WPAC: TALAS - Remnants (1112/15W)

[StormingB81]

So I am guessing JTWC will upgrade it.. we will see..

[Chacor]

WTPQ31 RJTD 250000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1112 TALAS (1112)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 250000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[StormingB81]

Some were saying that this owuld pull Nanmadol towards Okinawa...but they also stated there is a high unknown

[StormingB81]

Nothing on NRL or JTWC..how odd is it for JMA to have it as a tropical storm and nothing on JTWC

[dexterlabio]

Some were saying that this owuld pull Nanmadol towards Okinawa...but they also stated there is a high unknown

Whatever that ridge may be is not that strong to block this away, and also now that the system near Guam has developed, it is likely that the possible interaction between the two cyclones will make Nanmadol track towards Southern Japan, and may also pass over Okinawa. IMO it is still crucial because we have no idea yet of the degree of interaction that will occur between Nanmadol and Talas. (by the way, I agree with you it is odd to have JMA has this named while JTWC still holds it as an invest )

[Chacor]

Nothing on NRL or JTWC..how odd is it for JMA to have it as a tropical storm and nothing on JTWC

Happens once every few years. Usually when the JMA feels a disturbance is tropical and the JTWC thinks it's subtropical. In this case more than likely the JTWC will catch up.

[euro6208]

i'm surprised jtwc hasn't upgraded this to our 15th storm!!!

[Chacor]

How about, JTWC isn't official and so it doesn't really matter?

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 18.6N 141.2E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 20.5N 140.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 270000UTC 21.5N 140.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 280000UTC 23.2N 140.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[Macrocane]

How about, JTWC isn't official and so it doesn't really matter?

Well for us on this side of the world is important as they used the same wind speed as NHC and it's easy to understand the intensities. Anyway, that's different for the people who lives in the basin I guess.

[Chacor]

Up to 40 kt, JMA forecasting it to reach TY strength between 24-48 hours.

WTPQ21 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 19.4N 140.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 21.8N 140.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 270600UTC 23.2N 140.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 280600UTC 25.0N 140.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[StormingB81]

Crazy how there is nothin on JTWC yet..maybe on this next update they will...

[phwxenthusiast]

JTWC is upgrading this to TD 15W by 06z (or 09z Advisory)...

[StormingB81]

Upgraded to Tropical Depression fifteen

[StormingB81]

JTWC has it as a tropical storm..

[phwxenthusiast]

JTWC has it as a tropical storm..

cool, thanks for mentioning that! both agencies (JMA and JTWC) seem to be expecting becoming a typhoon later this weekend...

[Chacor]

WTPN32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 140.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 140.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.8N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.2N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.0N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.8N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.8N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.9N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 27.2N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 140.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST WEST OF NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LONG
EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERIES, CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND IS THE CENTROID OF
SEVERAL VORTICES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF THE LLCC AND AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 42 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
POINT SOURCE AND SOUTHWEST OF A TROUGH. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING
EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, RESPECTIVELY, AS EVIDENCED ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE DATELINE JUST NORTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND. IT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO INTERACT WITH A
STRONG CYCLONE TO THE WEST, CAUSING A MOMEMTARY DEFLECTION TO THE
WEST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED AND WIDELY
SPREAD WITH WBAR ON THE EXTREME LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNLIKELY WESTWARD TRACK PROJECTED BY WBAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 241521Z AUG 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 241530). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z,
260300Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[euro6208]

How about, JTWC isn't official and so it doesn't really matter?

Well for us on this side of the world is important as they used the same wind speed as NHC and it's easy to understand the intensities. Anyway, that's different for the people who lives in the basin I guess.

exactly, jtwc uses 1 minute winds and jma 10 minute...

[euro6208]

iwo to in fire...



talas is so large, it nearly covers the entire open waters of the wpac!

[KWT]

It is a massive storm, if it gets further west then expected we'll probably see it start to effect our Typhoon...