ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

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KWT
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#21 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:27 pm

120hrs and we have a stalled system that is strengthening, probably a minimal hurricane by this point...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#22 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:27 pm

12z Euro...120 hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#23 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:28 pm

I think tonight's 0z models will do pretty well as they will now have a LLC to initialize off of. Correct me if I'm wrong?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#24 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:29 pm

I don't think the GFS is an outlier...12z Euro shows this deepening and heading a little NNE at 96 hours. If it deepens like the Euro and that tough is swinging through like that, then a NNE movement seems probable imo.
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#25 Postby underthwx » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:29 pm

KWT wrote:ECM coming out right now folks, shows this developing quite well and starting to move east by 96hrs...




is that the Euro?...and is that the most reliable...
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#26 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:29 pm

If the 12z ECM is right somewhere is going to get a huge amount of rain!
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#27 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:31 pm

This gets really close to the coast before many of the models have it kind of changing direction or stalling. What if it makes it further north than expected and never gets a chance to sit over water and develop. We could end up with nothing but more rain than usual. Is that possible?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#28 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:32 pm

144 hours

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#29 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:33 pm

Stalls and then drops a little back to the SW by 144hrs, now down to 985mbs as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#30 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:33 pm

:uarrow:

Notice it starts to back the cyclone southwest ... those Texans on the ledge and ready to jump need to chill! :lol:

We have a long, long ways to go on this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#31 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:33 pm

Euro does not move this for 4 days so far
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#32 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:33 pm

KWT wrote:If the 12z ECM is right somewhere is going to get a huge amount of rain!


You are right, starting to wonder if it might be my neck of the woods. We would be NorthEast of any developing TC so we could be under a lot of rain and be there for a while if this moves as slowly as the models show.
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#33 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:34 pm

Its not out of the question that it ends up too far NW, there isn't a huge amount of room for error, however the models are in pretty good agreement at least about the formation location.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#34 Postby Nikki » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:34 pm

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Notice it starts to back the cyclone southwest ... those Texans on the ledge and ready to jump need to chill! :lol:

We have a long, long ways to go on this one.



Sorry portastorm, that would be me, :lol: All this stuff confuses me and I never know if it means Texas will get rain or not get rain, etc Imma dope when it comes to movement and stuff like that :oops:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#35 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:35 pm

OK folks, we've made the transition now and have two threads on Invest 93L. This thread is for discussion about the system itself, formation, current satellite, steering winds, obs., etc.

We have a model thread for 93L now as well and that is where you can discuss your thoughts on the various model runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#36 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:37 pm

:uarrow:

No, you're not a dope! You just want rain. Nothing wrong with that! :P

However, don't get hung up on every model run. It'll drive you bonkers. We should know a lot more by tomorrow afternoon on this system. First we have to get a surface low to form. Then the models will have something to work off of.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#37 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:37 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Euro does not move this for 4 days so far



its called a Rex Block.... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#38 Postby dwsqos2 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:38 pm

968 mb at hour 168 on 12z euro; yeah that's a little robust.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#39 Postby paintplaye » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:39 pm

I don't see the similarities between the gfs and Euro. While a NE track does happen at some point in the run, the ridge builds back in from the east and moves the storm off to the west and SW into the Texas coast. Still a lot of uncertainty.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#40 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Heads SW toward the south Texas coast at 168 hours...a stalled out or looping hurricane in the Gulf? This should be fun for forcasters :cheesy:
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