ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:19 am

This morning's discussion of 95L by Rob of Crown Weather.

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http://www.crownweather.com/

Tropical Disturbance In The Eastern Atlantic Designated Invest 95L Needs To Be Monitored:
I’m also keeping close tabs on a tropical wave, now designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center, that is located in the eastern Atlantic about 500 miles to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Some development of this disturbance is possible this week, however, the global model guidance indicates that development will wait until it is in the Caribbean in 6 to 8 days or so. It looks like that this disturbance will have plenty of moist air to work with and environmental conditions are favorable for development.

This is a system that definitely will need to be watched closely as a ridge of high pressure will strengthen as Katia pulls to the north and northeast later this week. This would mean that 95L would likely remain on a general westward track right into the Caribbean by the weekend. All of our Crown Weather friends in the Lesser Antilles should keep a close eye on 95L as it may be affecting you in about 6 to 8 days from now.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:28 am

underthwx wrote:is 95L at the lowest latitude out of all the systems to come off Africa so far this season?...


The 9.1N is the lowest in 2011. As I posted above,is much lower in latitude than where Katia was at the same longitude.
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#23 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:28 am

it sure does... :eek:
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#24 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:29 am

A weaker storm initially - lower in latitude as well. A potential Maria could definitely bomb out before the islands as well...
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#25 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:36 am

over/under 100 pages...i say over
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Re:

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:40 am

CronkPSU wrote:over/under 100 pages...i say over


Well,it depends on what track it takes. Katia is a great example of a track that does not atract many to that thread,only 60 pages at the time of this post. If is going to be a Caribbean Cruiser or a threat to the Bahamas and Florida I definitly go over.
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#27 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:41 am

Early call over...
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Re:

#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:42 am

Vortex wrote:Early call over...


I say WAY over.
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#29 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:42 am

I have a pretty good feeling that this thread will go well over 100 pages, especially when most likely 95L develops and gets designated a name storm and approaches the Caribbean next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#30 Postby chrisjslucia » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:46 am

I do hate that phrase " a vigorous tropical wave"!! That was Tomas's initial description last year...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#31 Postby jhpigott » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:46 am

If that ridge sets up the way the models are depicting after Katia clears out then I say easily over 100.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#32 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:00 am

chrisjslucia wrote:I do hate that phrase " a vigorous tropical wave"!! That was Tomas's initial description last year...


I found that first TWO on October 28 for the wave that gave birth to Tomas.

Link to TWO archieves. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/TWOAT/?C=M;O=D

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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#33 Postby BigA » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:03 am

Total guess at this point, but I think a lot of people will be asking themselves "How do you solve a problem like Maria*?" in the next two weeks. Gotta go with over too. Even if it only develops in the Caribbean like the Euro suggests, it's going to pick up a lot of posts from here to there.

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*Unless a TC develops in the Bay of Campeche first.
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#34 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:05 am

Look at the ridging the 00z Euro has at 168 hours. But the models are not too enthusiastic about development in the MDR...let's see if they come on board over the next couple of days.

I think that is 95l in the Eastern Caribbean :?:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#35 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:07 am

Image
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Re:

#36 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:08 am

BigA wrote:.

*Unless a TC develops in the Bay of Campeche first.


Well, if a system develops down in the BOC later this week, it may divert attention away from this thread for a short while. But, 95L, if the models verify a strong ridge building in later this week across the Atlantic, will still have plenty of attention believe me as time progresses.

Check out the Another GOM storm thread for more about the possible development in the BOC late this week.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#37 Postby Boriken » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:09 am

Contributing to the 100+ pages possibility with this one cause It really grab my attention this morning. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#38 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:24 am

SSD floater is up.

Image

Image

Saved images.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#39 Postby pricetag56 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:39 am

maria just has that name hurricane maria it sounds serious.
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#40 Postby O Town » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:49 am

Wow, thats a healthy looking wave. Nothing much stopping her unless she gains too much latitude. Shear is crazy just NW of it.....60kts



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