ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFLTropics]

I agree....I don"t see much of a threat at this particular time. Tks!

I hate to burst your bubble but the threat to puerto rico is still very real at this time. The difference between this landfalling in the DR, PR, or shooting the gap between is not a lot of distance, and a small jog could put it in any of these areas at random. Obviously nothing to freak out about yet, but just dont let your guard down.

Agree 100%. Even if the center doesn't move over Puerto Rico,for sure it will bring plenty of rain that we dont need as the grounds are saturated from the record rainfall of May,June and July. The best thing to do is to prepare for the worse and hope for the best. In reallity,the threat to PR is still there as long is east of our longitud.

I most certainly agree with Luis assessment of the situation. To clarify my previous post, AT THE CURRENT TIME I don't believe that the center of 91L will pass over PR, but rather underneath it. With that being said it still has the potential to cause a disastrous situation with heavy rainfall on an already saturated ground. Mudslides could pose a significant threat to life and property.

SFT

[painkillerr]

I agree....I don"t see much of a threat at this particular time. Tks!

I hate to burst your bubble but the threat to puerto rico is still very real at this time. The difference between this landfalling in the DR, PR, or shooting the gap between is not a lot of distance, and a small jog could put it in any of these areas at random. Obviously nothing to freak out about yet, but just dont let your guard down.

Agree 100%. Even if the center doesn't move over Puerto Rico,for sure it will bring plenty of rain that we dont need as the grounds are saturated from the record rainfall of May,June and July. The best thing to do is to prepare for the worse and hope for the best. In reallity,the threat to PR is still there as long is east of our longitud.

Well for sure I'm expecting heavy rainfall, the system is too broad to miss PR altogether. And you're right cycloneye, we don't need more rainfall. I'm more focused on intensity and track. This has the making of a system that can surprise us at the very last moment. Locals here are beginning to downplay it. That is mostly my concern.

[cycloneye]

Locals here are beginning to downplay it

They better not do that because until it passses our 66-67 west longitudes,we are not out of the woods.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS in now coming in

[painkillerr]

Locals here are beginning to downplay it

They better not do that because until it passses our 66-67 west longitudes,we are not out of the woods.

I agree.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection starting to build near where the low level vort was earlier.. and convection is much more concentrated and expanding.. should not be long now..

[SunnyThoughts]

I agree Aric, I think she's finally getting her act together.

[stormreader]

FWIW, 18Z Nogaps into the Gulf with landfall near Pensacola...More importantly the trend...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

This was a scenario which I posted about briefly late this afternoon. That is that general troughiness (mentioned by KWT) would be felt by this system. But nothing strong enough to cause the distinct turn north until further west. I thought S Fl and the Keys to possibly feel first effects before the more distinct north turn in the E GOM and then up toward the Fl Panhandle. Of course this is only the opinion of an amateur.

[SunnyThoughts]

Anything yet from the GFS? Did it initialize fairly close to where our estimated center is?

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS 00z: More west through 42 hours:

00z at 42: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif
18z at 48: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Anything yet from the GFS? Did it initialize fairly close to where our estimated center is?

about the same.. but its SW of 18z postion still heading west at 42 hours.

[Swimdude]

Anyone else watching the feature at 14.8N / 54.8W?

[painkillerr]

I agree Aric, I think she's finally getting her act together.

It's about time!

[HurricaneWarning92]

That would lead to another possible slight shift to the west.

[SouthDadeFish]

Seems weaker this run.

[Evil Jeremy]

00z 54: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif
18z 60: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

Still more west.

[chrisjslucia]

Locals here are beginning to downplay it

They better not do that because until it passses our 66-67 west longitudes,we are not out of the woods.

I agree.

Well it is understandable. Locally, after people looked at or heard about the Radar early afternoon and the sat images of the western section passing over us and then 30 minutes of rain and then NOTHING, people have begun to assume that was it - Monday is a holiday so, let's party. I certainly began to wonder if this was all a case of the Emperor's New Clothes, that we'd all spent so long looking for Emily, she had to be there regardless.

I found the Crown Weather update of this evening / late afternoon really helpful in getting a handle on what's happening. This is the link:

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6572

And thinking about it, the forecast was always for an event sometime Monday 1st / Tuesday 2nd for the Windwards / Leewards - which is about where we are heading for currently. If the elongation and shift West has reduced the intensity we have to deal with here, then for us that is a good thing. People have been discussing the fact that we are now on the cusp of Hurricane Allen's anniversary, 31 years ago August 1st. But hey, Emily's not that kind of a girl - is she?

[Aric Dunn]

54 hours .. weaker but with more ridging to the north than the 18z run..

00z



18z

[ozonepete]

Anyone else watching the feature at 14.8N / 54.8W?

That's what we're all watching.

[Evil Jeremy]

Moving below Hispaniola at 72, really SW of the 18z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif