EPAC: DORA - Remnants

[KWT]

Models still slowly coming onboard for a stronger system that could get close to hurricane status.

Now a medium risk as well!

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

SHIP intensity is up and now peaks at 68kts.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 171809
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1809 UTC SUN JUL 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942011) 20110717 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110717  1800   110718  0600   110718  1800   110719  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.0N  88.3W   10.2N  89.7W   10.6N  91.7W   11.3N  94.0W
BAMD    10.0N  88.3W    9.7N  90.2W    9.8N  92.0W   10.2N  93.7W
BAMM    10.0N  88.3W   10.1N  90.0W   10.6N  92.1W   11.4N  94.5W
LBAR    10.0N  88.3W   10.1N  90.5W   10.6N  93.3W   11.5N  96.4W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          42KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          42KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110719  1800   110720  1800   110721  1800   110722  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  96.4W   15.0N 100.7W   18.3N 103.6W   21.8N 105.5W
BAMD    11.3N  95.6W   14.4N  99.3W   17.8N 101.7W   20.2N 102.7W
BAMM    12.7N  97.0W   15.7N 101.8W   19.0N 104.9W   21.4N 106.6W
LBAR    12.8N  99.7W   15.9N 105.8W   18.2N 109.2W   19.9N 109.0W
SHIP        55KTS          68KTS          62KTS          61KTS
DSHP        55KTS          68KTS          62KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.0N LONCUR =  88.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  10.0N LONM12 =  86.4W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  10.1N LONM24 =  85.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Macrocane]

The rainfal accumulated yesterday was not very high, but most of it fell in just one hour that's why it felt so heavy. The station of UCA (a univeristy) just west of San Salvador measured for a few minutes a rain rate of 108 mm/h (4.32 inch/h). This map shows the rain that fell last night in the country (in mm). The highest accumulation was 61.5 mm (2.42 inches).

[cycloneye]

94E now has the SSD floater. It looks like it's organizing at a steady pace.

[KWT]

Yeah not developing too quickly but a slow steady progression seems likely and its got time to develop, conditions look decent enough as well.

[Rgv20]

Of the Global Models only the GFS and Nogaps brings 94E close to the west coast of Mexico but the GFS does not have the support of the Ensemble Members making both of them an outlier for now. ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET keep far enough out to sea that there would be minimal to no impact for the Coast of Mexico.

In regards to strength most intensity guidance peak 94E to just a TS. Would not be surprise if it would make a run at Hurricane intensity by the middle of the week.

12zGFS Ensembles



18zEarly Cycle Guidance

[KWT]

Yeah most models only go to TS strength, though the ECM probably would be close to a hurricane I suspect.

Models have been under-estimating EPAC systems this season.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 10N88W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TRYING TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE AREA WITHIN 240 NM OF THE SW SEMICIRCLE. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY W-NW REACHING NEAR 10N92W LATE
MONDAY...AND NEAR 12N96W LATE TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING...THUS FORECAST
ASSOCIATED WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM
OF CENTER BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN
POSITIONING AT 48 HOURS WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE ON
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

00:00z Tropical Models

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601
WHXX01 KMIA 180039
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0039 UTC MON JUL 18 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942011) 20110718 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110718  0000   110718  1200   110719  0000   110719  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.6N  88.9W   11.0N  90.8W   11.6N  93.1W   12.4N  95.6W
BAMD    10.6N  88.9W   10.5N  91.1W   10.8N  93.2W   11.4N  95.2W
BAMM    10.6N  88.9W   11.1N  91.0W   11.8N  93.3W   12.8N  95.8W
LBAR    10.6N  88.9W   10.9N  91.3W   11.8N  94.1W   12.9N  97.2W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110720  0000   110721  0000   110722  0000   110723  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  98.0W   16.4N 102.1W   19.8N 105.6W   22.8N 108.7W
BAMD    12.6N  97.2W   15.9N 101.0W   19.2N 103.6W   22.0N 105.2W
BAMM    14.1N  98.4W   17.0N 103.1W   19.8N 106.5W   22.1N 109.2W
LBAR    14.4N 100.4W   17.6N 105.7W   18.6N 107.6W   20.5N 109.6W
SHIP        54KTS          66KTS          66KTS          58KTS
DSHP        54KTS          66KTS          66KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.6N LONCUR =  88.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  10.0N LONM12 =  87.2W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  10.1N LONM24 =  85.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Macrocane]

First time that they show it peaking at hurricane intensity, I guess it's because they're predicting less interaction with land. I still don't see more organization than this morning but the models are in good agreement about rapid development. By the way it's raining again in El Salvador I will post the observations tomorrow.

[Florida1118]

Not to draw attention from the lovely Bret, but it appears he might get a cousin named Dora soon...

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR
AND GUATEMALA HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

[KWT]

Sure looks like its on its way to developing, looking more likely that its going to become a hurricane down the line, the longer it stays further south the more likely this becomes.

[Kingarabian]

It's beginning to wrap up pretty nicely.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942011_ep042011.ren
FSTDA

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BE DESIGNATED AS THE FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON.
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ONLY
T1.5/25 KT...NHC ADT ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. IN ADDITION...SHIP WDE5381 LOCATED ABOUT 70 NMI
NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN EAST WIND OF 31 KT AT 06Z.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A CONSERVATIVE 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
ARE FORECASTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO ERODE AFTER 72
HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THESE APPEAR TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS
GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THIS BROAD HEAT-WAVE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH
OF THE GFDL/HWRF TRACKS AFTER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR
TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION
THAT IS INDICATIVE OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM. MICROWAVE AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP
REPORT...ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A FAIRLY TIGHT INNER
CORE WIND FIELD. ALL OF THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...AN INHIBITING
FACTOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...SO ONLY
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. BY 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL OF THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS THROUGH 96 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE COLD WATER TROPICAL CYCLONE GRAVEYARD SITUATED
WEST OF 110W LONGITUDE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 10.7N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 12.3N 98.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 13.6N 101.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 16.6N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 18.8N 110.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

TD 4-E is a very impressive system, likely a precursor to a monster

[HURAKAN]

the track keeps the system away from Mexico