WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

[Typhoon Hunter]

Think it will be a few days yet before this cranks up looking at both ECMWF and the other models.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 21.3N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 22.0N 132.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[StormingB81]

With the size of it they say it will take a few days to..seems most of the model have it coming this way...we have seen though how it could just be nothing like a previous storm just did..

[StormingB81]

JTWC upgrades to Tropical Depression

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 21.3N 135.7E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 22.0N 132.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[StormingB81]

Well it is on the NRL site still awating JTWC site to upgrade

[Chacor]

20 kts on NRL at 12z, that is below the JTWC warning threshold so we'll see.

[StormingB81]

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.7N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.2N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.7N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.3N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 27.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 135.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 102021Z SEP 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 102030 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

JTWC keeping it very weak for the first forecast..maybe they dont want a repeat of the last storm..

[StormingB81]

[StormingB81]

Oh and go figure..it would hit on the weekend here..lol..well friday..same same..

[StormingB81]

I am used to seeing a whole bunch of cloud cover this storm looks odd...

[StormingB81]

Looks like it is starting to flare up..

[StormingB81]

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 21.2N 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.5N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.8N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.3N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.0N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 24.7N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 28.3N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 135.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z,
121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//

[StormingB81]

I cant post the track but they bringing it from 78 to 43 miles from Kadena....Bringing it closer..

[dexterlabio]

IMO it has a chance to become a TY.

[dexterlabio]

JMA

TD
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 12 September 2011

<Analyses at 12/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N21°20'(21.3°)
E135°10'(135.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°25'(21.4°)
E132°05'(132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Whats the name of this one if JMA decides to upgrade it? Witch at this time seems it may be a while. I'm not biting on this one to develop so quickly, it is sheered off and has a good amount of sheer ahead of it. Unless its conditions improve in the coming days it will remain weak.

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[Extratropical94]

I think it's Roke, followed by Sonca and Nesat.

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 120318
TCSWNP

A. 18W (NONAME)

B. 12/0232Z

C. 21.6N

D. 135.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC OF 18W..WHICH
IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED..FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND HAS BECOME ELONGATED ALONG
EAST/WEST AXIS. PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN 125-130E ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER TROF HAS AIDED IN ENHANCING ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND IS DISRUPTING LOW LEVEL INFLOW/CONVERGENCE ALONG WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF 18W. 3 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=2.0. MET AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1001.1mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.6 2.6