This is the forecast steering map for a TD or TS as indicated by the GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC.
At this moment it looks like the chances of 98l of being Gulf bound are slim.
ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion
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Rgv20
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The 0z forecast steering by Monday afternoon would suggest a slow NNE movement.
This is the forecast steering map for a TD or TS as indicated by the GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC.
At this moment it looks like the chances of 98l of being Gulf bound are slim.
This is the forecast steering map for a TD or TS as indicated by the GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC.
At this moment it looks like the chances of 98l of being Gulf bound are slim.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Rgv20
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Getting that nice shrimp look Ivan 
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Dave
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Got it...
000
URNT15 KNHC 171725
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 10 20110717
171230 2807N 08426W 3759 08078 0458 -200 //// 016010 010 /// /// 05
171300 2807N 08423W 3759 08078 0458 -200 //// 012011 012 /// /// 05
171330 2807N 08420W 3758 08079 0458 -200 //// 008010 011 /// /// 05
171400 2807N 08417W 3759 08078 0458 -200 //// 007011 011 /// /// 05
171430 2807N 08414W 3759 08078 0458 -200 //// 009010 010 /// /// 05
171500 2807N 08411W 3759 08080 0459 -200 //// 010009 009 /// /// 05
171530 2807N 08409W 3758 08081 0460 -200 //// 006009 010 /// /// 05
171600 2807N 08406W 3759 08080 0460 -200 //// 006010 010 /// /// 05
171630 2807N 08403W 3759 08080 0460 -200 //// 007010 011 /// /// 05
171700 2807N 08400W 3759 08080 0459 -199 //// 003010 011 /// /// 05
171730 2807N 08357W 3759 08080 0459 -195 //// 357012 012 /// /// 05
171800 2807N 08355W 3762 08074 0459 -195 //// 354013 013 /// /// 05
171830 2807N 08352W 3759 08079 0459 -195 //// 354013 013 /// /// 05
171900 2807N 08349W 3759 08079 0459 -195 //// 359012 012 /// /// 05
171930 2807N 08346W 3759 08079 0459 -195 //// 001011 011 /// /// 05
172000 2807N 08343W 3759 08079 0459 -195 //// 355013 013 /// /// 05
172030 2807N 08341W 3759 08078 0458 -194 //// 353013 014 /// /// 05
172100 2807N 08338W 3759 08078 0458 -195 //// 359012 013 /// /// 05
172130 2807N 08335W 3758 08079 0457 -195 //// 004011 012 /// /// 05
172200 2807N 08332W 3759 08076 0457 -195 //// 001012 012 /// /// 05
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 171725
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 10 20110717
171230 2807N 08426W 3759 08078 0458 -200 //// 016010 010 /// /// 05
171300 2807N 08423W 3759 08078 0458 -200 //// 012011 012 /// /// 05
171330 2807N 08420W 3758 08079 0458 -200 //// 008010 011 /// /// 05
171400 2807N 08417W 3759 08078 0458 -200 //// 007011 011 /// /// 05
171430 2807N 08414W 3759 08078 0458 -200 //// 009010 010 /// /// 05
171500 2807N 08411W 3759 08080 0459 -200 //// 010009 009 /// /// 05
171530 2807N 08409W 3758 08081 0460 -200 //// 006009 010 /// /// 05
171600 2807N 08406W 3759 08080 0460 -200 //// 006010 010 /// /// 05
171630 2807N 08403W 3759 08080 0460 -200 //// 007010 011 /// /// 05
171700 2807N 08400W 3759 08080 0459 -199 //// 003010 011 /// /// 05
171730 2807N 08357W 3759 08080 0459 -195 //// 357012 012 /// /// 05
171800 2807N 08355W 3762 08074 0459 -195 //// 354013 013 /// /// 05
171830 2807N 08352W 3759 08079 0459 -195 //// 354013 013 /// /// 05
171900 2807N 08349W 3759 08079 0459 -195 //// 359012 012 /// /// 05
171930 2807N 08346W 3759 08079 0459 -195 //// 001011 011 /// /// 05
172000 2807N 08343W 3759 08079 0459 -195 //// 355013 013 /// /// 05
172030 2807N 08341W 3759 08078 0458 -194 //// 353013 014 /// /// 05
172100 2807N 08338W 3759 08078 0458 -195 //// 359012 013 /// /// 05
172130 2807N 08335W 3758 08079 0457 -195 //// 004011 012 /// /// 05
172200 2807N 08332W 3759 08076 0457 -195 //// 001012 012 /// /// 05
$$
;
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vacanechaser
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Re:
Rgv20 wrote:Getting that nice shrimp look Ivan
reminds me a little of what katrina looked like after she crossed florida.. had that same shape and look...
of course not saying this is that kinda of system.. just figured i would clear that up right now!! lol... looks good though
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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lester
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Might have to eat some of my southern fried crow for this..wow
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Latest ASCAT got only the western end.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
G'afternoon, I'm enjoying the discussion & analysis from everyone -- the board is hopping today!
98L looks like it's starting to get that drawn-out comma shape. Very interested to see the 2pm update. When is recon going?
98L looks like it's starting to get that drawn-out comma shape. Very interested to see the 2pm update. When is recon going?
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
WxEnthus wrote:G'afternoon, I'm enjoying the discussion & analysis from everyone -- the board is hopping today!
98L looks like it's starting to get that drawn-out comma shape. Very interested to see the 2pm update. When is recon going?
Plane is on it's way towards the system now.Follow the observations on the Recon thread.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111183&p=2138489#p2138489
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northjaxpro
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Dry air is being pulled all the way down to the Central FL peninsula at the current time. This is showing up very prominently on water vapor imagery. This could pose a problem to 98L in terms of organizing as it appears that the dry air may get entrained into the circulation and retard it in time.
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Rgv20
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
WxEnthus wrote:G'afternoon, I'm enjoying the discussion & analysis from everyone -- the board is hopping today!
98L looks like it's starting to get that drawn-out comma shape. Very interested to see the 2pm update. When is recon going?
The plane is reaching the west coast of Florida.
There is a recon thread here http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111183
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brunota2003
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
It looks nice on visible, yes...but look at IR. There is next to no strong convection there! If the convection stays that weak, I do not think we'll see an upgrade.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
40%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES LITTLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES LITTLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
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Dave
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000
URNT15 KNHC 171733
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 11 20110717
172230 2807N 08329W 3758 08080 0459 -200 //// 348012 012 /// /// 05
172300 2807N 08326W 3759 08081 0460 -200 //// 349011 011 /// /// 05
172330 2807N 08324W 3759 08079 0460 -200 //// 350011 011 /// /// 05
172400 2807N 08321W 3758 08080 0459 -200 //// 347009 010 /// /// 05
172430 2807N 08318W 3758 08080 0459 -200 //// 349011 011 /// /// 05
172500 2807N 08315W 3758 08084 0459 -196 //// 354011 011 /// /// 05
172530 2806N 08312W 3755 08085 0459 -200 //// 348010 010 /// /// 05
172600 2806N 08309W 3763 08070 0459 -200 //// 343010 011 /// /// 05
172630 2806N 08307W 3758 08081 0460 -200 //// 339010 011 /// /// 05
172700 2806N 08304W 3759 08081 0461 -201 //// 332010 010 /// /// 05
172730 2806N 08301W 3758 08084 0461 -202 //// 330010 010 /// /// 05
172800 2806N 08258W 3763 08071 0460 -205 //// 326009 009 /// /// 05
172830 2806N 08255W 3759 08081 0461 -205 //// 327009 009 /// /// 05
172900 2806N 08252W 3758 08081 0460 -205 //// 330008 009 /// /// 05
172930 2806N 08249W 3759 08080 0460 -205 //// 340006 007 /// /// 05
173000 2806N 08247W 3759 08080 0460 -205 //// 333006 006 /// /// 05
173030 2806N 08244W 3758 08081 0460 -205 //// 325006 006 /// /// 05
173100 2806N 08241W 3760 08081 0461 -204 //// 321006 007 /// /// 05
173130 2806N 08238W 3759 08081 0461 -205 //// 325005 005 /// /// 05
173200 2806N 08235W 3758 08084 0461 -205 //// 326005 006 /// /// 05
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 171733
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 11 20110717
172230 2807N 08329W 3758 08080 0459 -200 //// 348012 012 /// /// 05
172300 2807N 08326W 3759 08081 0460 -200 //// 349011 011 /// /// 05
172330 2807N 08324W 3759 08079 0460 -200 //// 350011 011 /// /// 05
172400 2807N 08321W 3758 08080 0459 -200 //// 347009 010 /// /// 05
172430 2807N 08318W 3758 08080 0459 -200 //// 349011 011 /// /// 05
172500 2807N 08315W 3758 08084 0459 -196 //// 354011 011 /// /// 05
172530 2806N 08312W 3755 08085 0459 -200 //// 348010 010 /// /// 05
172600 2806N 08309W 3763 08070 0459 -200 //// 343010 011 /// /// 05
172630 2806N 08307W 3758 08081 0460 -200 //// 339010 011 /// /// 05
172700 2806N 08304W 3759 08081 0461 -201 //// 332010 010 /// /// 05
172730 2806N 08301W 3758 08084 0461 -202 //// 330010 010 /// /// 05
172800 2806N 08258W 3763 08071 0460 -205 //// 326009 009 /// /// 05
172830 2806N 08255W 3759 08081 0461 -205 //// 327009 009 /// /// 05
172900 2806N 08252W 3758 08081 0460 -205 //// 330008 009 /// /// 05
172930 2806N 08249W 3759 08080 0460 -205 //// 340006 007 /// /// 05
173000 2806N 08247W 3759 08080 0460 -205 //// 333006 006 /// /// 05
173030 2806N 08244W 3758 08081 0460 -205 //// 325006 006 /// /// 05
173100 2806N 08241W 3760 08081 0461 -204 //// 321006 007 /// /// 05
173130 2806N 08238W 3759 08081 0461 -205 //// 325005 005 /// /// 05
173200 2806N 08235W 3758 08084 0461 -205 //// 326005 006 /// /// 05
$$
;
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