047 033 007 03
231830 2731N 06808W 8283 01696 0086 +142 +109 140045 045 034 007 00
231900 2729N 06809W 8268 01712 0082 +144 +109 136043 044 032 007 00
231930 2728N 06811W 8270 01705 0080 +145 +107 132041 042 035 007 00
232000 2727N 06812W 8275 01699 0085 +135 +104 124040 042 034 008 00
232030 2726N 06813W 8272 01703 0085 +136 +102 132042 044 033 008 00
232100 2725N 06815W 8269 01703 0078 +143 +100 137047 048 036 006 00
232130 2724N 06816W 8282 01691 0073 +148 +100 139051 053 037 005 00
232200 2723N 06817W 8270 01702 0069 +150 +100 140048 049 036 002 00
232230 2722N 06818W 8271 01696 0072 +141 +102 138049 051 037 007 00
232300 2721N 06820W 8278 01688 0066 +149 +103 138050 051 034 007 00
232330 2719N 06821W 8272 01693 0069 +141 +103 136049 051 036 010 00
232400 2718N 06822W 8274 01688 0070 +135 +104 137049 050 039 012 00
232430 2717N 06823W 8274 01687 0069 +135 +104 134047 050 041 015 00
232500 2716N 06825W 8264 01692 0064 +136 +103 137049 051 041 012 00
232530 2715N 06826W 8279 01676 0059 +143 +103 142045 049 042 011 00
232600 2714N 06827W 8274 01680 0058 +139 +103 138047 050 040 011 00
232630 2713N 06828W 8264 01688 0060 +133 +103 136045 049 040 015 00
232700 2712N 06829W 8283 01664 0052 +141 +103 139035 040 041 012 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2292 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 6:41 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 142337
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 37 20110914
232730 2711N 06831W 8269 01680 0045 +149 +104 155030 034 042 012 00
232800 2709N 06832W 8275 01669 0034 +158 +104 153029 031 042 010 00
232830 2708N 06833W 8279 01666 0040 +151 +105 149031 031 053 014 00
232900 2707N 06834W 8280 01665 0041 +149 +106 156027 029 060 030 03
232930 2706N 06836W 8290 01651 0037 +146 +108 154031 035 058 040 00
233000 2705N 06837W 8259 01682 0038 +144 +111 147031 035 046 050 00
233030 2704N 06838W 8271 01663 0033 +144 +114 144032 038 033 055 00
233100 2703N 06839W 8304 01637 0039 +138 +117 136007 014 049 027 03
233130 2702N 06841W 8250 01692 0027 +157 +118 186013 016 035 011 03
233200 2701N 06842W 8273 01663 0023 +160 +118 181014 015 025 009 03
233230 2701N 06844W 8281 01653 0018 +165 +119 195013 014 020 008 03
233300 2701N 06846W 8261 01671 0010 +176 +119 200013 014 020 004 03
233330 2702N 06848W 8282 01651 0007 +180 +121 193012 013 020 001 03
233400 2703N 06849W 8268 01665 0003 +182 +123 171008 009 022 002 03
233430 2703N 06851W 8271 01662 0002 +186 +127 141004 006 023 002 03
233500 2703N 06853W 8273 01660 0007 +181 +131 092003 003 022 003 00
233530 2703N 06855W 8281 01654 0002 +189 +136 053008 013 022 002 00
233600 2703N 06857W 8266 01669 0004 +186 +139 053015 018 028 001 00
233630 2703N 06859W 8281 01656 0006 +185 +143 054019 019 030 002 00
233700 2703N 06901W 8270 01670 0011 +178 +146 054021 022 032 002 00
$$

58 kt SFMR, pressure 1000mb. Someone else please take over.
;
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories

#2293 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:00 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011

...MARIA STRENGTHENS...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 68.9W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS WEST OF BERMUDA ON THURSDAY MORNING. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON
THURSDAY. A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS
999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2294 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:00 pm

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON
THURSDAY.
A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2295 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:04 pm

URNT15 KNHC 142357
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 39 20110914
234730 2635N 06922W 8272 01682 0010 +204 +177 318021 021 010 001 00
234800 2634N 06924W 8094 01856 9999 +192 +176 312021 023 /// /// 03
234830 2634N 06925W 7666 02319 9986 +173 //// 300021 021 /// /// 05
234900 2635N 06926W 7367 02664 9986 +155 //// 295021 021 /// /// 05
234930 2636N 06928W 7111 02973 //// +138 //// 313021 021 /// /// 05
235000 2636N 06929W 6821 03324 //// +115 //// 314021 022 /// /// 05
235030 2637N 06931W 6582 03613 //// +092 //// 314018 019 /// /// 05
235100 2638N 06932W 6369 03886 //// +069 //// 319017 017 /// /// 05
235130 2639N 06934W 6163 04156 //// +053 //// 325014 015 /// /// 05
235200 2640N 06935W 5970 04411 //// +036 //// 293011 012 /// /// 05
235230 2641N 06937W 5788 04668 //// +024 //// 297013 014 /// /// 05
235300 2642N 06938W 5596 04942 //// +016 //// 307017 019 /// /// 05
235330 2643N 06940W 5423 05197 0221 +003 //// 309020 020 017 001 05
235400 2644N 06942W 5270 05425 0240 -014 //// 302021 021 019 000 01
235430 2645N 06943W 5121 05647 0255 -029 //// 298018 019 019 000 01
235500 2646N 06945W 4977 05873 0269 -048 //// 302017 018 018 001 01
235530 2647N 06946W 4840 06092 0283 -066 //// 307017 017 018 001 01
235600 2648N 06948W 4711 06303 0296 -078 //// 303015 015 018 001 01
235630 2649N 06950W 4612 06468 0308 -087 //// 313015 016 014 002 01
235700 2650N 06952W 4507 06648 0319 -097 //// 313014 014 013 001 01
$$
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#2296 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:30 pm

It seems reasonable on winds alone, but I would want to see a better structure.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2297 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:38 pm

URNT12 KNHC 150022
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 14/23:34:40Z
B. 27 deg 03 min N
068 deg 51 min W
C. 850 mb 1429 m
D. 42 kt
E. 064 deg 26 nm
F. 139 deg 52 kt
G. 060 deg 37 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 15 C / 1670 m
J. 19 C / 1679 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF305 0714A MARIA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 73 KT E QUAD 22:30:00Z
;

URNT15 KNHC 150007
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 40 20110914
235730 2651N 06953W 4400 06833 0331 -109 //// 305014 014 011 001 01
235800 2652N 06955W 4304 07006 0346 -121 //// 306012 012 009 001 01
235830 2653N 06957W 4226 07147 0356 -132 //// 309013 013 013 000 01
235900 2654N 06959W 4136 07310 0365 -141 //// 301014 015 008 001 01
235930 2655N 07001W 4053 07477 0381 -150 //// 293013 013 011 001 01
000000 2656N 07002W 3982 07610 0393 -159 //// 283013 014 008 001 05
000030 2657N 07004W 3907 07748 0401 -168 //// 270015 015 008 001 01
000100 2658N 07006W 3843 07872 0408 -176 //// 265011 013 008 001 01
000130 2659N 07008W 3786 07988 0417 -183 //// 263008 009 008 001 01
000200 2701N 07010W 3727 08101 0424 -189 //// 243006 007 010 001 01
000230 2702N 07012W 3666 08228 0430 -202 //// 251007 009 008 002 01
000300 2703N 07014W 3605 08348 0437 -214 //// 252014 015 007 002 01
000330 2704N 07016W 3590 08380 0439 -216 //// 252016 017 008 001 01
000400 2705N 07018W 3597 08365 0438 -217 //// 247016 018 010 000 01
000430 2707N 07020W 3591 08376 0438 -210 //// 243021 022 006 001 05
000500 2708N 07023W 3591 08375 0438 -205 //// 241023 023 008 001 01
000530 2709N 07025W 3597 08364 0438 -200 //// 236023 023 007 001 01
000600 2711N 07028W 3593 08375 0438 -200 //// 232022 022 006 002 05
000630 2712N 07030W 3593 08371 0438 -200 //// 229021 022 007 002 05
000700 2714N 07033W 3594 08370 0437 -200 //// 225019 020 006 001 01
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 150017
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 41 20110915
000730 2715N 07035W 3593 08371 0437 -200 //// 222018 019 010 001 01
000800 2717N 07038W 3593 08370 0436 -200 //// 222019 020 005 001 01
000830 2718N 07040W 3593 08370 0435 -200 //// 224020 021 006 001 01
000900 2720N 07043W 3591 08372 0436 -200 //// 220020 020 006 001 01
000930 2721N 07045W 3593 08369 0436 -200 //// 216021 021 006 002 01
001000 2722N 07047W 3593 08369 0435 -201 //// 211020 021 006 001 01
001030 2724N 07050W 3591 08371 0436 -205 //// 204019 020 005 002 01
001100 2725N 07053W 3594 08370 0438 -205 //// 207019 019 011 000 01
001130 2727N 07055W 3591 08374 0438 -206 //// 206019 019 009 001 01
001200 2728N 07058W 3593 08371 0438 -207 //// 205020 020 008 001 01
001230 2730N 07100W 3591 08374 0438 -205 //// 206020 021 008 001 01
001300 2731N 07103W 3594 08371 0438 -205 //// 204021 021 012 000 01
001330 2733N 07105W 3593 08371 0438 -205 //// 199021 022 006 001 01
001400 2734N 07108W 3593 08373 0437 -205 //// 196021 021 007 001 01
001430 2735N 07111W 3593 08370 0436 -209 //// 198022 022 007 001 01
001500 2737N 07113W 3593 08370 0436 -208 //// 196023 023 011 001 01
001530 2738N 07116W 3592 08371 0436 -209 //// 197023 023 009 002 01
001600 2739N 07119W 3593 08369 0435 -211 //// 198022 022 012 000 01
001630 2741N 07121W 3593 08369 0435 -214 //// 199022 022 016 001 01
001700 2742N 07124W 3591 08370 0435 -215 //// 198022 022 015 000 01
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 150027
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 42 20110915
001730 2744N 07126W 3593 08369 0434 -218 //// 194021 022 016 000 01
001800 2745N 07129W 3594 08367 0434 -218 //// 192022 022 015 001 01
001830 2746N 07132W 3593 08368 0433 -220 //// 188022 023 011 001 01
001900 2748N 07134W 3593 08369 0434 -220 //// 190022 022 007 001 01
001930 2749N 07137W 3593 08368 0433 -219 //// 188020 021 012 000 01
002000 2750N 07140W 3593 08368 0434 -220 //// 191020 020 007 001 01
002030 2752N 07142W 3593 08368 0433 -220 //// 190019 020 005 002 01
002100 2753N 07145W 3593 08368 0433 -220 //// 191018 019 006 000 01
002130 2754N 07148W 3593 08366 0432 -224 //// 195018 018 007 001 01
002200 2756N 07150W 3593 08367 0432 -225 //// 195018 019 006 001 01
002230 2757N 07153W 3592 08367 0432 -225 //// 196016 018 008 001 01
002300 2758N 07156W 3593 08367 0433 -226 //// 203016 017 009 001 01
002330 2800N 07158W 3593 08367 0433 -230 //// 205020 021 013 001 01
002400 2801N 07201W 3593 08367 0432 -230 //// 198021 022 014 000 01
002430 2802N 07204W 3593 08367 0431 -229 //// 199021 022 008 002 01
002500 2804N 07206W 3593 08364 0431 -230 //// 207022 023 008 002 01
002530 2805N 07209W 3593 08364 0430 -231 //// 206023 023 005 000 05
002600 2806N 07211W 3593 08363 0429 -235 //// 206022 023 006 001 01
002630 2808N 07214W 3594 08361 0428 -235 //// 207022 023 007 001 01
002700 2809N 07217W 3592 08363 0428 -234 //// 207022 022 003 001 01
$$
;

Mission Over.

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2298 Postby HurrMark » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:32 pm

Structure looks much better...I would guess it would become a Hurricane by tomorrow. After four or five times on life support, that's pretty good...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories

#2299 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA BY EARLY
THURSDAY AS MARIA APPROACHES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 68.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS WEST OF BERMUDA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...AND MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. A WEAKENING
TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
MARIA A FEW HOURS AGO FOUND PEAK SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 56
KT AND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT. LEANING A LITTLE
MORE TOWARD THE SFMR DATA...THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PREDICTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG...AND THE SEA
SURFACE DOES NOT COOL SIGNIFICANTLY...UNTIL ABOUT 36 HOURS. MARIA
HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST LGEM RUN. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR
IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. MARIA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS AS GLOBAL
MODEL OUTPUT DEPICTS THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY
THAT TIME.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE A MOTION SLIGHTLY EAST OF
NORTH AT AROUND 16 KT. MARIA IS MOVING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CONTINUED
ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE GFS MODEL
TRACK. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 28.0N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 31.3N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 36.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 41.8N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 48.0N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2300 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:37 pm

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA BY EARLY
THURSDAY AS MARIA APPROACHES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 68.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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