ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[jhpigott]

check out the difference in the nam synoptics from the 6z to the 12z.. it now leaves LEE behind and pushing him south back into the gulf which allows ridigng to build off the east coast. turning katia west again. vs the 6z where lee was pulled ne with the shortwave

6z
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... ageSize=Me.


12z
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Looks like that was what the 12z NOGAPS did as well . . . unless that is a new system in the southern gulf

[supercane]

Latest 12Z run of GFS shows earlier 06Z run to be an anomaly, with the 12Z joining earlier runs in taking Katia out to sea:

[hurricaneCW]

This is all still beyond 5 days so things could change, ultimately a lot of what happens is going to have to involve what Lee does, where he goes could be a huge indicator as to how far west Katia goes. At most we will probably get some high surf and more coastal erosion/damage.

[Aric Dunn]

look at the left shift if the gfdl and hwrf... that is a big shift by the hwrf


http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=12

go to last to frames.

[Aric Dunn]

euro back on a westerly motion again.. more ridging.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[gatorcane]

yeah seems to be heading more WNW and gaining less lattitude, could the UKMET be on to something?

Looking at the visibles, seems like ridging is building to the north now as the trough pulls out of the Western Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

euro back on a westerly motion again.. more ridging. looks like it ends up leaving lee behind allowing the ridge to build in.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[gatorcane]

euro back on a westerly motion again.. more ridging. looks like it ends up leaving lee behind allowing the ridge to build in.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Wow another pretty decent shift west by the Euro, showing even some due West motion again for a couple of days.

Some of these models are having a hard time with how Lee evolves.

The ECMWF is definitely having a difficult time making a decision on that.

Notice how this time Lee ends up NOT connectiong with the upper-trough swinging through SE Canada.

That causes less trough amplification and more ridging to build into the Western Atlantic inducing a more west motion.

[CrazyC83]

No matter what it appears Katia will not be a fish.

[supercane]

Latest SAB Dvorak estimates do support the notion of less NW motion, but would also favor downgrading this to a TS:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1745 UTC 19.9N 55.9W T3.5/3.5 KATIA
03/1145 UTC 19.6N 55.0W T3.5/4.0 KATIA
03/0615 UTC 19.0N 54.6W T3.5/4.0 KATIA
A microwave image would be helpful about now.

[Aric Dunn]

euro back on a westerly motion again.. more ridging. looks like it ends up leaving lee behind allowing the ridge to build in.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Wow another pretty decent shift west by the Euro, showing even some due West motion again for a couple of days.

Some of these models are having a hard time with how Lee evolves.

The ECMWF is definitely having a difficult time making a decision on that.

Notice how this time Lee ends up NOT connectiong with the upper-trough swinging through SE Canada.

That causes less trough amplification and more ridging to build into the Western Atlantic inducing a more west motion.

would say thats a huge shift... lol
by 120 hours with the 00z it was moving N of bermuda... 12z run its moving west...nearing the SE

[Aric Dunn]

yeah seems to be heading more WNW and gaining less lattitude, could the UKMET be on to something?

Looking at the visibles, seems like ridging is building to the north now as the trough pulls out of the Western Atlantic

yeah you notice easterly surge again... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html


also looking at wv the mid to upper low off NC is ever so slowly dropping SW seems riding is build nw of it... its supposed to move out to the NE...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

very close pass the NC ... maybe heading up to the New england ?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[maxintensity]

puzzling flip from euro. It's usually stubbornly consistent.

[Aric Dunn]

UKMET shift way east while everything else shift way left.. lol models are having some issues still.

[BigA]

12Z CMC: Hurricane Katia aims directly at southern New England



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[cpdaman]

past day 4.5 euro flip flops like a politician

inside that it's king euro

but i would say since Aric got back the west shifts have come back.

ANYONE see the 12z nam lol

[hurricaneCW]

Katia still needs to be watched closely because from some of those models, she might get a little too close for comfort.

[Aric Dunn]

past day 4.5 euro flip flops like a politician

inside that it's king euro

but i would say since Aric got back the west shifts have come back.

ANYONE see the 12z nam lol

yeah posted why it did that in the discussion thread.
and the west turn with the euro is within that 4.5 days

[BigA]

Halifax gets it pretty bad in the 12Z Euro, and possibly hurricane force wind gusts on Cape Cod.

Bottom line from the 12Z model runs: Way to early for the east coast, especially NC northward, to stop watching this storm.