ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Vortex]

12ECM looks reasonable...

I think WNW initially then a brief slowdown turn wnw/nw late Monday around DR as the trough exerts some influence for 12-24. A shot at intensification just barely north of eastern cuba/FL straits maybe to TS/Min cat 1 with a turn back wnw/w as ridging reloads...Long-term after grazing south FL/keys I think its Texas bound....

[Blown Away]

IMO, it's all about that trough that is going to provide some heat relief to the NE. It was supposed to draw 90L far enough N to cross SFL or go up the EC, but recent models suggest that trough won't be as strong which keeps 90L more W w/ a slight tug N in a couple days.

[Nikki]

I don't post here much, but before the season gets crazy I just want to tell everyone Thanks for all you do! I will continue to be watching the thread and tropics! We do need rain here in SE Texas, but I like everyone else, do not want a repeat of Ike!

[Blown Away]

I don't know about everybody else, I'm ready for some 00z models???

[Florida1118]

I don't know about everybody else, I'm ready for some 00z models???

Should be enjoyable to say the least

[BigB0882]

I am excited but only if they initialize better than they have been.

[NDG]

They are late with the 00z tropical models run.

[Ivanhater]

[NDG]

So I guess no 00z trop models run tonight.

[BigB0882]

Would they skip them? Must just be late for some reason.

[NDG]

So I guess no tropical models run tonight, weird.

A gain in latitude should happen in the short term as a weakness develops along the east coast Sunday through Tuesday, after Tuesday the ridge is forecasted to build back in so a more westward track should start back up by then. The question that I have is how much latitude it gains & how fast, the answer has to do with how much strength it gains in the short term along with any land interaction, more gain in latitude in the short term could be a threat to at least southern FL by the middle of next week. From there I don't see it moving straight west to TX, it could come awfully close to the central gulf coast, but I would rather not put it on stone as models struggle as we get close to a 5-7 day range sypnotic set up forecast.

[NDG]

Would they skip them? Must just be late for some reason.

Not unusual when we have a weak tropical wave to skip one, but this time I don't know why.

[Frank P]

Core of the most active weather looks to be below 15 deg lat... could be setting up for a most interesting week coming up....

[cycloneye]

Very late but here is the 00z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2011072300, , BEST, 0, 142N, 580W, 25, 1012, DB

NDG, check the models thread.

[cycloneye]

00z Models

Here they are.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 230143
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0143 UTC SAT JUL 23 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110723 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110723  0000   110723  1200   110724  0000   110724  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N  58.0W   15.2N  61.4W   16.6N  65.0W   17.9N  68.7W
BAMD    14.2N  58.0W   15.0N  61.1W   15.7N  63.9W   16.6N  66.6W
BAMM    14.2N  58.0W   15.0N  61.0W   15.9N  64.1W   17.0N  67.1W
LBAR    14.2N  58.0W   14.8N  61.3W   15.6N  64.7W   16.2N  67.9W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110725  0000   110726  0000   110727  0000   110728  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.1N  72.4W   20.9N  78.7W   22.4N  82.8W   24.6N  85.3W
BAMD    17.5N  69.1W   19.1N  73.2W   21.0N  76.4W   23.2N  79.9W
BAMM    18.1N  69.8W   19.9N  74.5W   21.8N  78.1W   24.5N  81.1W
LBAR    17.0N  70.8W   18.9N  74.8W   21.7N  76.6W   24.9N  77.7W
SHIP        54KTS          61KTS          65KTS          71KTS
DSHP        54KTS          42KTS          30KTS          38KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.2N LONCUR =  58.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  13.8N LONM12 =  54.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  51.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


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[TheBurn]

[ROCK]

just flip flopping as expected....get a good LLC going and then lets see what they do...

if it does develop and goes under the islands the islands and someone along the gulf coast is going to get hammered. all depends on land interaction as it heads this way. It will be traversing the hottest waters in the basin if it goes under them...

[South Texas Storms]

Rock are you concerned about this system? I think it might be TX bound.

[Gustywind]

[ROCK]

Rock are you concerned about this system? I think it might be TX bound.

I dont get concerns until I see something develop...right now we have a strong tropical wave with some model support. Who knows where the LLC sets up shop. Until that time the models just gives us an idea....

trust me, I will let you know when its time to hunker down...