ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Really looks like a strong convective center developing rapidly at about 55W 14.5N.

Let's see if it persists ... see what you're talking about.

Yeah, and that center is awfully close to where the stationary weak llc has been located since this afternoon. Its likely close enough to pull it in underneath, and may be in the process of doing that.

yep

[RachelAnna]

With models tracking more and more west as of now, I'm curious as to what will happen if it continues to move west even further into the GOM. Will it defitely recurve into Florida, or could it possibly affect Alabama, MS, or even LA? I know we're dealing with ridging and speculation here, but I am curious as to what happens if this continues to develop very slowly. Any ideas? I know this is a very remote possibility, but I am still learning, and just curious as to what we *could* see if this continues to be so slow in development.

[wzrgirl1]

I having been seeing an interesting effect for the last week with Don and now with 91L.

It appears to me that the generation and lose of an anti-cyclone can be correlation to the D-region absorption of RF energy (1 to 20MHz) of the ionosphere.

This is an effect of higher than normal electron content in the ionosphere which may be do in large part to on-going x-ray flares from the sun.

The heated region of the ionosphere pretty much follows the sun on the surface of the earth.

When the ionosphere is heated locally, electron content is increased and the tropopause is pushed down closer to the earth's surface.

The effect then is to temporarily eliminate the anti-cyclone over a tropical system until the heated region passes.

The following image shows the real-time position of heated region and is indicated by blue shading.

I think this may be the reason that 91L really didn't do anything today.

Will be interesting to see if it spins up tonight.

No offense, but most people really have no idea what this means.....

[AdamFirst]

No offense, but most people really have no idea what this means.....

In short, the sun prevented 91L from developing today. That's his theory.

[SouthFLTropics]

I had to read that a few times to completely understand what was being said but after a few minutes I was able to understand Mr. Spocks thesis...LOL

SFT

[cycloneye]

Look at the progress of all the envelope since this morning.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think we are starting to finally see some consolodation at 14.5N and 55W. It really looks to be starting to wrap everything around that area into it. It is interesting to note all of the flare up from the ITCZ below it. I wonder if that is hampering the engine from cranking up.

SFT

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

NAM

[Aric Dunn]

two areas are nearly on top of each other..

[TwisterFanatic]

I know it's the NAM, but it's WELL west of where the 18z was at 60 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

quite interesting nam run... much stronger ridging

[Aric Dunn]

I know it's the NAM, but it's WELL west of where the 18z was at 60 hours.

its decent with synoptics.. not to thrown out... maybe for track but not the synoptics

[boca]

Is it possible that 91L goes due west into the Yucatan.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

will the models initialize on the newly formed consolidated center now? -and with a strength representative of actual strength, versus a stronger storm? Also, will the flight info be incorporated too?
-Really want to see what the next run looks like.

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

Under PR and DR....

[ozonepete]

I think we are starting to finally see some consolodation at 14.5N and 55W. It really looks to be starting to wrap everything around that area into it. It is interesting to note all of the flare up from the ITCZ below it. I wonder if that is hampering the engine from cranking up.

SFT

Yeah, the ITCZ convection could have been robbing some energy from it, especially as far as preventing stronger moist inflow from the equator side. But the whole problem all along has been that the area of concentrated convection has been too elongated (from east to west) and could not consolidate into one localized center. Seems like that impedance to development may be disappearing.

[SouthFLTropics]

As much as I feel bad for the people of Hispaniola...If future Emily is bound for South Florida it would be best to pass over the big island and the mountains before coming here. At least the circulation would hopefully be disrupted and we wouldn't be looking at a major storm (hopefully). With the models continuing to trend further west it is my fear that this thing will turn to the north and begin the long, sweeping recurve somewhere around Jamaica and come across Central Cuba. I don't believe Central Cuba will do as much to disrupt this as Hispaniola would and we could be looking at a major storm rolling up the spine of the state.

I'm not saying this will happen, nor am I wishing this on the people of Haiti or the DR. They certainly don't even need a rain event from this, but unfortunately for them it looks like they will get some sort of impact.

SFT

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

[HurricaneWarning92]

Is it possible that 91L goes due west into the Yucatan.

Sure. Anything is possible specially that this is taking its time to get going. The more it takes to develop the more westward it gets.

[Aric Dunn]

look at that ridging ..

00z


18z