EPAC: HILARY - Remnants

[Caribwxgirl]

Hi there Hilary

[lilybeth]

Looks like she's forecasted to be much stronger than Ophelia.

[tobol.7uno]

Looks like she's forecasted to be much stronger than Ophelia.

Yes, could be a Cat 2...

[tobol.7uno]

Not going to effect land either.

[bg1]

If this reaches hurricane strength, that will put the season to 8/7/3. The 8 storms will be the second-lowest (after 1977 and, depending on your viewpoint of what constitutes the Eastern Pacific, 2010). However, that will put the hurricane to total storm ratio at 87.5%, the highest ratio ever since 1971. Also, I think 7 hurricanes during a La Nina is above average in # of hurricanes for this basin.

In contrast, in the Atlantic Ocean, the total will likely end up 15/3/2 after Ophelia, a 20% ratio.

[tobol.7uno]

If this reaches hurricane strength, that will put the season to 8/7/3. The 8 storms will be the second-lowest (after 1977 and, depending on your viewpoint of what constitutes the Eastern Pacific, 2010). However, that will put the hurricane to total storm ratio at 87.5%, the highest ratio ever since 1971. Also, I think 7 hurricanes during a La Nina is above average in # of hurricanes for this basin.

In contrast, in the Atlantic Ocean, the total will likely end up 15/3/2 after Ophelia, a 20% ratio.

The Atlantic has had a very hostile environment this year. And it looks very likely that Hillary will be a hurricane, that is an interesting ratio for this year in the east Pacific, I don't normally keep track of the pacific, but I know that is well above average.

[tobol.7uno]

[tobol.7uno]

[Extratropical94]

Is that stuff near the center already one half of an eyewall?

[tobol.7uno]

[tobol.7uno]

[bexar]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.7N 98.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 15.2N 99.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.9N 101.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 16.4N 102.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.9N 104.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.9N 108.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 18.5N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 19.0N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

could become the next Major Hurricane for the EPac.

EPac is quite impressive this year. Quality over quanity as opposed to the boring Atlantic.

I wouldn't be surprised if she could pull a Rick.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[brunota2003]

What is interesting is that this basin has a low number of storms, with a large amount of hurricanes...whereas the Atlantic has a high number of storms and a low number of hurricanes. Correlation? The EPAC has been hostile much of the season, but when conditions allow a storm to form, the conditions are nearly perfect and the storm explodes...whereas the ATL has been hostile to marginal at best, which has allowed a high number of poor storms to form, but conditions don't improve to perfect.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Putting out a rapid intensification outlook for Hillary:

Rapid Intensification is defined as an increase of wind speed of 30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period.

The data I use, CIMSS, is only updated through 0245 UTC (it is currently 1200 UTC), but looking at yesterday's images and todays (through 0245 UTC) plus IR, I believe Hillary has an 80% chance of rapidly intensifying within the next 24 to 30 hours (the early stages very well may have already began, or is beginning right now). IR has been showing signs of an eyelike feature trying to form, and my hook has been present since yesterday afternoon (it appeared around 1900 UTC, or 3 pm EDT). From 5 pm to 11 pm yesterday, winds increased 5 knots. Between 11 pm and 5 am, the winds increased 15 knots (per NHC advisories, times in EDT).

Since first appearing, the hook has been gradually becoming better defined...and coupled with IR images, I predict RI will start this morning or very early afternoon (assuming it has not started already), and continue through tonight. The only big downside is proximity to land, which may prevent the eyewall from closing off entirely. Either way, I believe the 30 knot minimum criteria will be met before or by tomorrow at noon eastern. My best guess, in this case, is 100 knots by 12 pm EDT tomorrow.

[Macrocane]

Yeah, Hilary seems to be intensifying at a good pace this morning, a great comeback for the EPAC after such a big lull.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011

MICROWAVE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE INNER-CORE OF HILARY IS WELL ORGANIZED. A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT AROUND THE SMALL AND NEARLY CIRCULAR EYE.
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY AN
OCCASIONAL EYE VISIBLE. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS JUST
WEST OF HILARY...AND IT IS UNKNOWN IF THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
INCREASED TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND ON THIS BASIS HILARY IS
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF HILARY...WHICH COULD BE RAPID...IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS
IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS AROUND 29C. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND
BRINGS HILARY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
BEYOND 72 HOURS...HILARY WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOWING RECURVATURE WHILE SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP HILARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS NEAR THE ECMWF MODEL.

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT HILARY IS A COMPACT HURRICANE WITH
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTENDING ABOUT 60 N MI FROM
THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 15.1N 98.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 15.6N 100.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 16.2N 102.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.1N 105.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 19.0N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 19.5N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[lilybeth]

She made it to a hurricane. That seemed quick! Question for those more knowledgeable...will she effect tides for Mexico?

[wxman57]

She made it to a hurricane. That seemed quick! Question for those more knowledgeable...will she effect tides for Mexico?

I suppose that large waves impacting the coast of Mexico could result in tides a foot or two above normal for the next few days. Generally, though, little impact that far east of the track.

[bg1]

If this does make it to major hurricane status, that will mean 50% of the tropical storms made it to Category 3 or higher in the Eastern Pacific. Going back to 1971, only the 1993 season had a higher ratio: 60% (9 MH out of 15 TS). And that was an El Nino year.

Contrast this with the Atlantic: 2 of 15, or 13.3%. I keep picking on the Atlantic Ocean because it seemed like conditions were much more favorable until we found out about the vertical instability, and wind shear picked up. I wonder if high instability is what's helping these storms in the Pacific.

[CrazyC83]

With the troughs getting deep, could they just steer Hilary into Mexico?