ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

Would probably depend on whether it develops or not. weak=west, strong would be recurve

[bella_may]

Well most of the models as of now don't show a recurve

[BigB0882]

Wouldn't the ridge that pushed Irene nearly into the US (or into the US, depending on what happens) block this from going north and force it on a continued westward motion? How could this go north, or is there a weakness in the far eastern atlantic?

[StormClouds63]

Irene and Jose (future) might be a Floyd/Gert replay from 1999.

Floyd: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/FLOYD/track.gif
Gert: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/GERT/track.gif

[bexar]

Isn't this thing moving NW like 98L? If so, this might end up like the latter too.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bella_may]

Isn't this thing moving NW like 98L? If so, this might end up like the latter too.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Moving due west as of now

[bigdan35]

I think if it stays week it may go further west to early to tell right now.










http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[KWT]

Possibly but I do suspect it'll recurve if it tries to develop, its just too far east to do anything else with the troughy set-up that is still somewhat present.

[KWT]

GFS is quite agressive with strengthen ing this system in the next 48hrs, probably making it Jose...

[OURAGAN]

It' s getting better organized

[cycloneye]

30%

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[KWT]

Models are quite keen on developing this at some point so odds are this one does develop into Jose, not sure how strong it will get but my gut would say possibly a hurricane.

[bella_may]

Well since Irene isn't affecting me,while everyone is waiting on the models to come out for it tonight, I'll be waiting on the models for this on

[bigdan35]

I believe this is 90L at 384hr mark.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384m.gif








http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[StormTracker]

How is the GFS's track record on intensity that far out KWT?

[Meso]

From the latest TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[shaggy]

After watching the massive model fail on Irene i'll worry bout 90L in around 7 days!

[N2FSU]

No sense in even speculating what it will do 10+ days from now. Look at how far off the models were on Irene 5 days out!

[Meso]

Up to 50%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 241239
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC WED AUG 24 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110824 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110824  1200   110825  0000   110825  1200   110826  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  25.0W   14.3N  26.5W   15.9N  28.0W   17.6N  29.7W
BAMD    13.0N  25.0W   13.4N  26.7W   14.1N  28.3W   15.2N  29.7W
BAMM    13.0N  25.0W   13.7N  27.0W   14.8N  28.9W   16.1N  30.4W
LBAR    13.0N  25.0W   13.3N  27.3W   14.0N  29.6W   14.9N  31.6W
SHIP        25KTS          35KTS          46KTS          58KTS
DSHP        25KTS          35KTS          46KTS          58KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110826  1200   110827  1200   110828  1200   110829  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.2N  31.3W   21.0N  34.9W   21.3N  38.9W   20.4N  41.4W
BAMD    16.8N  30.5W   20.6N  29.3W   24.3N  23.6W   27.1N  17.3W
BAMM    17.6N  31.4W   20.6N  32.4W   23.7N  32.5W   26.2N  33.4W
LBAR    16.1N  33.3W   19.5N  35.0W   23.9N  34.1W   28.7N  30.1W
SHIP        67KTS          72KTS          61KTS          49KTS
DSHP        67KTS          72KTS          61KTS          49KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.0N LONCUR =  25.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  12.9N LONM12 =  22.4W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  12.7N LONM24 =  20.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$