ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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expat2carib
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#201 Postby expat2carib » Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:26 pm

Thanks!

And thanks wx57 for placing it in context.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#202 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:28 pm

As GCANE says,a hot tower there.

Image
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#203 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:32 pm

Well if its moving towards the west, perhaps the models are gonna shift a bit to the south and west in the future since most of the models, if not all, have it moving towards the wnw at start... just my personal opinion.
Last edited by HurricaneWarning92 on Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#204 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:36 pm

Every track shown below has one undeniable thing in common - if the storm reached 15N east of 50W, it never went on to impact land to the west. If 92L hits 15N before 50W, the only precedence will be for a fish storm.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#205 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:As GCANE says,a hot tower there.



I love hot-towers.

Looks like the center has been re-positioned south of 10N.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2011AL92/4KMSRBDC/2011AL92_4KMSRBDC_201108290045.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL922011&starting_image=2011AL92_4KMSRBDC_201108281645.jpg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#206 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:46 pm

I saw that someone posted some GFS ensembles that showed this around the Carolinas in 10 days. Here's to hoping the opposite doesn't happen with this system as it did with Irene. Remember all the ensembles were showing central gulf 7-10 days out and of course all shifted to the east coast. Could there be a major westward shift in the near future and high builds in and puts this in the gulf this time around. Only time will tell.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#207 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:46 pm

00z Models with ensembles. Saved image.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#208 Postby chrisjslucia » Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:57 pm

"Near 100%" as of the latest NHC advice
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#209 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:03 pm

I wouldnt be suprised if they're writing an advisory right now the way this looks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#210 Postby Zarniwoop » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:04 pm

I think I'm addicted to this forum now. =/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#211 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:05 pm

chrisjslucia wrote:"Near 100%" as of the latest NHC advice

They've been underestimating a bit this year, especially in the 40 to 70% range. Not surprised they jumped high, but I would have expected 90% or so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#212 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:06 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:I wouldnt be suprised if they're writing an advisory right now the way this looks


No renumber yet,but they can classify it at anytime. Maybe,they may wait for first visible images.
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#213 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:09 pm

Looking at the WV loop tonight, there is a lot less dry air across the Mean Development Region now than a few weeks ago when the invests that spawned Emily and Irene were out there.

Shear is quite low as well among other things. This one is a definite "yes" on development as far as I am concerned and probably sooner than later given the nice convection and warm SSTs it has at that low latitude.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#214 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:17 pm

Looking good!
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 281545.GIF
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#215 Postby otowntiger » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:17 pm

And I would guess that none of those had the 'gaping hole' in the Bermuda high that wxman57 speaks of. We have to not only consider that storms that form in this area could affect the U.S. but what conditions in the upper atmosphere forced them this way. Apparently the vast majority of storms that form here re-curve due to an opening in the ridge that we have now.
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#216 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:21 pm

While looking at the dynamic models in the long-range should be taken with a grain of salt, the ECMWF and GFS both showed Irene in the Bahamas over 200 hours out. The ECMWF got the track generally correct with Emily over 8 days out.

What we can deduce from the dynamic models is that the Central Atlantic ridge looks like it will be weaker than normal for the next week at least.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#217 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:22 pm

otowntiger wrote:
And I would guess that none of those had the 'gaping hole' in the Bermuda high that wxman57 speaks of. We have to not only consider that storms that form in this area could affect the U.S. but what conditions in the upper atmosphere forced them this way. Apparently the vast majority of storms that form here re-curve due to an opening in the ridge that we have now.


It is probably too far south to grab that ridge anyway. Also weaker storms stay south?
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#218 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:26 pm

i wouldn't say this is a fish yet, the ensembles have been trending west and i believe IF it does develop it would be a low rider. i would give it another 3 days and see if it comes together and what the models do.
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#219 Postby abajan » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:55 pm

No upgrade at 11. Perhaps sometime tomorrow. Now get some shut eye folks! :lol:
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#220 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2011 10:26 pm

abajan wrote:No upgrade at 11. Perhaps sometime tomorrow. Now get some shut eye folks! :lol:


Seriously! It was a long and crazy weekend for most of us!
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