ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFLTropics]

A trip between Cuba and Haiti with a verrrrrrry slow approach to the SE Florida coast is my thinking of what the NAM is hinting at. Steering may collapse.

SFT

On that run I am not sure they system would even make it to Florida.. could slide through the straits.

Or we could be looking at a "sit and spin" scenario between the Keys and the Bahamas...Not something I like to think about!

SFT

[RL3AO]

Is it starting to look more likely that this will enter the GOM?

Looking more and more like Mexico/Central America is a possible option.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm not going to get carried away with one run of the NAM...I mean it is the NAM after all. If I see the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and everyone's favorite "THE MIGHTY EURO" get onboard then I'll give this run some additional credence.

Just remember folks, it's only the first quarter, it's first and 10, and there's alot of ballgame left. Many things can and will change...but as we always say, "the trend is your friend"...or sometimes your enemy.

SFT

[cheezyWXguy]

I agree....I don"t see much of a threat at this particular time. Tks!

I hate to burst your bubble but the threat to puerto rico is still very real at this time. The difference between this landfalling in the DR, PR, or shooting the gap between is not a lot of distance, and a small jog could put it in any of these areas at random. Obviously nothing to freak out about yet, but just dont let your guard down.

[Bocadude85]

I wonder if the track could be similar to Cleo's in 1964..



http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6b/Cleo_1964_track.png

[HurricaneWarning92]

Everyone from the Yucatan/Mexico to GOM to the U.S east coast should be watching the system since the trend continues west. That includes Jamaica, Cuba as well. But for now, Florida is the first one to be getting under the gun.

[SouthFLTropics]

I wonder if the track could be similar to Cleo's in 1964..



http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6b/Cleo_1964_track.png

Looks plausible...Don't like it, but it looks plausible.

SFT

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes central America / yucatan has always been an option if it stays as a weak, broad low.

You can see from the NAM, it may just not feel the weakness at all and crash into the yucatan or farther south.

But the weakness that sucks up 91l is farther out than the NAM shows. A deeper system that develops in the Central or Eastern Caribbean should still start a recurve path well east of the SE CONUS as shown by the GFDL and ECMWF.

[SouthFLTropics]

Everyone from the Yucatan/Mexico to GOM to the U.S east coast should be watching the system since the trend continues west. That includes Jamaica, Cuba as well. But for now, Florida is the first one to be getting under the gun.

Actually the first ones under the gun will be the Leewards and Windwards, PR, DR, Haiti, then Jamaica and Cuba...and then MAYBE Florida. As I said in another post...We have a lot of ballgame left to play before we see how this plays out.

SFT

[NDG]

In the past few weeks, whenever a trough pattern has been in place on the east coast the tropical waves have either tracked across southern FL or come really close to S FL.
People in SE FL have to keep an eye on future to be Emily, any slightly stronger ridging that stays in place before it feels the effects of the first trough could make it get closer to SE FL as a weak ridging temporarily places itself over the Carolinas to make her track back to a WNW heading north of the greater Antilles before the second trough comes down by next Sunday.
The good news is that Emily would have to track across the high terrains of Hispaniola or eastern Cuba before it would threaten SE FL.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Javlin]

javelin, question on this point:

but 80W25N-80W20N seems reasonable

referring to a trough/weakness? I'm wondering what the reference is cause that's almost exactly my location...

Just using what happened with Don and that steering currents don't change in general that quick ReCurve.I feel it would have to get that high in Lat to really feel a trof and they have been alittle weak of late;just that time of year.Now does it bark on up to Fl,GA or SC or go straight??Also if it develops well before it hits the Carib I might want to go the 25+N @80W but a TD/low grade TS in the Carib I am going 20N.Have to see my forcasting is still in elementry school

[HurricaneWarning92]

Everyone from the Yucatan/Mexico to GOM to the U.S east coast should be watching the system since the trend continues west. That includes Jamaica, Cuba as well. But for now, Florida is the first one to be getting under the gun.

Actually the first ones under the gun will be the Leewards and Windwards, PR, DR, Haiti, then Jamaica and Cuba...and then MAYBE Florida. As I said in another post...We have a lot of ballgame left to play before we see how this plays out.

SFT

well thats obvious. I meant the first ones "feeling" the effects of the trend westwards would be Florida, since 2 days ago, it showed a recurve well east of Florida.

[underthwx]

is a shift further west possible? seems the system is struggling to get its act together.....possibly a GOM event?

[painkillerr]

I agree....I don"t see much of a threat at this particular time. Tks!

I hate to burst your bubble but the threat to puerto rico is still very real at this time. The difference between this landfalling in the DR, PR, or shooting the gap between is not a lot of distance, and a small jog could put it in any of these areas at random. Obviously nothing to freak out about yet, but just dont let your guard down.

Oh I'm not letting my guard down at all, I can't afford to. However, I've been glued to this forum watching the crazyness of 91L for the past two days. it seemed to me that it would have to turn sharply now in order to impact us and the trend is mostly westward. Anyway, I'll keep watching and waiting (like most here) for 91L to decide what she wants to do or become.

[HurricaneWarning92]

is a shift further west possible? seems the system is struggling to get its act together.....

Of course. The models have been shifting westwards this entire day.

[gatorcane]

In the past few weeks, whenever a trough pattern has been in place on the east coast the tropical waves have either tracked across southern FL or come really close to S FL.
People in SE FL have to keep an eye on future to be Emily, any slightly stronger ridging that stays in place before it feels the effects of the first trough could make it get closer to SE FL as a weak ridging temporarily places itself over the Carolinas to make her track back to a WNW heading north of the greater Antilles before the second trough comes down by next Sunday.
The good news is that Emily would have to track across the high terrains of Hispaniola or eastern Cuba before it would threaten SE FL.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

.

As I have not been very worried about the Leewards and Puerto Rico because I have been forecasting only slow, gradual organization, I am not that worried for SE Florida. I still do not see a pattern that can bring a significant system here, though I a monitoring.

[cycloneye]

I agree....I don"t see much of a threat at this particular time. Tks!

I hate to burst your bubble but the threat to puerto rico is still very real at this time. The difference between this landfalling in the DR, PR, or shooting the gap between is not a lot of distance, and a small jog could put it in any of these areas at random. Obviously nothing to freak out about yet, but just dont let your guard down.

Agree 100%. Even if the center doesn't move over Puerto Rico,for sure it will bring plenty of rain that we dont need as the grounds are saturated from the record rainfall of May,June and July. The best thing to do is to prepare for the worse and hope for the best. In reallity,the threat to PR is still there as long is east of our longitud.

[RL3AO]

is a shift further west possible? seems the system is struggling to get its act together.....possibly a GOM event?

Seems almost impossible for this to enter the gom. If it misses the weakness it will likely move into Central America/Yucatan.

[underthwx]

sorry people....I just logged on did not read yalls posts above me. I read the Miami forecast discussion and I jumped on 2K and started tapping on the keys....sorry

[ozonepete]

Agree 100%. Even if the center doesn't move over Puerto Rico,for sure it will bring plenty of rain that we dont need as the grounds are saturated from the record rainfall of May,June and July. The best thing to do is to prepare for the worse and hope for the best. In reallity,the threat to PR is still there as long is east of our longitud.

Absolutely! As cycloneye knows from experience, there is no way of knowing how a developing system like this could affect you guys. And this one has been especially challenging. I would be watching really carefully until the threat has passed.